Originally Posted by
swimfeeders
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Hi
The truth is Brexit is going to hurt, how much nobody knows.
This is because Dopey Dave has done it wrong.
He should have invoked Article 50, the we want to leave bit and then negotiated before we had a referendum.
We would then have been faced with a choice,
Do we leave?
Staying in will cost us £X
If we leave, this is the deal we will get.
He didn't so we have no idea what it will cost.
If you are voting Out to control Immigration, forget it.
Both Norway and Switzerland who have good deals with the EU have them on two conditions.
The first one is they have to abide by EU Regulations.
The second one is the kicker.
Both Norway and Switzerland
have to accept free movement of EU Citizens to live and work there.
So we will be no better off in that respect.
The EU have made it perfectly clear that that rule will apply to the UK as well and two Countries, Romania and Bulgaria have already stated that they will boycott any change to that rule.
Many people are unaware of this, but it is what will happen.
That leaves us with one option, we trade with the EU on the WTO Terms.
It will not kill us, other Countries trade on that basis, but it is going to be a big hit for years until we build up alternative Markets for our exports.
There will be no savings at all from leaving the EU for the next few years, we still have to pay them until Dopey Dave has finalised negotiations, which is a maximum of 2 years.
We will then have to cope with the aftermath of us leaving, which will cost in terms of paying back what we owe them for EIB Loans etc.
There will also. of necessity, be more unemployment until we find different markets for our goods.
All of which we can cope with, difficult, costly and if Dopey Dave had done it differently, mostly avoidable.
However the big unknown is this, the International Money Markets.
We have no control over these at all, we owe £1.5 Trillion to them and need to borrow £70 Billion a year just to keep going, even with all the cuts we have had so far.
If they downgrade us, our Interest Payments go up, we are short of cash to keep going, the cost of investments for our Industry goes up and we are in a Credit Squeeze.
The Bank of England has built up reserves of £88 billion in case this happens, enough to keep us going for a year and to defend the £ for three weeks to stabilise the markets.
If that is not enough, we are in a serious devaluation situation.
Remember the the £ in your pocket line?
That means a hefty dose of Inflation and rising Interest rates, an economic double whammy which will hit the vast majority of people.
The big International Money lenders and speculators will make a mint, £Billions in a very short time, as will the rich here in the UK, higher Interest rates means more income if you have a few £ million in the bank.
I am still voting for out, but I have made plans, most of my shares are gone, my cash is not in £Stirling, it is in other currencies.
The £ has gone down by 10% against those currencies since November when I shifted it.
I am no great financier, never have been, but my two kids, who both want to stay in the EU, are much better at finance than I am so I am doing what they advised.
They both want to protect their inheritance.
Sod father, lets look after our money.
I can't say that I blame them.