Re: Why the EU is collapsing
Originally Posted by
JBR
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I'm absolutely convinced that it is so.
Theresa may insist that she's going slowly to get the best deal possible for the country, but at the same time we are still paying hand over fist for nothing.
I'm in favour of an immediate hard Brexit on the grounds that I believe the EU will come crawling back to us when they realise they have lost one of their best markets, along with such things as an excellent source of intelligence and security information.
Hi
I have to disagree.
The EU will not lose one of their best markets if we immediately have a Hard Brexit.
We would immediately revert to WTO Rules, that means Tariffs.
We have no way of collecting them, the EU has.
The EU will come crawling Back?
Nope, it will hurt them, but only 3% of the EU GDP is Exports to the UK, !3% of our GDP is Exports to the EU.
In simple terms it will hurt us 4 times as much as it will hurt them.
The second thing is this, we export more services to the EU than we do manufactured goods.
Services are not subject to WTO Rules.
So, we will lose the Tax from them, which is 8 times the amount of money that we pay the EU.
So the EU will not be short of money when we leave, they will be Billions better off.
The reality is this, we will not save a penny if we went for an immediate Hard Brexit, it will cost us.
The other thing is this, if we break International Treaties, we send a signal, we cannot be trusted, so who would want a Trade Deal with a Country who would break it without any notice?
There needs to be a sense of reality here.