Re: And The Next Bail-Out Looms

First that was a column of OPINIONS.

However I don't pretend to know much about the Italian economy except to say that since the end of the Renaissance it has always ben precarious.

I have never said the EU was perfect and as any good institution it benefits from improvement. But I can say that the French economy is relatively stable but improving and is due for reform after the next election in 2017.
However it does have that guarantee of a market and for support if needed.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_France

Its manufacturing sector is far larger than in the UK and is more modern with far better productivity.

I defy any country to see its GDP grow by much when China's economy is retracting.

What is so disappointing is that the economy of the UK is quite strong now but mainly through financial services. But it risks losing all that.
If it does how will the UK exist on trading just 20% of its GDP even IF and WHEN it makes any trade deals? (which can take years and since the UK needs them more than other countries, is liable to give away far too much).

Re: And The Next Bail-Out Looms

I would and have been among the first to say that the way France does business is archaic. The problems are often due to the syndicats (unions) which have a certain long standing ingrained attitude to entreprise and employment. Macon tried to change that during the last five years and has made some headway in restructuring the tax on self employed and other issues.
He is now almost certain to be running for President next year and many of the other candidates are also wanting change.

But France's economy (which has been growing recently) is far more balanced than the UK's which absolutely relies on the financial service sector. If the UK is denied access to passporting she is in serious trouble. and access depends on membership of the single market. and THAT means open movement of labour.
and be under no illusion, as much as the politicians and press in the UK blather on about this deal or that grey arrangement, it is the EU which will decide what the UK gets.
and from what I read here, they are not inclined to be generous nor do they flinch at being called silly names. They don't have to be.

So I agree that France has some work to do to reinvigorate its economy but like all over the world, it will be difficult when China is also in retraction. So much of the world's trade goes through there that when China moves, the rest of the world moves in the same direction...including the UK.

Re: And The Next Bail-Out Looms

Looks to me like you are arguing over nothing; you are all up shit creek without a paddle.

Debt to GDP

USA 104%
China 43%
Germany 71%
UK 89%
France 96%
Italy 132%
Spain 99%
Australia 36%
Russia 17%

The average Euro area debt/GDP is 90% so if you think Britain is better off than the rest of Europe you need your bumps felt.

Re: And The Next Bail-Out Looms

Italian PM Matteo Renzi to resign in wake of referendum defeat
http://news.sky.com/story/italian-pm...efeat-10683879




Well , Italy has voted 'NO' and so I guess they will be rolling a few dice in the near future and deciding which way they go


Italy is poised to become next country to reject the establishment

http://dailym.ai/2gDZQhZ

Upcoming vote is on prime minister Matteo Renzi's proposed reforms
Early polls suggest he is losing the vote by 11% in some areas of Italy
Lack of support is being seen as a failure to reach out to the poor
Rejection would follow Brexit and Trump in shunning political status quo
Italy is poised to become the next country to reject the establishment as exit polls suggest a referendum protest vote is poised to beat the government.
Early indications point to the vote on prime minister Matteo Renzi's reforms being thrown out.
A shock poll by Demos in the week predicted an 11 percentage point margin in the south of the country, according to a Demos poll.
The vote could prompt an exit from the European Union and rejection would follow results in the Brexit referendum and the U.S. presidency race in citizens turning their back on the political status quo.


Italy referendum: PM Matteo Renzi resigns after clear referendum defeat http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-38204189

The No campaign in Italy has been spearheaded by the anti-establishment Five Star Movement, led by Beppe Grillo.
It wants a referendum on whether Italy should keep the euro.
The projections, if they are right, will give a boost to populist parties, including the Five Star Movement and the anti-immigrant Northern League.
The referendum comes in the wake of the Brexit vote in the UK in June, and coincides with the rise of the anti-immigrant Front National in France and populist parties elsewhere. It also comes less than a month after the election of Donald Trump in the United States.
Some 50 million Italians have the right to vote in the referendum - many voters are fed up with years of economic stagnation




Polls suggest a strong lead in favour of “No”. Investors are worried that potential uncertainty following Renzi’s defeat could damage the integrity of the euro area, bringing back not-so-distant dark memories of the 2011 sovereign debt crisis.

