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Flicker
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01-04-2017, 04:20 PM
21

Re: Brexit divorce bill

Originally Posted by swimfeeders ->
Hi

I was hoping for a degree of commonsense in these negotiations, unfortunately it now seems that we are heading for the very worst type of divorce.

This has not been helped by the vitriol poured out by some of our Politicians and certain sections of the media.

Things like we can can hurt them more than they can hurt us, Boris and his Nazi jibe, we will break up the EU etc were not very sensible.

They are determined to keep the EU together, so we are going to be taught some simple facts of life.

The EU is much bigger than us, the biggest Trading Bloc in the World.

The EU has trading agreements with 80 Countries, we have none of our own.

They have been brutal, when we leave, we leave not only the EU single market, we also leave all the 80 trading agreements as well.

Which means we will have to start from zero again.

The EU will be using their Economic clout to ensure that not one of the Countries involved starts negotiating with us until after we leave.

The EU is a much bigger market than the UK, so it will not be in these Countries interests to do so.

We have not got the Trade Negotiators to do this, the EU is keeping them, an offer they cannot refuse salary wise.

We have still got several hundred positions vacant.

To my mind, May has made a huge mistake in mentioning Security in the letter, it was a major bargaining point, best kept for when things got nasty.

It now seems inevitable that we are heading for the hardest of hard Brexits, which will do no one any good.

Such is life.

There are things we can do, all is not lost.

Whether or not we do them is another matter.

We could break Sanctions with Russia, open up a big market there, just acknowledge that the Ukraine is a basket case.

We continue in NATO, but spend our money here, not on defending Germany, which has refused to spend what we do on Defence.

We withdraw all Security Co operation with the EU, they completely rely on us for that, pull out of Europol and charge them for any info they need from GCHQ.

The EU has absolutely nothing like it.

We counter the EU by becoming a Tax Haven, a Singapore just outside the EU.

The EU is refusing to passport our Banks, we do the same to them, so Santander and Societe General get thumped, have to move an Head Office here and pay tax here.

If things get tough, then so be it, we must play tough also.

There is nothing we can do about Open Skies, that is a loser for us, and a big one.

We can also change our Benefits System, no in work Benefits for any immigrant for 5 years and any EU Immigrant coming here must require a Visa with a full Criminal History Disclosure.

As far as Merkel is concerned, who seems to be leading this, along with Hollande, a very simple response.

VW and Audi have been sued for Billions in the US for fiddling emissions standards.

We do exactly the same here, sue them, we are one of their biggest markets, it would cause them immense damage.

Nasty I know, but we are fighting for our future.

The gloves are off as far as the EU is concerned, we should respond.

We should also immediately charge any and all EU Migrant here the full costs of Medical Treatment, they charge us, we should charge them.

Admin Costs of charging are fully recoverable, so no problem at all.
Thank you SF for supporting all the points I made earlier.

However Breaking sanctions on Russia would cause a huge international row especially with the US...and if you want to make trade deals with the ROW it is not the best way to go.

NATO spending isn't putting money into a pot..it is what you spend on your own defence. Trump go it wrong too. Germany was not allowed to spend n defence for a long time so does not have the history of investment that other countries do.

I suggest cutting ties of security sharing would be a far worse outcome for the UK than for 27 other countries all cooperating.

Immigrants already cannot claim in work benefits for 4 years. Wouldn't change a thing. Anyone going into the UK already has a CR check at passport control. I have just been through and everyone is being checked now.

How would claiming emissions standard fraud hemp the UK in EU negotiations except to cause far more resistance? VW and Audi affairs have nothing to do with EU:UK settlement...they are private matters.

The EU migrant health is covered by their NI payments in their own home. If you cut them you will be inviting them to cut the UK expat health cover in retaliation...I am not sure you want to treat your citizens like that.

Never mind...I always said one day the UK will find out the truth of things instead of the lies and fantasies that led you to this spot. I didn't think it would be so soon!!
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AnnieS
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01-04-2017, 04:29 PM
22

Re: Brexit divorce bill

Originally Posted by Flicker ->
So simplistic.

It has nothing to do with annual payments.
The UK has signed up to various commitments including pensions for admin who work for the EU, contributions to joint projects such as space, the Airbus, research projects, educational contributions to Erasmus, all of which were started on the basis of financial support promised before.

Leaving without paying up means years of work down the pan and many jobs at risk.
It's both upfront annual payments for infrastructure & other projects committed to 2020, future pensions etc plus they want the annual contribution for single market membership and usual odds and sods not only for the 2 years but during any delayed departure arrangements.
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01-04-2017, 05:28 PM
23

Re: Brexit divorce bill

Originally Posted by AnnieS ->
Well that's just great. Where did you see this reported? Why go into article 50 if we don't even have a decent negotiating team?


Such is stupidity.



These are just like trying to dent a coat of armour with a toothpick. We just have to face facts, we no longer have much influence. It also appears they understand the system and how to apply constraints on us far better than we do. You only have to watch the select committees to understand why we are so poorly prepared...
Hi

Loads of reports about the staff shortages, one such is here

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/783...bs-negotiating

The professional journals are full of adverts as well, not just for the sctual negotiators but also for the technical staff to do the analsis which is needed even before Trade Negotions can begin.

There are literally thousands of schedules to be examined before we can start negotiations.

