15-04-2021, 10:22 AM
11
Re: COVID-19: Johnson says lockdown, not vaccine, is reason for drop in cases and deaths
Originally Posted by oldgreyfox
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quite true pixie. However, all of us on this forum have had at least fifty years experience with dealing with colds and flu, and we really know deep down how to avoid such things, despite what all the experts are telling us....
15-04-2021, 10:24 AM
12
Re: COVID-19: Johnson says lockdown, not vaccine, is reason for drop in cases and deaths
Originally Posted by Pixie Knuckles
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I have never been one for pubs or parties anyway, and even going to the shops when lockdown is lifted, makes me a bit jittery now. People don't quite realise that the old normal will not be happening for a long time yet.
According to ONS, as of April 9th:
In Wales, the percentage of people testing positive decreased in the two weeks up to 3 April 2021; we estimate that 3,800 people in Wales had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 1,900 to 6,500), equating to around 1 in 800 people.
In Northern Ireland, the percentage of people testing positive appeared level in recent weeks, but there was high uncertainty; we estimate that 6,100 people in Northern Ireland had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 3,200 to 9,900), equating to around 1 in 300 people.
In Scotland, the percentage of people testing positive continued to decrease in the week ending 3 April 2021; we estimate that 13,000 people in Scotland had COVID-19 (95% credible interval: 8,200 to 19,000) equating to around 1 in 410 people.
The risk amongst young, unmasked, unvaccinated, drinkers mingling between tables, even if in the open air, remains, as yet, unclear .....
15-04-2021, 10:59 AM
13
Re: COVID-19: Johnson says lockdown, not vaccine, is reason for drop in cases and deaths
Originally Posted by Omah
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At one time, 1 in 50 people in hard-hit areas were infected, meaning that you couldn't go, say, grocery shopping without unknowingly encountering a "case" ..... According to ONS, as of April 9th:
So, relatively speaking, the chances of infection at the supermarket, where people are still masked and distanced, are now relatively low ......
The risk amongst young, unmasked, unvaccinated, drinkers mingling between tables, even if in the open air, remains, as yet, unclear .....
15-04-2021, 11:08 AM
14
Re: COVID-19: Johnson says lockdown, not vaccine, is reason for drop in cases and deaths
Originally Posted by OldGreyFox
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I don't think that would apply to Pixie and me Omah, cases round here were few and far between, even at the height of the pandemic. I agree about crowded indoor spaces though, but all the furor about crowded beaches and protesters in London didn't throw up any massive infection figures...
The "crowded beaches and protesters in London" may not have thrown up any massive infection figures but the morons left truckloads of their rubbish and body waste behind .....
15-04-2021, 11:12 AM
15
Re: COVID-19: Johnson says lockdown, not vaccine, is reason for drop in cases and deaths
Originally Posted by Omah
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Obviously you're not in a"hard-hit" area ..... The "crowded beaches and protesters in London" may not have thrown up any massive infection figures but the morons left truckloads of their rubbish and body waste behind .....
15-04-2021, 11:41 AM
17
Re: COVID-19: Johnson says lockdown, not vaccine, is reason for drop in cases and deaths
Originally Posted by Omah
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https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-...hnson-12274266I would like to see BJ's scientific evidence for that .....
Judging by the photos in this thread it will be easy to prove it all over again, lets just wait a few weeks and see if the number of covid cases start to rise again.
Here's the current figures, lets compare them with the figures in the middle of May.
UK
Cases 4,378,305 Change: 2,491
Deaths 127,161 Change: 38
Critical 370
Cases per Million 64,230
15-04-2021, 11:48 AM
18
Re: COVID-19: Johnson says lockdown, not vaccine, is reason for drop in cases and deaths
Originally Posted by Bruce
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There is plenty of evidence for that all over the world. Lockdowns have been proved to work. The graphs show it.
i.e. he made a direct, negative and scientifically (as yet) unproven comparison.
15-04-2021, 12:34 PM
19
Re: COVID-19: Johnson says lockdown, not vaccine, is reason for drop in cases and deaths
Originally Posted by Omah
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That is not the point - BJ said ""The numbers are down - of infections and hospitalisations and deaths. But it is very, very important for everybody to understand that the reduction in these numbers - in hospitalisations and in deaths and infections - has not been achieved by the vaccination programme."i.e. he made a direct, negative and scientifically (as yet) unproven comparison.
Much as I hate to agree with the Clown Prince the comparison was valid and the data supports this.
Look at the daily cases graph for the UK from 8th January when the highest point was reached the drop in cases has been initially rapid, typical of a lockdown, then the rate of descent has gradually tapered off again in line with other lockdown graphs. If the vaccination program had made a difference you would expect the graph to decrease rapidly in line with the increasing tempo of vaccination but instead it is steady and flattening.
If you were brave you could attribute that tiny drop just near the end of the graph to the vaccination program but otherwise the data supports what Boris says.
I have heard experts say that there is a long way to go before the global vaccination program starts to have an effect on daily case numbers.
15-04-2021, 12:47 PM
20
Re: COVID-19: Johnson says lockdown, not vaccine, is reason for drop in cases and deaths
There are reports being picked up in the media of an underestimation of Covid cases in Scotland. By as much as 50% underestimated. I'm erring on the side of cautionI just don't trust anything anymore
No wonder people have mental health issues, honestly!
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