Will Poland or Hungary be next to Leave?

What do you think?

I appreciate that this is just conjecture on my part but have been reading today about these two countries - Poland and Hungary, and how greatly at odds they both are with the EU over immigration and their judiciary, with the EU threatening to take severe action against both.

P O L A N D.

Poland is in trouble with the EU’s charter that all members have to sign and stand by, that they do not interfere with the EU judiciary decisions.
According to the read, the troubles stem from Poland’s attempt to lower the retirement age of 40 percent of Polish judges by introducing an abrupt change to the retirement age. The European court ruled that a decision to lower the retirement age was unlawful. The EU has threatened to withhold Poland’s voting rights, but because of a mutual defence pact with its equally naughty neighbour, Hungary, and although both France and Germany have been highly critical of the Polish government’s increasing controls over its courts, this action of taking away it’s voting rights is highly unlikely.

Poland is also in trouble with the EU over Immigration quota acceptance. The far-right Law and Justice party’s anti-immigrant rhetoric has given the EU a huge headache because of its own failure with its Immigrant quota of North African migrants due to the refusal of Poland and other hard-line former Communist member states.

H U N G A R Y

Hungary with its Prime Minister, Viktor Orban in power since 2010, along with its ally Poland, has been at odds with the EU for quite a few years over the EU’s policies that it says are eroding democratic checks and balances.

New President, Ursula von der Leyen, has stressed that respecting fundamental EU values would be at the heart of her policies. The EU Commission is working on making EU handouts conditional on respecting democratic rules. Hungary angrily says that the EU has enough safeguards already in place to safeguard the rule of law and the distribution of EU funding.

Hungary and Poland are both big beneficiaries of BILLIONS of Euros in development funds EVERY YEAR! Wow! Now I know why both of these countries don’t like what is happening.
Surely, once the UK leaves, both of their money trees will be reduced to a trickle?

I also read that of course, Hungary could refuse to approve the general budget unless it gets guarantees there would be no special conditions attached to the EU’s handouts.

Both Hungary and Poland’s ruling nationalist parties have tight control over their media, academics, courts and advocacy groups, spurring the EU to launch an Article 7 legal process against both eastern EU countries.
Hungary again are very anti-migrant over quotas on their country. It has told Germany, ‘’We will decide who enters our country,’’ and demanded that it should be the member states who have the final say over who enters their countries - not Brussels!

W H A T D O I T H I N K?

My thought is that this could lead to both countries losing their voting rights in the EU making them push for leave. I don’t think they will though, for two reasons.

They are two of the biggest beneficiaries of EU handouts for development.

All of the other EU member states would have to give unanimous support to them losing their voting rights.

I can’t see that happening though. With Hungary, Poland AND Czechoslovakia, it would more than likely be a case of ‘’You scratch my back, I’ll scratch yours’’ (Much like the Eurovision Song Contest!!).

What are your thoughts? Would you put a bet on either of these two countries to be next to leave? Who do you think will blink first? Poland, Hungary - or the EU with the Euro being in trouble? Getting rid of its two largest ''Hands out for money'' member states? Maybe their mindset may end up with these two out - Turkey in!! Unrealistic I know, but you never know!

Re: Will Poland or Hungary be next to Leave?

The Netherlands.

Re: Will Poland or Hungary be next to Leave?

Ssshhh! Youll wake-up Solasch!

Re: Will Poland or Hungary be next to Leave?

I think it is possible that a new dept will be created in the commission
for the leaders of the eastern bloc, possibly ostensibly to deal with
the liason between eu and eastern bloc? these posts of course will
be highly paid and carry large pensions etc?
Do you think l am paranoid?
Donkeyman!

Re: Will Poland or Hungary be next to Leave?

All friends & family in Portugal expect to follow suit (brexit), but they are not free to leave, they've been on the receiving end of mega bucks over the past 30 odd years ....

Who knows? I expect the eu to collapse, then no one will be remaining.

Re: Will Poland or Hungary be next to Leave?

I know its pie in the sky thinking but maybe those disillusioned but tied by the money member states would warm more towards the EU if they regained their old currencies. Just think, back to the lovely Drachma, Peseta, Lira, Franc, etc, I wonder if most countries genuinely miss their old currency?
I'm so pleased we didn't give in and kept our lovely pound.

Re: Will Poland or Hungary be next to Leave?

Too bloody true. Just because Merkel cocked up doesn't mean everyone else has to carry the can for her.

Re: Will Poland or Hungary be next to Leave?

The Euro was only introduce for the benefit of Germany The high value of the Deutchmark made their exports too expensive. Trying to put the currencies of other nations at the same level is doomed to failure eventually, as struggling countries can't devalue it as they could with their own money. I bet a lot of them are regretting the decision to join the Euro now, especially those with no exporting industries.

Re: Will Poland or Hungary be next to Leave?

The two points that SG made:
- Hungary (certainly) and possibly Poland refusing to take their quota of immigrants, and
- after Brexit, the very likely reduction of handouts to these two countries (and others),
are valid and very believable.

I'm sure about the likely reduction of handouts to poorer countries as the total income of the EU will be much less after we stop paying in. I can't imagine France accepting any reduction in its income or increase in its contributions, and very likely Germany as well.
I believe that the poorer countries are still EU members primarily because of what they receive and if that dries up what reason would they have for staying.
Other poorer countries, like Greece, are in hock to the EU so would find it very difficult to walk away, but others like Poland and Hungary could do so.

This all tends to confirm the supposition that after we have left, those remaining will crumble bit by bit and leave, eventually leaving France and Germany pretty much on their own. France will, as I said, refuse to make any cuts to its income so I can't imagine Germany agreeing to pay up for the benefit of France!

Yes, the EU will collapse. I'm sure of it.

Re: Will Poland or Hungary be next to Leave?

You all are sure that brexit will bring you into the seventh heaven, yet you natter about it like a bunch of old women (presumably, some of you are). Are you having second thoughts already?