Re: Is Boris the One Blinking First?

In the article I read, the author didn't talk about any of his work per se, only the political leanings and attitudes of his colleagues.
In addition, no names were mentioned of course.

Re: Is Boris the One Blinking First?

An anonymous civil servant, said enough to make enemies.

No names, no pack drill I get that.

Re: Is Boris the One Blinking First?

Here we are, a few days away from the end of "tunnel talks" and both Barnier and von der Leyen are saying that the UK's most pressing requirements are not yet resolved.

"No breakthrough in any of the three major stumbling blocks of fishing, 'level playing field' guarantees or deal's enforcement"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics...barnier-warns/

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...-von-der-leyen

Does this mean that we will have a firm decision soon?

Re: Is Boris the One Blinking First?

No matter what happens, France will veto any deal if it doesn't include continuation of the CFP, Germany will veto if it does not include the UK obeying their stupid rules on the level playing field and Spain will veto any deal that puts Gibraltar in a more favourable position that Spain.

Either two things will happen.

1. We walk away
2. The EU and UK "stop the clock" and negotiations rumble on through 2021.

Tear up the WA and walk away is my favoured approach but until the USA elections are over, nothing will happen.

Re: Is Boris the One Blinking First?

I can't see negotiations running on, Boris & co. surely know that we've all had enough plus he can't run the risk to the party's future.

I wouldn't be too sure about the USA election link either.

Re: Is Boris the One Blinking First?

The link between brexit and the usa elections go hand in hand. Where Boris is going against the establishment here (Brussels) Trump is doing the same in the USA

If Trump isn't re-elected and Biden gets in, wave any trade deal with the USA goodbye and also wave goodbye to our defence alliance. The EU are sat eagerly waiting because they know as well if Trump gets back in there will be retaliation tariffs on Merkels cars which will strengthen the UK position enormously- a Biden win could force the government to cave in to Brussels and give huge support to the federalist, socialist remainers here. With Biden, Globalism takes a huge step forward

Re: Is Boris the One Blinking First?

Sorry but I don't believe that for one mad second; IMHO if anything it's yet another remainer construct.

First we've been told that trade talks aren't dependent and Liz Truss has been talking to both sides.

Second we trade loads with the USA without a deal now.

The Yanks have seen the damage a Chinese tit-for-tat caused and there's an impending EU version.
So they're unlikely to try again, even if the quantities aren't as big and with (potentially) new USA leadership.

Any removal of a USA/UK defence alliance would risk the USA losing multi-billions of dollars in armaments across a huge variety of types, because the UK has traditionally been a leader in that area prior to the USA's dominance.

Removing the alliance would almost certainly lead to the UK resuming its' once-prominent postion and not only would the USA lose the UK's purchases, but they would lose future purchases as the UK progresses new technology which would be sought globally.
Just as we once led the world with the tecnology resulting in the Harrier aircraft for example we now potentially lead the way with autonomous drone and other weapon technolgy; combined with our acknowledged excellence in mapping we could very soon become dominant in that area for just one example.

Not only that, but it comes (again potentially) when the USA is losing its' position in the world both in terms of allies and of power.
Biden can do nothing at all about the latter and very little about the former; it's easier to lose trust than it is to build it.


Here are a few interesting reads:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/202...-says-defence/

https://www.gq-magazine.co.uk/articl...ary-technology

So there are my personal thoughts - though I will quite happily accept that I could be just as wrong as anybody else with an opinion.

One thing is for sure; it won't be much longer before we find out whether there is any connection or not.

Re: Is Boris the One Blinking First?

Think again Zaphod, even under Obama we were told we would be at the back of the line and look how integrated the USA became with China. The same with the EU.

Re: Is Boris the One Blinking First?

Come now, Obama was purely a remainer media stunt (which backfired at that) and it's pure greed that has led to the USA, EU & UK reliance on China.
Or more correctly the greed of consumers.

Neither Trump nor Biden are responsible for any trade deal because either can have their plans denied. Their Congress has the say.

As for "the back of the line" - well that was proved wrong & Liz Truss has said the new version is wrong, but time will tell.

Most importantly though - we already trade happily with the USA without any trade deal.

Re: Is Boris the One Blinking First?

Just to add the following: The EU is recognized as the second largest economy globally after the USA.

That however was before the UK left; the EU lost 16% of it's GDP upon the UK leaving and 13% of it's population.

Should the UK join CPTPP ( and all the evidence to date suggests that this is likely - and likely quite soon too ) then the CPTPP would overtake the EU as being the second largest economy and what is more, this is predicted to soon overtake the USA to become #1.

Trump had a chance of being a member in the TPP days but withdrew, so he's certainly not a supporter - which is at odds with the UK stance.

Biden is also not keen; despite the "improve trade" stance he says he would need to see major changes before signing which, as I understand it, the CPTPP don't want because it's at odds with the provisions of the current agreement.
So still the USA would be at odds with the UK stance.

The CPTPP doesn't require the giving-up of any sovereignty; it does not demand access to territorial waters; and it does not require the UK to submit to any other judiciary.
It also does not require an annual payment of tens of billions of pounds for membership.

Now that Japan has agreed a UK deal and Canada declaring it will sign a UK deal by the year's end AND with the remaining CPTPP members ALL making positive noises regarding the UK joining, things look really promising for the UK.