Today in the HoC it Should be Interesting

Lots of scenarios are playing out today in the media and we will see later today how the votes will go for Boris' vote of no confidence.

If the "delay bill" goes through - Boris calls an election. If there is an election, Boris can form an alliance with Farage and clean up, deselecting the tory saboteurs such as Hammond, Grieve, Gauke and co - something that Comrade Corbyn knows only too well. The last thing Corbyn wants now is an election as he will lose up to 85 seats in the commons. There could also be a vote of no confidence in Corbyn, so, finally, he could be forced out of his own party.

However, here is the dilemma - Comrade Corbyn has been demanding (yes demanding) a General Election since he became leader and now, faced with imminent demise, Corbyn now finds himself in the embarrassing position where he now wants a general election like a hole in the head.

So what is he to do ?

Well, one way is to vote against the "delay bill" (yes you heard that right !) to delay Brexit again - this would give Boris a victory in a no confidence vote and prevent the election, however, on the flip side it would mean that an October 31st no-deal is even more likely than before.

If the government loses the vote today and Boris did call for a General Election then Corbyn could then vote against it (even if it would be super embarrassing for him) - the remainers need 2/3 of parliament to vote in favour of it, so what Boris could do is give a free vote to the Conservatives to allow the 140 odd Tory Brexiteers to vote against their own government and force the general election, forcing Corbyn into oblivion and a no-deal Brexit even more likely.

Rock, hard place..... springs to mind.

Re: Today in the HoC it Should be Interesting

Bread, that sounds very convincing.

What we are seeing is a virtual civil war in this country! This 'war' is clearly between the leavers and the remainers. I still believe that leavers outnumber remainers amongst the general population and, although the latest remainer ploy is to try to assure us that many of the leavers want us to leave with a deal (like May's BRINO deal), I believe that the majority still do not accept any deal that effectively keeps us under the control of the European Commission and the ECJ. Neither do they believe Project Fear.

Your explanation suggests that whatever happens over the next few weeks, the ultimate outcome will be a Brexit without compromise, even if that is further delayed.

Re: Today in the HoC it Should be Interesting

I'm beginning to wonder if Labour MPs are actually talking to each other I have listened to 4 so far give totally different facts about what labour wants. If they can't agree what hope is there for a cohesive idea to get us through this mess ?

Boris seems to be on the right track trying to stop the oppositions within his own party, unless he can do that he won't get much further than TM did.

I just wish the idiots yelling would stop so it was easier to hear interviews. We know they don't want to go, we get it, they lost, they need to quieten down and let them get us out. They look a bit silly according to people I chat to abroad who think it's really funny they think Tories and Boris are so far right as they come from countries where they know what real nazis look like.

Re: Today in the HoC it Should be Interesting

Morning Bread. Morning all.

Hate to be such a pessimist this morning, but yes, Boris is in a dilemma. First Parliament will be voting for No Deal to be taken off the table. Then they will be voting for Boris to go cap in hand back to Brussels to ask for a 3-month extension.
If the EU demand a longer extension, 1 year? two years? Boris would have to comply.

If Boris then calls a General Election, he will need 2/3rds of Parliament to vote in favour of it now that new rules governing General Elections is in place. I am sure he will be banking on Jeremy Corbyn to go for it, but this is not a safe bet now because A. Labour MPs are scared of the polls, and B. because the date of 14th October has been put forward, with talk of Boris then changing the date to after 31st October, but Parliament is now discussing a bill that would forbid him from changing the date, once announced.

With Boris stating that we will be leaving on the promised date and no way would he ask for an extension, plus the sacking of anyone who goes against his government, he is in a dreadful position as I see it.

We also have the position of Nigel and the Brexit Party stating that if Boris gets his General Election through for 14th October, he will not receive any cooperation from the Brexit Party because they are convinced that he is negotiation with Brussels in bringing back the original WA but only minus the backstop. They simply don't trust Boris not to fudge Brexit.

I'm sorry to say that Boris has his back to the wall today.
I truly hope his plan works and my pessimism is unfounded, but I have my doubts.

Many think that this fight has been fought only since the Referendum. It hasn't! It's been going on for over 30 years. Maggie Thatcher herself complained about the aim of the EU for ever closer union, 12 months later, she was out.

I despair for this country.

Re: Today in the HoC it Should be Interesting

I assume that, like me, you are watching the biased BBC News right now!

Two things. The flags outside Parliament are EU flags (mostly) and UKIP flags. Added to that there is a least one particularly loud-mouthed idiot who is attempting to dominate the TV programme, even though I can't hear exactly what he is saying. I'm sure the BBC have set up their interview platform in order to get a good view of all that!

Listening to what that Victoria Derbyshire woman is saying makes it perfectly clear on whose side she sits and, of course, she is backed by her BBC bosses.

If the remainer BBC are trying to convert viewers to their way of thinking, they have certainly not convinced me! I'm sure I'm not alone as most people must by now be completely aware of the political bias of the BBC.

Re: Today in the HoC it Should be Interesting

That's my understanding - but no delays. I think the bill (if it is a "demand" for, as opposed to a "seek" for) would require 3 readings and the Queens consent to be passed as law and I don't think there is enough time (plus the filibustering by the house of lords) before we leave (plus, Parliament is prorogued until 14th october after this week). If it is a "seek" to then Boris can just go and ask, then give it the finger (as May could have done with the Cooper bill)

If the delay bill goes through (also as a vote of no confidence) it causes more problems for labour and a no deal more likely.

If the bill gets rejected (I'm anticipating Corbyn wants to avoid a GE like a hole in the head) then we will see even more division on the labour benches as labour MPs vote against it. They get another chance in October to shaft the democratic decision by the people (although the rumours are that a GE will take place October 14th which makes sense as the students will be back at uni and unable to vote twice like they did in 2017)

That's how I see it ... but anything can happen and judging by past experience, it usually does.

Remember this is Dominic Cummings master plan - and I think Cummings has a few aces up his sleeve. At least I hope he does ...

Re: Today in the HoC it Should be Interesting

I'm sure the BBC and Sky news deliberately turned up the sound of the protesters during Boris' speech last night.

Re: Today in the HoC it Should be Interesting

If Corbyn wants to avoid a GE then he has to vote the delay bill down. That's how I see it.

Re: Today in the HoC it Should be Interesting

Re: Today in the HoC it Should be Interesting

Yes JBR, and its not only the Derbyshire woman, bit seems
the all the presenters have been primed to become more
aggressive and strident to the leave cause? Just check out
Jo Coburn today, she has definitely notched her aggressiveness
up a few notches and now is becoming totally biased!

Regards Donkeyman!