08-09-2017, 11:37 PM
51
Re: No Deal is better than a Bad Deal.
Originally Posted by moscow
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the economic argument was only one aspect of the leavers' reasons for voting leave.
There were political reasons also , such as the eu's unilateral decision to push an agenda of ever closer union , it's programme of expansionism and it's totalitarian response to the crises in many southern european economies. Also it's response to the migrant crisis was slow, ineffective and contrary to the wishes and sensibilities of most british voters.
There is a deeply held belief amongst leavers that the uk will come through the initial negatives of leaving the eu and thrive regardless. There is no tangible proof that won't happen.
There is evidence from juncker's and barnier's shocking , consistently angry attitude towards the uk and these negotiations that they are only interested in the money they can wring from us and not in the future relationship with us. They are pigs( drunken pigs in juncker's case, apparently)
with their noses in the trough filled with british cash.
The idea that we will lose all trade with eu countries is the big lie of the remain argument and no-one really buys it.
As for the £ losing value..... It needed re valuing and the uk has had some major benefits in seeing the £ being devalued!!
09-09-2017, 04:33 AM
52
Re: No Deal is better than a Bad Deal.
Originally Posted by Moscow
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The economic argument was only one aspect of the Leavers' reasons for voting Leave.
There were political reasons also , such as the EU's unilateral decision to push an agenda of ever closer union , it's programme of expansionism and it's totalitarian response to the crises in many southern European economies. Also it's response to the migrant crisis was slow, ineffective and contrary to the wishes and sensibilities of most British voters.
We were sitting outside the ever closer union - we opted out. We were not in the Euro, we were not in Schengen. We should not have had a migrant crisis - we did not control our borders using the EU rules. We do not have effective systems for controlling use of the health service and other services by EU nationals. We do not use EU deportation rules for EU nationals. We do not have ID cards so we don't know who is doing what.
Originally Posted by Moscow
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THere is a deeply held belief amongst Leavers that the UK will come through the initial negatives of Leaving the EU and thrive regardless. There is no tangible proof that won't happen.
Originally Posted by Moscow
->
There is evidence from Juncker's and Barnier's shocking , consistently angry attitude towards the UK and these negotiations that they are only interested in the money they can wring from us and not in the future relationship with us. They are pigs( drunken pigs in Juncker's case, apparently)with their noses in the trough filled with British cash.
Originally Posted by Moscow
->
The idea that we will lose all trade with EU countries is the big lie of the Remain argument and no-one really buys it.
Originally Posted by Moscow
->
As for the £ losing value..... it needed re valuing and the UK has had some major benefits in seeing the £ being devalued!!
All I can see is that for ordinary people here there is not much benefit in a fall in Sterling. A press release from the BCC this week :
"Our forecast suggests that the hoped-for rebalancing of the UK economy towards investment and export is unlikely to materialize in the medium term. The rising upfront cost of doing business in the UK, the uncertainty around Brexit, and the constraints created by skills gaps and shoddy infrastructure collectively outweigh any benefit arising from the recent depreciation of sterling.A cheaper currency does not automatically mean an export boom, no matter how some politicians and commentators will it to happen."
"“It is increasingly clear that the post-EU referendum slide in the value of sterling has done more harm than good. Inflation is being driven by the sizable increases in the cost of imported raw materials over the past year, and is expected to remain a drag on consumer spending over the near term, with pay growth not expected to outpace price growth until 2019."
"“Although there remains considerable uncertainty over UK’s growth prospects, the risks to our current outlook are to the downside. On Brexit, our forecast implicitly assumes a relatively smooth exit from the EU. A more sudden departure would be likely to trigger a far more marked weakening in economic conditions.”"
http://www.britishchambers.org.uk/pr...uk-growth.html
09-09-2017, 05:44 AM
53
Re: No Deal is better than a Bad Deal.
HiOf course we will continue to trade with the EU.
No deal however means WTO Rules, which do not cover Services, which are by far our biggest Exports to the EU.
The CEO of Jaguar Land Rover, the biggest car manufacturer here in the UK has done the calculations, he was on TV.
