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11-10-2020, 05:52 PM
31

Re: Post-Covid Brain fog

Originally Posted by Morticia ->
Omah, I don't think for one moment that anyone is advocating ignoring sensible precautions such as face masks and distancing
Of course they're not - they don't want appear stupid .....

But, if everyone obeys the rules and takes precautions how are 70% of the population to be infected in the shortest possible time in order to achieve the mythical "herd immunity" .....

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...of-coronavirus

Is herd immunity really a panacea whose time has come? Can it lift the curse of Covid from the world? Many UK scientists counsel caution.

As they point out, only 8% or so of the British population has been infected with the Covid-19 virus. “To get to herd immunity we would need that to reach around 70%,” said Sir Robert Lechler, president of the Academy of Medical Sciences. “Not only are we a huge way off this but we now know that immunity to Covid-19 decreases over time, and that people can be re-infected with the virus.”

For this reason, scientists argue that it is very unlikely that herd immunity could be sustained without a vaccine or regular reinfection. More to the point, if attempts were made to achieve herd immunity by lifting lockdown restrictions, there would be a vast increase in excess deaths, mainly among the old and the vulnerable. NHS services would be overwhelmed while high numbers of “long Covid” cases would have long-term consequences even for those who suffer only mild initial symptoms.
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11-10-2020, 06:35 PM
32

Re: Post-Covid Brain fog

Thing is Omah .... you tell me then how you think it should be handled?

Were there a limitless amount of money to fund vaccine development, support the economy, support the NHS ... it would be a no-brainer.
Clearly you believe everyone should stay at home until Covid has gone.
So how long would that take? Any idea what that would cost?

Especially as you've recently started another thread telling us the virus can live for 28 days on paper and phone screens and hard surfaces.

I'm afraid it is you that is blinkered.
The financial cost can't really be overlooked in favour of a simplistic happy clappy view.
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11-10-2020, 06:52 PM
33

Re: Post-Covid Brain fog

Originally Posted by Morticia ->
Thing is Omah .... you tell me then how you think it should be handled?
I wouldn't be so presumptuous .....

Originally Posted by Morticia ->
I'm afraid it is you that is blinkered.
Don't be afraid - I'm not .....
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11-10-2020, 06:56 PM
34

Re: Post-Covid Brain fog

Originally Posted by Morticia ->
Clearly you believe everyone should stay at home until Covid has gone.
Clearly, I don't .....
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11-10-2020, 07:01 PM
35

Re: Post-Covid Brain fog

So what you're saying is .... you're tenaciously hoping for the best outcome , whilst I'm observing the governments flim flam and realistically preparing for the worst.

I'm just distrustful by nature ... you know it's those damn bushy caterpillar eyebrows you've got that do it.
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11-10-2020, 07:02 PM
36

Re: Post-Covid Brain fog

Originally Posted by Omah ->
Clearly, I don't .....
Ah progress. So you do have an opinion on what direction the government should take then?

* This is like pulling teeth *
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11-10-2020, 07:11 PM
37

Re: Post-Covid Brain fog

Originally Posted by Morticia ->
Ah progress. So you do have an opinion on what direction the government should take then?

* This is like pulling teeth *
I leave that up to experts - presumably you are one .....
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11-10-2020, 07:36 PM
38

Re: Post-Covid Brain fog

Now now cheeky .... I guess you'll just have to place your faith in the government then.
You did say experts didn't you? But not , specifically, experts at what.
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11-10-2020, 08:03 PM
39

Re: Post-Covid Brain fog

Originally Posted by Morticia ->
So what you're saying is .... you're tenaciously hoping for the best outcome , whilst I'm observing the governments flim flam and realistically preparing for the worst.
I wasn't saying that ..... and I don't see a "best outcome" but I am closely observing BJ's debacle while stocking up with beer, biscuits and cheese for the duration .....
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11-10-2020, 08:24 PM
40

Re: Post-Covid Brain fog

Originally Posted by Morticia ->
Now now cheeky .... I guess you'll just have to place your faith in the government then.
You did say experts didn't you? But not , specifically, experts at what.
Here's couple:

David Jones - Faculty of Arts and Sciences, Faculty of Medicine, and Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA

Stefan Helmreich - MIT Anthropology, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA

and an article which they contributed to The Lancet:

A history of herd immunity

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/l...924-3/fulltext (extract)

The phrase, herd immunity, seems to have first appeared in the work of American livestock veterinarians concerned about “contagious abortion”—epidemics of spontaneous miscarriage—in cattle and sheep. By the 1910s, it had become the leading contagious threat to cattle in the USA. Farmers destroyed or sold affected cows. Kansas veterinarian George Potter realised that this was the wrong approach. Writing with Adolph Eichhorn in 1916 in the Journal of the American Veterinary Medical Association, he envisioned “herd immunity”. As he wrote in 1918, “Abortion disease may be likened to a fire, which, if new fuel is not constantly added, soon dies down. Herd immunity is developed, therefore, by retaining the immune cows, raising the calves, and avoiding the introduction of foreign cattle.”

The appeal of herd immunity is easy to understand: if it is reached, an epidemic ends. But the illness and death such an approach would require invariably prompts a strong backlash. The language of herd immunity is part of the problem. A herd usually describes domesticated animals, especially livestock. Herd animals like cows, goats, or sheep are sacrificed for human consumption. Few humans want to be part of that kind of herd.

With potential vaccines for COVID-19 still likely to be many months away, and with lockdowns and social distancing causing social and economic disruption, there are no ideal options. British public health expert Raj Bhopal likened the situation to being in zugzwang, “a position in chess where every move is disadvantageous where we must examine every plan, however unpalatable”. He sought to overcome the animal connotations of “herd immunity” by encouraging the use of “population immunity” instead. Changing the label of herd immunity might remove the connotations but not fix the problem. Without a vaccine, many people would have to die from COVID-19 before population immunity is achieved.
Of course, no-one wants their granny to die but, in the pursuit of herd immunity, she probably will .....
 
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