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Zaphod
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06-02-2021, 12:46 PM
71

Re: Dido Harding will face MPs on Wednesday 3 February

Originally Posted by Dextrous63 ->
Perhaps beyond the remit of this thread, but what I don't really understand is why, with a seemingly highly effective TT system which outperforms so many other countries, we underperform so badly in suppressing the infection rate and its sad corollaries.
That is probably really very simple.
Far too many people just are not being sensible enough to prevent cross-infection.
There really can be no other logical explanation.

I'm not a fan of anecdotal evidence as you have probably noticed, but simply looking around you (when of course you are on an essential journey) will show that theory to have considerable merit.
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06-02-2021, 01:48 PM
72

Re: Dido Harding will face MPs on Wednesday 3 February

Originally Posted by Zaphod ->
That is probably really very simple.
Far too many people just are not being sensible enough to prevent cross-infection.
There really can be no other logical explanation.

I'm not a fan of anecdotal evidence as you have probably noticed, but simply looking around you (when of course you are on an essential journey) will show that theory to have considerable merit.
True. It's a pity that, now that TT appears so successful, so many people don't seem to take heed and are willing to break the one obvious rule that would suppress the spread. Even more so, given that vaccination is being rolled out at such an impressive rate.
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17-02-2021, 03:50 AM
73

Re: Dido Harding will face MPs on Wednesday 3 February

Contact tracing may cut the coronavirus R rate by as little as 2%, Test & Trace chief Dido Harding admits in letter to MPs

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...ng-admits.html

Baroness Harding said in a report to Parliament's science committee that the act of tracking down people who have been close to Covid-19 cases has only a 'relatively small' effect on the R rate of the virus.

The letter, published today, estimates that the UK's entire test, trace and isolate system would keep the R down by between 18 and 33 per cent in a scenario similar to October 2020, when there were an average of 19,000 cases per day.

It became less effective when the outbreak got bigger in November, December and January, and when the fast-spreading new variant took over, Baroness Harding admitted.

She said: 'The impact of contact tracing alone reduced the R number by 2-5% (with testing and self-isolation accounting for the remaining 16-28%).'

If the R rate were 0.9 – the maximum value for the UK now, as estimated by SAGE on Friday – a 2% reduction would cut it to 0.882. A 5% drop would cut it to 0.855.
In a report published alongside the letter Test and Trace chiefs said it was unlikely the service would improve on this, saying: 'The impact of contact tracing is relatively small. Even with small changes or improvements to the model, it is not expected that the impact of contact tracing will change drastically. It would remain of the same order of magnitude.'

The admission led critics to question whether NHS Test and Trace's eye-watering £22billion budget is good value for money.
TnT is patently a complete waste of money and "Incompetent" Harding is a complete waste of space .....

I suspect that even an independent investigation into TnT would fail to reveal worse figures - the £22,000,000,000 "service" has proved totally inconsequential .....
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17-02-2021, 08:54 AM
74

Re: Dido Harding will face MPs on Wednesday 3 February

The 22 billion is the budget which includes all the testing, scheduling, followup etc which is the majority if the costs.

Test and trace gives a snapshot of where infections are and at what level, it is not designed to reduce the R rate.
 
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