The EU will come running if we just leave.

Hi

This is not a logic I can subscribe to.

My reasoning is as follows.

I know it sounds tempting, with the EU exporting £90 Billion a year more to the UK than we do to the EU.

I will attempt to explain.

Three quarters of our Exports to the EU are Services.

Services are not covered by WTO Rules, goods are.

They could simply refuse to license our services, nothing we can do about it, not covered by the WTO Rules.

Banking and Insurance Services to the EU alone are worth £20 Billion a year to the UK in Tax, our net EU Contributions are less than £9 Billion.

The EU have already stated that they will have to move to the EU, the banks are already moving.

The EU will already be £11 Billion a year better off when we leave.

If we just leave and have a Hard Brexit, WTO Rules, they could just take the lot, another £30 Billion a year in Tax Loss to the UK.

That means a total loss to the UK of £40 Billion a year in Tax, that is twice as much as the current cost of Austerity.

Our Interest Payments on our National Debt have already gone up by £18 Billion a year, so we are facing a loss of £60 Billion a year.

The EU are no idiots, they know this and they know that we are desperately seeking a Transitional Period.

They also know that we do not have the systems in place to collect WTO Tariffs if we leave on 31st March 2019, they have.

They have far less to lose than we have, not only because of this, but because the EU is a much bigger Economy than the UK, vastly bigger..

An example.

You are fined £100 for a speeding offence.

You earn £1000 a month, it hurts, 10% of your Income.

Somebody else is fined the same.

They earn £8000 a month, 1.25% of your Income.

It will hurt the UK 8 times more than it will hurt the EU.

The EU have all the cards, it need not have been like this with proper planning.

I am totally disgusted by our Politicians.

Re: The EU will come running if we just leave.

I'm not so sure swim, I look at if this way most people actually selling or buying for us want us to be happy as they are of they will see job losses themselves. It's only politicians with this idea that we need punishing.
So it will depend who is more powerful the business men or the political ones.

I think we've recently showed our political class they aren't exactly in charge when push comes to shove.

Re: The EU will come running if we just leave.

Hi

I am an intensely boring person Julie.

Facts, facts and facts, the nature of my job.

Winning is important to me, no point in being an Expert Witness without the facts.

I was , in a previous life, quite high up in the scale of things.

I am no Snowflake, I say it as it is.

I was banned from negotiating with the French, I have my principles.

I hated being part of the system, if I had have chosen to join it I would now have now been on an Index Linked Pension of £75k a year, plus some very lucrative part time appointments.

My principles are more important than money, I cannot be bought.

Re: The EU will come running if we just leave.

I understand swim but I work much more on feelings and looking at a human angle. That's why we see these things differently I think. I can't imagine the German car manufacturers just saying ok we can't sell to U.K. When a lot of their jobs depend on us.

Re: The EU will come running if we just leave.

So what do we do

Do we/ can we withdraw our leaving the EU. I know that will upset people wanting to leave.

Do we have another referendum on leaving but this time with honest facts put before the people to confirm the people still want to leave after having those facts.

Do we just carry on, leave, and try to sort out the mess while we live through it.

How can we make the government knuckle down and do something. Surely the fact that T May did so badly in the election shows them that they are getting things wrong and people are fed up.

We seem to have dug ourselves a hole and the problem is we're still digging.
Precious time is being wasted on arguing about inter party politics rather than having the best people/brains being used to sort out this mess from both politics, businesses and anyone else we need to help us.

I'm not advocating conservative or labour, leave or remain as to be perfectly honest I'm just tired of it all now. Not just brexit but the whole political nonsense that's going on. I just want someone who will stand up and say enough is enough and get on with the job of doing what's best for the country.

Re: The EU will come running if we just leave.

It would be interesting, now that folk are aware of the chaotic lack of planning and broken promises, to have a poll.
I voted leave but would not if I'd known/ still would
I voted remain but would not now/ still would
Just to see if anyone would change their minds. It would have to be anonymous though cos some still wouldn't admit it!
If I knew how to do it...

Re: The EU will come running if we just leave.

I'd like to see a coilition of parties sat down sorting it out on our side, then just present it to them, I don't want to stay and they have said they don't want us to in so many ways. So we have to leave.

But listening to others who also work on facts the idea of just leaving sit as scary as swim says. Several businesses have spoken on lbc saying it's fine we will go to wto rates and they aren't scared to compete in that market.

Re: The EU will come running if we just leave.

Hi

They will still be able to sell to the UK that is really not an issue for them.

WTO tariffs are only 9.8% on cars, easily absorbable compared to the loss to the UK Economy of the|Banking Sector.

Under WTO Rules, the German Government could just subsidise them using the extra money they from a ban of our services Industry.

My estranged daughter is over there working, moving a major UK Bank out of the UK to Germany.

They have paid her two years Bonus in advance to go there, enough for her to buy a house in the Cotswolds, with land for her horses.

That is the reality of the situation.

We are going to be £Billions worse off.

We need not have been, but there we go.

Re: The EU will come running if we just leave.

Maybe we should just chuck ourselves overboard off Beachy Head right now like lemmings .

Re: The EU will come running if we just leave.

God the Four Brexetiers of the Apocolypse are in full doom and gloom mode.