Re: March 29th.
Originally Posted by
JBR
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Two things.
Firstly, I have every confidence that our negotiators will meet with success, not with the EU but with countries outside the EU. The proportion of our exports to the EU may well then become a good deal lower than the quoted 42%, as we begin to export more to other countries.
Secondly, it is more than possible that the EU will collapse: many have predicted it. It is not 'if', but 'when, and when it does, there are several countries presently in the EU who will welcome mutually beneficial trading agreements with us.
firstly our exports and imports to /from the EU are not going to significantly change, they will just become more expensive both ways unless a sensible negotiation stance is taken. It's our main market and there is no way it's going to go down a great deal. In fact it may increase if our entrepreneurial spirit is stimulated. If perhaps the government decide to do another U-bend and make it easier for people to trade from the UK rather than what I am seeing, which is that they are making everything here more difficult for small businesses.
To wish for the EU to collapse is to wish misfortune on our economy. If the EU is damaged by our departure or political infighting then we are equally damaged. It is unrealistic to assume that we will be unscathed in some separate universe. Like it or not our economies are global.
It is easy to assume that trade with the rest of the World will increase but much of the rest of the World is not as politically and economically stable as Europe. All it takes is a civil war to close a lucrative trade deal dead. On another thread you argued the point that we should stay out of global disputes. The point you are making would indicate an alternative strategy where we try to promote peace for mutual economic benefit. The most lucrative markets near to us are in Africa. This is why the US was meddling so much abroad. But why would we want to bother to do this when we have a great market so close by?