Crucially, investors have become increasingly worried about Italy’s weak banking sector, which is swamped by non-performing loans. These are loans that have not made scheduled payments for at least 90 days and are difficult, if not impossible, to collect.

In January 2016, Renzi reached an agreement with the European Commission on how to address Italy’s €360 billion bad loans problem. The deal involves a guarantee scheme backed by the Italian state and the use of private investors to purchase those non-performing loans.

If Renzi’s government collapses, it would call into question this guarantee scheme, deterring investors from recapitalising troubled banks. And should the recapitalisation and bad debt restructuring of the especially afflicted Monte dei Paschi di Siena bank fail, it could lead to a broader loss of market confidence in Italy’s banking system. This could trigger a series of bank failures.

Referendum fails: Italy leaves the euro?

If Renzi steps down, the decision to call a snap election or appoint a caretaker technocratic government rests with the President of the Republic, Sergio Mattarella. There is little political appetite for yet another government that does not reflect electoral preference. Since Silvio Berlusconi resigned in 2011, Italy has experienced three “unelected” governments.

And so demands for fresh elections are on the rise. Renzi’s defeat would provide political leverage to the populist, anti-establishment and eurosceptic Five Star Movement, which has become one of Italy’s most popular parties since it was founded in 2009.

The Five Star Movement recently launched a campaign to hold a referendum on the euro. There could not be an immediate break from the single currency, however, as Italian law does not allow referendums to repeal international treaties. Further, as demonstrated by the Brexit vote, the legal hurdles implied in a divorce from EU treaties would make the process of leaving the single currency a lengthy and complex exercise.

Re: And The Next Bail-Out Looms

The No vote puts serious pressure on Italy's banks which could lead to a major finance problem across the EU. There will be a strong possibility now that they will abandon the Euro imo.

The house of EU cards begins to tumble.

Re: And The Next Bail-Out Looms

Hi

The most sensible option for the Italians, if they do not wish to follow the extreme austerity doled out to Greece, is to leave the Euro and devalue the Lira.

We have effectively devalued the £ since the Referendum, much to our advantage.

Re: And The Next Bail-Out Looms

Uncertain times ahead, I think any serious suggestion they would return to the Lira would result in a run on the banks, people would be stuffing their euros under their matrasses for a year or two, God knows where that would end I'm just relieved not to have money in Italien banks.

Re: And The Next Bail-Out Looms

I think some Italians have lost all they have already as I said in another thread...

http://www.over50sforum.com/showthre...46#post1047446

...so it looks like the Italians may have plenty to grumble about ...

Re: And The Next Bail-Out Looms

im not convinced when they said 'lets sleep on it, will be better in the morning ' they quite grasped the situation

Re: And The Next Bail-Out Looms

The Italians do indeed have a lot to to grumble about...they have had thousands of refugees turning up on their shores unannounced for one. That must be pretty unnerving for a country with financial problems...as it is in Greece.
Imagine tens of thousands of people coming ashore in some small Devon seaside town...

But I don't get the feeling that this was a major issue in the elections...one was the actual question about the structuring of the govt but the other was the economy.
Now I don't know much of anything abut the Italian economy and why it is continuously sluggish...if anyone could tell me I would like to know. But is os one of the biggest in the EU and won't fail...

because the EU will offer a bailout, the Italians won't bite the hand that feeds them, they will wait for the next general election in 2018 and make a decision based in what happens in the next two years.

Of all the countries that would have gone further to the right it was Austria.
It didn't.
I don't think Italy will either. They need the trade and the security since it is not far from the Baltic states and has no real defence against any Russian aggression.

Such a delightfully bonkers country but so beautiful.