No-deal Brexit impacts

I read through the Government's analysis from November 2018 on different Brexit scenarios recently. The impacts of a no-deal Brexit seem pretty significant and I'm surprised there isn't more discussion on the numbers.

Comparing a no-deal Brexit with staying in the EU, the estimated long-term impacts are:

- Positive long-term savings of around £22billion p.a. from no more EU budget contribution and some income from Customs fees; but
- Long-term costs of £116billion p.a. from reduced trade, lower GDP and employment and hence reduced tax revenues
-Net budget deficit compared to staying in the EU of around £95 billion p.a.

£95 billion is a really big figure. It means a lot of further cuts to the NHS, schools, police, defence and welfare.

What are your thoughts on this? I'd particularly like to hear from anyone who thinks a no-deal Brexit isn't too much of a problem.

Please have a look at the report yourselves at:
https://assets.publishing.service.go...alysis__1_.pdf

Re: No-deal Brexit impacts

Taken from the link...

In other words you can post as many figures and analyses as you like and they can only be speculation because no one knows for sure what the outcome will be when we leave the EU with or without an agreement.

We will just have to wait and see .

Re: No-deal Brexit impacts

If it doesn’t suit the Brexiteers view of booming free trade with
the world it will be declared to be one or more of the following:

Scaremongering
Produced by “experts”who are always proved wrong
We knew/are prepared to endure hardship for the sake of our sovereignty
We endured hardship in the War for the sake of our freedom
Fake news
It’s the EU punishing us
The EU is a failing project
It’s all our politicians fault

There are probably some I’ve missed but they will no doubt hark back to times past or be empty sound bytes

We are now in a bizarre situation whereby we have a captain saying if their deal is not accepted they’ll sink the ship and the passengers in first and third class are screaming sink the ship. There are however only lifeboats for the first class passengers

Re: No-deal Brexit impacts

You are in the right place for that. Old fogies website, alive & kickin at death's door, preparing to burn beacons on every hilltop, stocking up with corned beef, digging shelters, loving every minute.

Re: No-deal Brexit impacts

Thanks for the reply Meg, I appreciate you looking at the report. The point that disclaimer is making though is that while it is hard to make an absolute forecast of economic growth (as no-one knows what else in the world will hit or help our economy over the coming years), the report looks at the relative impacts of the economy under different scenarios. So it is quite valid to compare a future "no-deal Brexit" scenario with a future "staying in the EU" scenario.

Of course the analysis can't be exact, but it does quote the range of other independent studies and the uncertainty ranges in the modelling. In all cases the basic message of big economic damage from a no-deal Brexit comes through clearly.

Sadly, the option of "waiting and seeing" won't help. If we stay in the EU, we can get our existing rebates and opt-outs continuing. If we leave, we need all countries in the EU to agree new terms (including Spain, who may choose to use Gibraltar as a bargaining chip). If we leave there is no quick or easy way to rebuild what we would have lost.

Re: No-deal Brexit impacts

You missed an important one, marking a turn in the thinking of brexiteers. For a time they were sure of a positive endscenario: the EU needs us harder than we the EU, they will come running to trade with us.

Since the contours of a no deal brexit are becoming more firm, the latest mantra is: nobody can predict the outcome, nobody knows, it's speculation all around, and finally WE JUST HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE.

That is a lethargy that is killing the UK. Now is the time for positive action. Demand that the government revokes article 50 to save the future of the UK. As always in history it is the young who overcome the lameness of their parents.

Re: No-deal Brexit impacts

I wonder whether it might be a good idea to create a special section of this web site to accommodate Project Fear?

Avoiding a specific section would be far easier than scrolling past tedious posts by the usual suspects.

Re: No-deal Brexit impacts

As an alternative, a section for those piping up about the benefits of (a no deal) brexit. Reason: arguments against brexit are increasing, while the benefits diminish in numbers.

Re: No-deal Brexit impacts

Ye Gods! Why don't you morons give it a rest.

Re: No-deal Brexit impacts

As predicted that empty sound byte “project fear” gets rolled out again when the brexit fallacies are exposed

Yes that it, create a separate section to hide away what you have no robust response to.