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18-04-2017, 10:29 AM
1

How do you think Brexit will affect France, Germany and other EU Countries?

Personally I should imagine that the result to leave will have far reaching repercussions for EU countries, especially France and Germany.

Take France for instance, the UK vote to leave must have given a real boost to Marine Le Pen’s National Front party with it’s anti EU and immigration policy and her promise to call a referendum on EU membership if she wins the election. To us here and our loathing of the National Front party, the fact that a National Front party is anywhere near winning a general election in a country such as France, shows the strength of distrust in the EU, surely? France has far more reason to leave the EU than even Britain did! At the very least because they are part of the Shenghen agreement, which thankfully, we never were.

Look at Germany, Merkel must be very nervous. Let’s face it, to most EU countries, especially Nordic countries such as Norway, Sweden and Denmark, Britain was one of the three big hitters in the EU, along with Germany and France, no doubt because of our diplomatic and security expertise, we must have been a very valuable member, (I know, hard to believe!)
Now that we are leaving, I wonder what Merkel’s thinking as she fights to regain unity within the EU. Both Germany and France must be worried as hell about contagion but I should imagine Merkle must be even more worried about Brussels being in the driving seat as they who must try to regain unity when she must know full well just how much the unelected elite are despised by so many.

Millions of voters in all EU countries share the same view as those who voted to leave here in the UK. Germany, as the heavy hitter,must be wondering what she has to do to regain unity. It hasn’t gone well so far, Think back to the global financial shock, the Greek rescue, The Ukraine conflict and her disastrous immigration policy where she acted and then forced other countries to follow her. If she is worried about Brussels, then obviously she, as the heavyweight so to speak, will have to take the reigns and then what do we have. Germany calling the shots!! I don’t think that will go down too well, with southern countries with their austerity policies. do you? She is going to be in a pickle really, If she appears too heavy handed she will be accused once more of using draconian and bullying measures, yet if she plays the quiet card for fear of being seen as overmighty, she will be leaving a vacuum for far right parties to fill, especially as is being witnessed now in France!

No wonder France is demanding that Britain should face consequences for leaving the EU. They must be bricking it!!

What are your views on this please?
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18-04-2017, 10:32 AM
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Re: How do you think Brexit will affect France, Germany and other EU Countries?

I think they must be worried the extra cost and with out us no one to blame for any problems. I can't feel sorry for them it was their fault we are going if wouldn't have taken much to keep us happy really.
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18-04-2017, 10:55 AM
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Re: How do you think Brexit will affect France, Germany and other EU Countries?

From what one member seems to believe, they will all be persuaded by what is written in their papers, just as she thought we were, when we decided to leave.
Everybody votes for their own personal reasons, so it looks like France will remain in the EU, but by a smaller majority than expected.
Germany suffered when she opened their doors to so many Muslim immigrants, so I would think that she may have lost a few votes. It would be interesting to know what German newspapers are reporting, about what will happen when Britain leaves, because those reports could affect how people vote in their general election.
If France, Germany, or even both, show signs of leaving the EU, I really think it will collapse, because even united together, the other countries don't have the ability to make it work, and many may not want to, because losing the 3 largest enconomies, will mean they have to pay more.
I just hope I live long enough to hear people say what a good choice Britain made, in their decision to leave the EU.
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18-04-2017, 11:22 AM
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Re: How do you think Brexit will affect France, Germany and other EU Countries?

I'm not sure that Germany and France will be next to leave the EU. After all, Germany effectively rules the EU and France thinks she does!

Other countries, however, are another matter.

Nett beneficiaries are probably less likely to leave the EU as, for them, membership is a good thing: they receive more than they pay in. On the other hand, Greece, for example, is being financially compromised and might well decide that enough is enough.

The middling countries, however, are in a position where they pay in more than they get out. Moreover, they are subject to the usual diktats and, being members of the Schengen agreement, leave themselves open to continuing infestation. I think there is a fair chance that some of these will be next to follow our lead.
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18-04-2017, 11:32 AM
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Re: How do you think Brexit will affect France, Germany and other EU Countries?

France and Germany will both lose out economically when we eventually leave because our contribution is roughly that of France so they will have to share out the burden. But that's not something beneficial for us because we need their trade. It's lose:lose economically and very expensive for everyone about ten years.

If there is less funding available for the smaller economies or those in trouble such as Greece, then they may end up breaking off with severe economic repurcussions. This would be disastrous for those in the Eurozone. With the situation in Turkey it could create instability in the Balkans again. There are so many possible negative permutations of the consequences. All of them will negatively affect our economy. I just can't see the good side and there's no point in our talents and export market if nobody can afford to pay for our goods in the nearest market because their economies are imploding. Our economies are very tied and reliant on each other.
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18-04-2017, 11:47 AM
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Re: How do you think Brexit will affect France, Germany and other EU Countries?

I think time will tell. We as individuals do not have a say it what happens even if we think we do and the fighting, squabbeling and name calling is all for nothing..

Except to show some people for what they really are. Bullies.
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18-04-2017, 01:14 PM
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Re: How do you think Brexit will affect France, Germany and other EU Countries?

Originally Posted by AnnieS ->
France and Germany will both lose out economically when we eventually leave because our contribution is roughly that of France so they will have to share out the burden. But that's not something beneficial for us because we need their trade. It's lose:lose economically and very expensive for everyone about ten years.

If there is less funding available for the smaller economies or those in trouble such as Greece, then they may end up breaking off with severe economic repurcussions. This would be disastrous for those in the Eurozone. With the situation in Turkey it could create instability in the Balkans again. There are so many possible negative permutations of the consequences. All of them will negatively affect our economy. I just can't see the good side and there's no point in our talents and export market if nobody can afford to pay for our goods in the nearest market because their economies are imploding. Our economies are very tied and reliant on each other.
It will be a very small burden because the EU won't be supporting any farming, environmental, or infrastructure projects in the UK anymore.
And let's not forget that the EU (with some help) supported th entire economies of four nations all pretty much at the same time and is still arguably the biggest economy on the planet. I doubt of 9 billion (a mere 1/20th of the UK NHS budget) will even be noticed.

And most of the French are horrified at what is happening in the UK. They want none of it.
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18-04-2017, 01:29 PM
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Re: How do you think Brexit will affect France, Germany and other EU Countries?

Horrified at what exactly ? Most of us are shuffling along as usual and some are doing better than usual. Some are losing out but not as many as predicted. And we haven't left yet.
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18-04-2017, 01:59 PM
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Re: How do you think Brexit will affect France, Germany and other EU Countries?

Hi

I do so wish we could get away from the fallacy that the EU will lose out when we leave.

It will not lose out financially at all.

It will lose out on direct payments most certainly, however it gains far more than that immediately because of the Tax receipts it will get from our Banking, Insurance etc , currently based in the UK, moving to the EU.

The individual EU Countries who will lose the most from Brexit are Ireland, The Netherlands and Denmark.

It is up to the EU has to how, if at all, it compensates them.

We are in for a rough time for several years, a very rough time, whilst we build new Trade Deals.

It is worth it though.
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18-04-2017, 02:05 PM
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Re: How do you think Brexit will affect France, Germany and other EU Countries?

I don't think Brexit will affect the other EU countries much. There are many other issues that will hurt them more, immigration etc.
Schadenfreude is not appropriate, I hope everyone does well.
 
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