Re: No Alignment with EU
The two sides can’t even agree when talks should begin. London wants a February kick-off, hoping Johnson’s refusal to extend the transition period beyond 31 December will concentrate minds. But Brussels plans a March start, making a very ambitious timetable even tighter.
The EU wants to land access to the UK fishing waters by July, and to initially discuss that and goods. But Downing Street is keen not to let the EU dictate the timing and content of the talks. If that determination to set the agenda sounds familiar, that’s because it is.
In 2017, David Davis, then Brexit secretary, predicted the sequencing of the divorce talks would be “the row of the summer”. It wasn’t; May caved in. Her ministers confidently predicted they would “divide and rule” as differences between the EU27 surfaced. They didn’t; the EU remained united. Member states left the talks to the European Commission, blunting the UK’s efforts to pick off national leaders.
However, the UK will face the same EU negotiator across the table in Michel Barnier, and Johnson cannot assume the 27 will start squabbling amongst themselves.
If the EU refuses to compromise, ministers hint, Johnson would be prepared to walk out of the EU talks. They believe this would play well among the Tories’ new working class voters in the north and midlands.
But the EU have seen the no-deal movie too. May got in a pickle after saying that “no deal was better than a bad deal” but then decided the opposite was true. Johnson threatened no deal but ultimately signed up to one – 95 per cent of which was May’s agreement.