40% of the parts for the vehicles they build in the UK come from the EU on which WTO Duties are payable when we leave, then they build the vehicle here and export it to the EU, which is their biggest export market and again WTO Duties are payable.
That combined with the fall in the value of sterling, would reduce their profits from £1.6 Billion to £600 million.
Tata is Indian owned, the decision on whether to continue production in the UK will be taken in India, not here in the UK.
The fall in the value of £Sterling was not taken by the UK, it was taken by the International Money Markets.
We owe so much money that there is naff all we can do about the value of £Sterling, it is decided abroad.
The fall in the value has already increased our Interest Payments by £18 Billion a year, hardly an advantage or a bonus.
I am not convinced that the present Government has planned properly for leaving nor am I convinced by their negotiating strategy.
Leaving was also going to hurt in the short term, emphasis on the short term.
The Government need to get a move on to make the term as short as possible.
09-09-2017, 07:49 AM
54
Re: No Deal is better than a Bad Deal.
Originally Posted by AnnieS
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Yes one of my points was that if you ask ten leave voters why they voted leave you will get 20 reasons. If you ask ten remain voters you will get one reason. Reasons for leaving are scattered and vague, based on superstition, rumour, emotive media reports, fear, political fairy tales. We had every opportunity to take control over the years. But it's been expedient for most countries to let Germany lead. I disagree. It's the Remainers who were vague and unable to lay down an argument for staying . They wanted 'The Status Quo' were frightened of change and are servile to the excesses and self serving ethos of the unelected autocrats. They also had ZERO empathy with their fellow citizens whose lives were being severely and negatively impacted by EU membership. Remainers had an 'I'm all right Jack, sit down, shut up' attitude. The EU proved, after Cameron's failed attempt, they were not for changing and that their agenda, vision and direction of travel was to be accelerated, uncompromising and not up for debate.
We were sitting outside the ever closer union - we opted out. We were not in the Euro, we were not in Schengen. We should not have had a migrant crisis - we did not control our borders using the EU rules. We do not have effective systems for controlling use of the health service and other services by EU nationals. We do not use EU deportation rules for EU nationals. We do not have ID cards so we don't know who is doing what.
Sort of proves why the UK and the EU are not compatible.
There's that word again - belief. Snake oil, Santa and faries at the bottom of the garden. Fact is we don't know what will happen. The World is about to change radically. The EU will change along with it. The House of Lords were debating the digital revolution the other day. One peer made the point that there is a big debate about Uber when pretty soon there will be driverless taxis and how will they regulate that. While we are wasting Parliamentary time splitting hairs over the legalities of Brexit, the world is moving on and we have no focus on the real issues. It's a massive waste of energy, resources, money, etc.
I'm afraid this statement shows your contempt for Leave voters and is a bad reflection on your attitude. The future can only be assessed based on an individual's understanding and belief and Remainers do not have a better Crystal Ball, so quite why you choose to disparage a constituency of 17 million people just because they have a different political outlook is beyond me. Perhaps you can explain.
Emotive words. We have chosen to leave. We can't complain if they want the best terms for the union after our departure. It's a situation of our own making.
I disagree. The EU negotiators have a duty to negotiate with us' as a current member and future trading partner, in an honest, respectful and positive way. We don't need their insults and we don't need their lies and we don't need them to try punishing us like naughty children.
In a divorce case, would you condone an estranged husband verbally abusing his former wife because she had made the tough, heart wrenching decision to Leave? Would you condone his attempt to hold on to all the joint assets and then overvaluing his contribution to the joint finances?
You should be getting angry at the EU for their attitude to the UK.
We haven chosen to Leave a bad relationship, we haven't murdered a child.
We won't lose trade. I have consistently said that we will continue to trade with the EU. It will just be more expensive and difficult than it is now. It will be more difficult for business and more difficult for consumers. It will take years to work out the nitty-gritty detail that most of us weren't even aware of. Things like medicines, air-space, research programmes, telecoms, power etc. ad infinitum all need resolution. The mountains of variations to contracts and integrated systems are going to be unbelievable. Even if they decide not to change some things they still need scrutiny.
We know all that, and fully accept it. Let's get on with it!
