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Dextrous63
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24-12-2020, 12:19 AM
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Per 100000

The problem with simplistic stats is that it often indicates what might be fallacies.

Take the per 100000 figures for example.

There will be a fair few areas in which nowhere near 100000 will have taken the test, so the headline figure will come from a proportion.

But even this leaves questions. A basic GCSE maths question will usually ask "what's wrong with the data collection method", with one of the regular answers having to include the words "bias sample". The point is that we have no idea why so many people feel the need to take the test. Obviously some will be showing symptoms...fair enough, especially if they need this evidence for their employers. But many (the vast majority) will not.

It seems to me that there is a reasonable chance that the sample is inherently bias, and that any fear/panic is overstated. It may well simply be the case that this is an example of Chinese whispers which is making things look far worse than they are.

Am not denying that a fair few have become ill and worse.

But one cannot help think it's not as bad as the media make out.
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24-12-2020, 01:16 AM
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Re: Per 100000

Originally Posted by Dextrous63 ->
The problem with simplistic stats is that it often indicates what might be fallacies.

Take the per 100000 figures for example.

There will be a fair few areas in which nowhere near 100000 will have taken the test, so the headline figure will come from a proportion.

But even this leaves questions. A basic GCSE maths question will usually ask "what's wrong with the data collection method", with one of the regular answers having to include the words "bias sample". The point is that we have no idea why so many people feel the need to take the test. Obviously some will be showing symptoms...fair enough, especially if they need this evidence for their employers. But many (the vast majority) will not.

It seems to me that there is a reasonable chance that the sample is inherently bias, and that any fear/panic is overstated. It may well simply be the case that this is an example of Chinese whispers which is making things look far worse than they are.

Am not denying that a fair few have become ill and worse.

But one cannot help think it's not as bad as the media make out.
You've not mentioned the subject of your diatribe but I'm guessing that it's COVID-19 .....

For information on how data on the pandemic is collected, collated and published, you could start here:

COVID-19 testing data: methodology note

https://www.gov.uk/government/public...thodology-note
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24-12-2020, 01:27 AM
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Re: Per 100000

Originally Posted by Omah ->
You've not mentioned the subject of your diatribe but I'm guessing that it's COVID-19 .....
Oh yeah Forgot.

"Diatribe" might be overstating my point though.
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24-12-2020, 01:51 AM
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Re: Per 100000

I'm no statistician but I do take an interest in the "daily rates" of the pandemic.

I very rarely look at the "per 100,000" figure since, by its very nature, its an average, and not an actual.

Two sources of infection data are readily available in the UK:

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

and

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...onsanddiseases

The latter, which produces "Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, UK" reports, is IMO, the more accurate in terms of overall numbers, and has consistently, and apparently accurately, judged the pandemic situation to be worse than government/media reports - its' estimates over the year clearly indicated that the UK was far from "out of the woods" and "on the road to disaster" .

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey, UK: 18 December 2020

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulat...11december2020
Sample Extract

The percentage of people testing positive for the coronavirus (COVID-19) in England has increased; during the most recent week (6 to 12 December 2020), we estimate 567,300 people (95% credible interval: 533,600 to 602,300) within the community population in England had the COVID-19, equating to around 1 in 95 people (95% credible interval: 1 in 100 to 1 in 90).

Over the most recent week, the percentage of people testing positive has increased sharply in London, with other increases in the East of England, the East Midlands, and the South East; the percentage of people testing positive in the North West and Yorkshire and The Humber has continued to decrease in the most recent week.

In the most recent week, the percentage of people testing positive has increased in most age groups, other than those in school Year 12 to 24 years old, and those aged 50 to 69 years; there are now early signs the percentage testing positive is levelling out among older teenagers and young adults.

The percentage of those testing positive has increased over recent weeks in Wales; during the most recent week (6 to 12 December 2020), we estimate that 33,400 people in Wales had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 23,800 to 44,300), equating to 1 in 90 people (95% credible interval: 1 in 130 to 1 in 70).

The percentage testing positive in Northern Ireland appears to no longer be decreasing; during the most recent week (6 to 12 December 2020), we estimate that 8,500 people in Northern Ireland had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 5,100 to 13,000), equating to 1 in 215 people (95% credible interval: 1 in 360 to 1 in 140).

The percentage testing positive in Scotland has increased; during the most recent week (6 to 12 December 2020), we estimate that 52,500 people in Scotland had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 41,600 to 64,600), equating to 1 in 100 people (95% credible interval: 1 in 125 to 1 in 80).
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24-12-2020, 03:17 AM
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Re: Per 100000

If there are less than 100k people in the population (which is what I think you meant) then yes they would have to scale up the actuals accordingly to give a comparable figure. Nothing technically wrong with that but does raise eyebrows. They do the same with the worldometer world covid per million figures in places where you have less than a million population.
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24-12-2020, 03:22 AM
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Re: Per 100000

Thanks Omah. Only had a quick read of a few of the documents. What I haven't found yet, and which may be a somewhat important point, is any form of estimate regarding the number of people who have had covid either asymptomatically, or with some symptoms from before it was a recognised problem. Am sure we all know a few people who look back and think that they might have had it over a year ago.

This is where having a reliable antibody test would prove invaluable, for obvious reasons. And yet this aspect appears to have gone mightily quiet.
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24-12-2020, 03:29 AM
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Re: Per 100000

Originally Posted by AnnieS ->
If there are less than 100k people in the population (which is what I think you meant) then yes they would have to scale up the actuals accordingly to give a comparable figure. Nothing technically wrong with that but does raise eyebrows. They do the same with the worldometer world covid per million figures in places where you have less than a million population.
The issue with scaling up is that you are extrapolating, which is often highly dodgy and can't be relied on.

Stats folk have been known to make (in retrospect) catastrophic and false claims.
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24-12-2020, 03:31 AM
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Re: Per 100000

They mothballed the antibody test when they have found some people only retain antibodies for a couple of months.
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24-12-2020, 03:33 AM
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Re: Per 100000

Originally Posted by Dextrous63 ->
The issue with scaling up is that you are extrapolating, which is often highly dodgy and can't be relied on.

Stats folk have been known to make (in retrospect) catastrophic and false claims.
It depends on how you interpret the data and if it's ensured that assumptions are clearly stated. The sort of graphs and charts we see in our papers are often highly misleading. But I guess that's what makes the story.
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24-12-2020, 03:36 AM
10

Re: Per 100000

Extrapolation is inferring from a sample though. Scaling up is just smoothing the data to make it comparable. Doesn't feel comfortable but how else can you compare?
 
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