Brexit could 'blow £100bn hole in economy'

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/br...024910355.html

A UK vote to leave the European Union could cost the UK economy £100bn and 950,000 jobs by 2020, according to research commissioned by the Confederation of British Industry.

The CBI said Brexit would deliver a "serious shock" to the economy regardless of any trade deals the country could negotiate with its former European partners.

"This analysis shows very clearly why leaving the European Union would be a real blow for living standards, jobs and growth," CBI director-general Carolyn Fairbairn said in a statement.

"The savings from reduced EU budget contributions and regulation are greatly outweighed by the negative impact on trade and investment. Even in the best case this would cause a serious shock to the UK economy."

The CBI, which mainly represents larger British businesses, commissioned accountants PwC to examine two different exit scenarios - one at the optimistic end of the range, and the other recognising the likelihood of trade deals being concluded.

Under both, it said British living standards, economic growth and employment would be significantly reduced compared with staying.

Economic output could be curtailed by as much as about 5% of GDP by 2020, or £100bn, it said, while even in a scenario where a free trade agreement with the EU was rapidly secured, GDP might still be reduced by 3%.



Andrew Sentance, senior economic adviser at PwC, said: "The three big impacts of leaving the EU we have been able to identify are increased uncertainty, a negative shock to trade and investment, and reduced labour supply through migration.

"While the potential to reduce the burden of regulation and lower fiscal contributions to the EU could be offsets, the net impact of the UK leaving the EU is still likely to be negative for GDP, employment and living standards, both in the short-term and the long-term."

The CBI, which has said it will promote the economic case for Britain to remain in the EU, has been criticised by anti-EU campaigners who say the business community is split on the issue.

Matthew Elliott, chief executive of Vote Leave, said: "Even in the CBI's skewed choice of scenarios for exit, they are forced to admit that employment and the economy will continue to grow after we vote Leave.

"The EU-funded CBI are desperate to recreate the same scare stories they spread when they urged Britain to scrap the pound and join the euro. They were wrong then and they are wrong now."

But Lucy Thomas, deputy director of the Stronger In campaign, said: "This report is yet another clear indicator of the dangerous gamble that leaving Europe would be for people's jobs, prices in the shops and Britain's economy."

Last week, the CBI published research showing that 80% of its members wanted to stay in the EU, while just 5% thought leaving the bloc would help them.

John Longworth, the director general of the British Chamber of Commerce, resigned this month after he went public with his anti-EU views, breaching the neutral position adopted by his organisation.

The UK's in-out referendum will take place on 23 June.

Re: Brexit could 'blow £100bn hole in economy'

Sounds good value, didn't the Bankers cost more than that?

Re: Brexit could 'blow £100bn hole in economy'

I guess both sides of the debate can bandy around figures and statistics to try to prove their point 'lies damn lies and statistics' as they say.

It is not going to change my mind against voting 'out'.

Re: Brexit could 'blow £100bn hole in economy'

Let's not forget that the CBI represents big business.
That big business wants unlimited immigration, and why?
This is were all of it's cheap labour comes from, that's why.
Plus that is a few more million people here to buy big business goods.

What the CBI say there is just the usual scaremongering, and I don't believe a word of it!

Re: Brexit could 'blow £100bn hole in economy'

Heard from a financial advisor this morning on this, in short = rubbish

Re: Brexit could 'blow £100bn hole in economy'

I imagine that for people our ages, who most likely are not dependent on their jobs to keep paying their mortgage etc, not so much reason to worry. It's those who are dependent on having work to pay their mortgages and keep their families who will do the worrying, in other words the average working person, not the lawyers, bankers and other professionals who are not so dependent on having a wage come in every month and who no doubt have money to fall back on. I know if I had to work, pay a mortgage and bring up a family, I would be worried.

Re: Brexit could 'blow £100bn hole in economy'

Will coming out affect you personally Loretta ?

Re: Brexit could 'blow £100bn hole in economy'

Yes Patsy.
Admin.
Please put this thread in the Trash Can !

Re: Brexit could 'blow £100bn hole in economy'

I wouldn't , I think that they will be a lot better off in many ways as will we all including our children and grandchildren.

Re: Brexit could 'blow £100bn hole in economy'

Whether we stay in or get out, the problem will remain that those in power, hidden away, still have 95% of the wealth and control of the country and the government. The basic plight of ordinary folk will still be one of slavery, inability to get ahead in the game, high taxes, poor health and short life.
The people need to take back control of the country, re-establish proper law and justice systems, kick out the "old school boy" crony networks and criminal collectives and return the country to its former glory. We need to re-establish farming and manufacturing and services and keep those things here in the UK. To do so we need to kick out the big supermarkets, refuse to buy produce from them and instead re-establish all the local trades again, inc the dairy farmers (and raw milk), meat farmers and butchers, vegetable farmers, artisan bakeries and so on.

We also need to kick out this ridiculous sugar tax nonsense and in its place pass a laws that actually restrict the percentage of sugars that may be put into specific categories of products. Cakes and such treats may have a higher percentage but fizzy drinks and sauces and things like chopped tomatoes must have much less. The same will go for salt.
That'll do for a start!