Could you provide some evidence of benefits. It indicates a fall in confidence of our economy if people stop buying sterling. There was a report in the last couple of days that our exports are not rising despite the low value of sterling. I can't see any value in lower sterling for imports. Our manufacturing industries were decimated long ago.
There is a lot of manufacturing going on and we will see a lot more created. You seem to want your cake and eat it as you say lower Sterling will not help exports and will not help imports. It can't be both.
There will be as many benefits as negatives and the Sterling falls are mainly due to uncertainty and not the underlying strength and potential of the UK economy and ergo will improve was there is more clarity re Brexit.
All I can see is that for ordinary people here there is not much benefit in a fall in Sterling. A press release from the BCC this week :
"Our forecast suggests that the hoped-for rebalancing of the UK economy towards investment and export is unlikely to materialize in the medium term. The rising upfront cost of doing business in the UK, the uncertainty around Brexit, and the constraints created by skills gaps and shoddy infrastructure collectively outweigh any benefit arising from the recent depreciation of sterling.A cheaper currency does not automatically mean an export boom, no matter how some politicians and commentators will it to happen."
"“It is increasingly clear that the post-EU referendum slide in the value of sterling has done more harm than good. Inflation is being driven by the sizable increases in the cost of imported raw materials over the past year, and is expected to remain a drag on consumer spending over the near term, with pay growth not expected to outpace price growth until 2019."
"“Although there remains considerable uncertainty over UK’s growth prospects, the risks to our current outlook are to the downside. On Brexit, our forecast implicitly assumes a relatively smooth exit from the EU. A more sudden departure would be likely to trigger a far more marked weakening in economic conditions.”"
http://www.britishchambers.org.uk/pr...uk-growth.html
09-09-2017, 08:22 AM
55
Re: No Deal is better than a Bad Deal.
HiIn response to the above.
The EU are conducting negotiations totally in accordance with Article 50 and Article 218.
Nowhere in those does it state that the EU must take into account our wish to order the negotiations in the way that we want them.
It was our opening gambit that no deal is better than a bad deal, that is our preffered option.
The EU must solely have regard to any future relationship, which may or may not include a Trade Deal.
The UK has stated categorically that we wish to leave the Single Market.
The EU are perfectly entitled to conclude that it is in their interests simply to trade with the UK on WTO Rules as it does with the vast majority of the World quite successfully..
You must remember that our strategy is being lead by our Prime Minister, a lady who called and Election which everyone thought was a sure fire win and then managed to lose her majority.
If she could not win against Corbyn there is little hope of winning against Merkel and Co.
09-09-2017, 10:20 AM
57
Re: No Deal is better than a Bad Deal.
Originally Posted by Moscow
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There is a lot of manufacturing going on and we will see a lot more created. You seem to want your cake and eat it as you say lower Sterling will not help exports and will not help imports. It can't be both. There will be as many benefits as negatives and the Sterling falls are mainly due to uncertainty and not the underlying strength and potential of the UK economy and ergo will improve was there is more clarity re Brexit.
It will affect exports if we import components. If prices of raw materials imported go up then exports won't see the benefits & profits fall. Internally it will increase the prices of goods. Any advantage is only temporary until 2019 unless they manage to secure a transitional deal on trade.
The benefits envisaged by politicians are not predicted by the BCC. The report they have made is based on a favourable scenario that we achieve a smooth transition. If there is a falling out during negotiations then their predictions will be far less optimistic.
The British Chambers of Commerce are a respected body and their reports are taken seriously.
09-09-2017, 10:23 AM
58
Re: No Deal is better than a Bad Deal.
Originally Posted by Moscow
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The BBC, lol.......That's a news organisation. Not something I would use to formulate opinions or policies by
09-09-2017, 11:06 AM
59
Re: No Deal is better than a Bad Deal.
Oh dear. The forecast is becoming gloomier and gloomier.Why am I not feeling gloomy, then?
Answer: because I think much of this prophesy of doom will have been forgotten in a few years.
After all, this is largely the upset remainiacs whingeing because they lost the referendum.
What would be best for the country is if everyone could pull together for a change. Unlikely, of course, because we have a long history of pulling in opposite directions!
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