04-01-2019, 09:38 PM
11
Re: No-deal Brexit impacts
Originally Posted by Tonyposts
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Thanks for the reply Meg, I appreciate you looking at the report. The point that disclaimer is making though is that while it is hard to make an absolute forecast of economic growth (as no-one knows what else in the world will hit or help our economy over the coming years), the report looks at the relative impacts of the economy under different scenarios. So it is quite valid to compare a future "no-deal Brexit" scenario with a future "staying in the EU" scenario.Of course the analysis can't be exact, but it does quote the range of other independent studies and the uncertainty ranges in the modelling. In all cases the basic message of big economic damage from a no-deal Brexit comes through clearly.
Sadly, the option of "waiting and seeing" won't help. If we stay in the EU, we can get our existing rebates and opt-outs continuing. If we leave, we need all countries in the EU to agree new terms (including Spain, who may choose to use Gibraltar as a bargaining chip). If we leave there is no quick or easy way to rebuild what we would have lost.
On a more filosofical note, for the sake of argument. Let's assume everyone on this forum reads the report and is frightened sh*tless. Everyone here wants to stop brexit.
What do you propose we do as a constructive contribution to the nation's future?
04-01-2019, 09:46 PM
12
Re: No-deal Brexit impacts
Originally Posted by Solasch
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On a more filosofical note, for the sake of argument. Let's assume everyone on this forum reads the report and is frightened sh*tless. Everyone here wants to stop brexit.What do you propose we do as a constructive contribution to the nation's future?
No account was made, in the opening post, for increasing trade with the rest of the world and the positive impact that would have on our GDP
04-01-2019, 10:22 PM
13
Re: No-deal Brexit impacts
Originally Posted by JBR
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I wonder whether it might be a good idea to create a special section of this web site to accommodate Project Fear?Avoiding a specific section would be far easier than scrolling past tedious posts by the usual suspects.
I'm deliberately trying to look at independent forecasts rather than any sponsored by politicians or newspapers. The government report was provided by economists in the Civil Service whose professional reputations rely on using evidence-based analysis and not being influenced by political spin. I've looked at reports from other organisations as well (e.g. Oxford Economics) which give a similar picture.
I really don't understand what the "Project Fear" tag is meant to signify - is it implying that all these independent organisations are part of some secret conspiracy, or what?
04-01-2019, 10:29 PM
14
Re: No-deal Brexit impacts
Originally Posted by Moscow
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I propose we continue as we are.No account was made, in the opening post, for increasing trade with the rest of the world and the positive impact that would have on our GDP
04-01-2019, 11:04 PM
18
Re: No-deal Brexit impacts
And meanwhile the Dutch have a rethink https://www.express.co.uk/news/world...ean-Sea-latest04-01-2019, 11:18 PM
19
Re: No-deal Brexit impacts
Originally Posted by Ray Cathode
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And meanwhile the Dutch have a rethink https://www.express.co.uk/news/world...ean-Sea-latest
Some have suggested that the EU will fall apart within ten years. Could be even sooner.
04-01-2019, 11:51 PM
20
Re: No-deal Brexit impacts
Originally Posted by Ray Cathode
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And meanwhile the Dutch have a rethink https://www.express.co.uk/news/world...ean-Sea-latest
Now the dutch vessel has to return to its dutch port of origin. It still has the refugees aboard, so they come to the netherlands. Which than is the country of entry, so the netherlands have to give shelter to refugees that were on their way to italy. I don't mind to give them that shelter. The government is apparently worried about precedents, and money. That is an administrative matter for brussels.
If a british vessel picks up refugees in the english channel, they bring them to the british port. Based on a bilateral agreement the UK sends them to france, and france sends them on to the country where they entered the EU. France can do that since they are in schengen, whereas britain opted out.
After brexit refugees picked up by british vessels cannot be send to france. The agreement between two EU countries (france and UK) is void. Refugees brought to france by the UK would enter the EU in france, and schengen says that france has to give shelter. France can no longer send them on.
So refugees picked up in the channel by british vessels will remain in the UK. Do you have facilities to house, feed and tend them?
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