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09-03-2021, 06:59 PM
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COVID-19: Chris Whitty says modelling predicts new Covid 'surge'

https://www.itv.com/news/2021-03-09/...whitty-reveals

Chief Medical Officer Chris Whitty, speaking at the Science and Technology Committee, revealed modelling predicted a new "surge" in infections as restrictions are lifted.

There could still be a further 30,000 coronavirus deaths in the UK, models have suggested, despite the vaccination programme already having inoculated the vast majority the UK's extremely clinical vulnerable.

Modellers at the University of Warwick and Imperial College London were asked to assess how many people could die, based on assumptions that vaccines would prevent 70% of deaths after a first dose and 88% after a second dose.

Mr Whitty told MPs the modelling reflected the fact that it was a common virus and "even if you have a relatively small proportion of people still remaining vulnerable, that still equates to a very large number of people overall".

As such, Mr Whitty said he would "strongly advise" against any move to shorten the timetable for easing lockdown restrictions.
So, we could yet have a "Fourth Wave" .....
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09-03-2021, 07:01 PM
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Re: COVID-19: Chris Whitty says modelling predicts new Covid 'surge'

I haven't even had my jag yet!
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09-03-2021, 07:25 PM
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Re: COVID-19: Chris Whitty says modelling predicts new Covid 'surge'

Hi

Day two of return to school.

Groups of teenagers gathering outside the local shops, going in without masks, coming out without masks, no social distancing.

Covid cases are increasing here, but West Mercia Police and Crimestoppers are not taking complaints about this.
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09-03-2021, 07:37 PM
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Re: COVID-19: Chris Whitty says modelling predicts new Covid 'surge'

Originally Posted by Pixie Knuckles ->
I haven't even had my jag yet!
The threat may not materialise but the relaxation of lockdown last summer resulted first in a Second Wave when education was resumed and then a Third Wave when the Christmas "break" was permitted.

I hope that you get a jab before any fresh outbreaks .....
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09-03-2021, 07:49 PM
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Re: COVID-19: Chris Whitty says modelling predicts new Covid 'surge'

Originally Posted by Omah ->
The threat may not materialise but the relaxation of lockdown last summer resulted first in a Second Wave when education was resumed and then a Third Wave when the Christmas "break" was permitted.

I hope that you get a jab before any fresh outbreaks .....
Blimey, me too Omah! Our FM up here is mildly relaxing outdoor meetings, and will give further advice next week about shops etc opening up. It is a worry.....
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09-03-2021, 09:33 PM
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Re: COVID-19: Chris Whitty says modelling predicts new Covid 'surge'

We can't lockdown forever, sooner or later we have to come out of hiding, and when we do Covid will be waiting for us....
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09-03-2021, 09:36 PM
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Re: COVID-19: Chris Whitty says modelling predicts new Covid 'surge'

Originally Posted by OldGreyFox ->
We can't lockdown forever, sooner or later we have to come out of hiding, and when we do Covid will be waiting for us....
This is true, Foxy...we need to get the money in sooner or later. Its a weird balance, to be honest.
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10-03-2021, 10:55 AM
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Re: COVID-19: Chris Whitty says modelling predicts new Covid 'surge'

Originally Posted by Omah ->
https://www.itv.com/news/2021-03-09/...whitty-reveals



So, we could yet have a "Fourth Wave" .....


I for one, wouldn't be surprised, Omah.
As I said elsewhere, I don't think we're done with this yet.
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10-03-2021, 11:22 AM
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Re: COVID-19: Chris Whitty says modelling predicts new Covid 'surge'

Originally Posted by Mups ->
I for one, wouldn't be surprised, Omah.
As I said elsewhere, I don't think we're done with this yet.
Morning Mups.....

They produce 'models' on a computer Mups, like they do with the weather forecasts, they feed all this info about what's gone off so far into the computer and it predicts the most likely outcome....A bit like reading tea leaves, or throwing a bunch of misshaped stones on the ground and reading those (Rune stones)...Only a thousand times more accurate. That's why we have been able to control the virus much better than in the past.... hold on a minute...
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10-03-2021, 11:26 AM
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Re: COVID-19: Chris Whitty says modelling predicts new Covid 'surge'

If BoJo slaps another lockdown on the country, he is in real danger of being knee-capped.
 
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