We cannot blame Nay for this, Cameron was so sure of winning he had done absolutely nothing.
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01-04-2017, 06:26 PM
24

Re: Brexit divorce bill

Originally Posted by Flicker ->
Thank you SF for supporting all the points I made earlier.

However Breaking sanctions on Russia would cause a huge international row especially with the US...and if you want to make trade deals with the ROW it is not the best way to go.

NATO spending isn't putting money into a pot..it is what you spend on your own defence. Trump go it wrong too. Germany was not allowed to spend n defence for a long time so does not have the history of investment that other countries do.

I suggest cutting ties of security sharing would be a far worse outcome for the UK than for 27 other countries all cooperating.

Immigrants already cannot claim in work benefits for 4 years. Wouldn't change a thing. Anyone going into the UK already has a CR check at passport control. I have just been through and everyone is being checked now.

How would claiming emissions standard fraud hemp the UK in EU negotiations except to cause far more resistance? VW and Audi affairs have nothing to do with EU:UK settlement...they are private matters.

The EU migrant health is covered by their NI payments in their own home. If you cut them you will be inviting them to cut the UK expat health cover in retaliation...I am not sure you want to treat your citizens like that.

Never mind...I always said one day the UK will find out the truth of things instead of the lies and fantasies that led you to this spot. I didn't think it would be so soon!!
Hi

Not entirely sure that I am supporting you in my statements.

Trump has a different outlook as regards Russia to the previous administration.

Large parts of the world have no sanctions on Russia, it is primarily an EU thing.

Germany has had 20 years to increase it's NATO spending, it agreed to do so and has not.

It is the richest member of NATO after the USA and it is a disgrace that it has not done so, even bankrupt Greece is paying it's obligations.

You are totally wrong in your assertion that cutting Security ties would be worse for the UK.

The EU is a totally disjointed mess, it has nothing like GCHQ and we currently provide the security info for free.

The EU should be paying for it, we are not a Charity.

The VW Audi emissions?

A few billions from them would help pay our exit bill.

The EU has been very pointed in the fact they are after every penny and that we are no longer part of the Club and should not expect any favours.

Fine, not part of the Club, we sue like the USA has.

The EU is insisting we pay a large fine for not meeting air quality standards.

Fine, we get VW Audi to pay it for illegally polluting our air.

You really should keep p to date on the Benefits thing.

Germany is proposing to cut EU Migrant Child Allowance Benefits in exactly the same way that they refused Cameron's request to cut them before the Referendum.

As for Medical Costs, I do agree with you on this one, entirely our own fault, we have not been claiming the costs, stupid us.

Time to change and charge the full amount, including admin costs.

As for Criminal Checks on EU Immigrants, your statement is just plain wrong.

The computer systems do not talk to each other

If they did , we not have so many EU Arrest Warrants floating around.
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Meg
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01-04-2017, 06:33 PM
25

Re: Brexit divorce bill

Originally Posted by AnnieS ->
It's both upfront annual payments for infrastructure & other projects committed to 2020, future pensions etc plus they want the annual contribution for single market membership and usual odds and sods not only for the 2 years but during any delayed departure arrangements.
It was pointed out on 'Any questions', when you belong to a club it is customary to pay for what you have had not what you might have in the future...
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01-04-2017, 07:32 PM
26

Re: Brexit divorce bill

Originally Posted by swimfeeders ->
Hi

Not entirely sure that I am supporting you in my statements.

Trump has a different outlook as regards Russia to the previous administration.

Large parts of the world have no sanctions on Russia, it is primarily an EU thing.

Germany has had 20 years to increase it's NATO spending, it agreed to do so and has not.

It is the richest member of NATO after the USA and it is a disgrace that it has not done so, even bankrupt Greece is paying it's obligations.


.
Did germany choose to join nato? The membership was to keep them down and it's worked to the point they aren't much interested in weapons and warfare.
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01-04-2017, 07:35 PM
27

Re: Brexit divorce bill

Originally Posted by Meg ->
It was pointed out on 'Any questions', when you belong to a club it is customary to pay for what you have had not what you might have in the future...
Depends on the terms of your commitments. Someone has already mentioned the reputational risk.plus some of this relates to inward investment.
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JBR
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01-04-2017, 07:42 PM
28

Re: Brexit divorce bill

Originally Posted by AnnieS ->
Did germany choose to join nato? The membership was to keep them down and it's worked to the point they aren't much interested in weapons and warfare.
Then NATO (America) should pull out and leave them to it.

Or, perhaps more accurately, leave them to Russia!
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AnnieS
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01-04-2017, 07:47 PM
29

Re: Brexit divorce bill

Originally Posted by JBR ->
Then NATO (America) should pull out and leave them to it.

Or, perhaps more accurately, leave them to Russia!
That would mean leaving us to Russia too. Germany probably has a better relationship with Russia than we do.
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01-04-2017, 08:25 PM
30

Re: Brexit divorce bill

Originally Posted by AnnieS ->
That would mean leaving us to Russia too. Germany probably has a better relationship with Russia than we do.
Hi

Your misunderstanding of the situation is amazing.

Russia lost 26 Million Citizens during WW2 due to Germany.

They do not forget, Germany is Russia's Public Enemy No 1.

The USA is arriving at a deal with Russia about Assad and Syria, the USA has publicly stated that the removal of Assad is no longer a priority, the joint priority is the destruction of ISIS.

Trump will give them their warm water port and the Crimea, a very sensible decision.
 
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