Re: Why Won't You Walk Away, Mrs May?
What the UK does not seem to understand is gthat you are not negotiating with a country which has the right to change its mind or bend to circumstance.
It is negotiating with a set of rules agreed by 28 countries including the UK.
and more specifically to Brexit it is negotiating with a set of rules agreed by 27 countries.
Barnier is merely putting those rules into practice; He has no legal right to change them.
What the UK wants is that he does.
and what I don't get is that the UK seems to forget what those rules are and tries constantly to redefine them. To assume the EU will bend them for the UK.
The EU cannot and will not. There is no reason to and doing so would mean no one in the EU could ever again know that what they decided will be carried out.
As for leaving with no deal here are some effects of that:
Since this would mean WTO tariffs on everything the UK imports and exports, every lorry at every post and airport and the Channel Tunnel would have to be checked for how many of whatever goods is being transported and the appropriate fee charged. There are thousands of goods at different tariffs. The appropriate fee would be somewhere buried in a rather large book of sums to be charged.
Meanwhile, live animals and all other perishables would be stuck at ports for possibly days.
Since the UK is allowed to fly in and out of the country (licenced to fly) because it has agreements concerning safety and identity (planes' parts must be over 50% of EU origin is one) then all planes in and out of the UK would be grounded until a new licence is granted...if it is. It is called the Open Skies policy if you want to read up on it.
Then the UK pound would seriously tank. Everything you manage to get to UK consumers would be vastly more expensive.
The source of many UK medicines is the EU. Because you would no longer be licenced to receive them you would not get them.
The remaining small percentage of inward investment that is left even today would stop. Your competitiveness would disappear both because of the drop in the value of the pound and because over time your production capacity will fall. That leads to unemployment.
companies which employ tens of thousands of people will move to the EU. They have already said so and frankly I wouldn't call their bluff; they have to make a profit.
So the rise in the jobless would mean a run on benefits, leaving little money for other spends by the govt. and a fall in tax take. Far lower spending equals less business turnover and shops going put of business even faster than now. More unemployment.
Right after "just walking away" all goods would have to be assigned a tariff according to WTO rules. Meat and dairy products would overnight go up over 20% on all imports and be 20% more expensive to others.
All trade deals you now have would cease to exist overnight.
Your national security would be in serious trouble since a lot of it is coordinated thru the EU.
So the EU knows you are bluffing. But go ahead. Have a hissy fit. Stick it to them. Stomp out the door. Good luck.