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Banchory
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10-02-2019, 09:50 AM
91

Re: Reasons in favour of brexit

Originally Posted by Bread ->
But to get to -8% we need a civil war.

Just shows how ridiculous the CBI and the IMF are.
Where do you get the notion that we need to have a civil war to have a drop in GDP of 8%

Is this just your opinion or is there any analysis behind your view

This is the only view I could find that differed from the general consensus of an 8% or so drop

https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=i&so...49876341702489

Then again there is this.

https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=i&so...49876341702489
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10-02-2019, 10:02 AM
92

Re: Reasons in favour of brexit

Originally Posted by Banchory ->
Where do you get the notion that we need to have a civil war to have a drop in GDP of 8%

Is this just your opinion or is there any analysis behind your view

The financial crisis in 2008 caused GDP to fall by 2.4%. Your talking about nearly 3 times that for leaving the EU with no deal. Only something like civil war could do that much damage to the UK economy.

If ... and I mean "if" the average tarrif of 4% was applied to all uk imports it would cost the economy around 5 billion. That's less than half the 13 billion we pay the EU each year for free trade.

The 8% doesn't add up . It's just stupid scaremongering from the EU funded CBI
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10-02-2019, 10:09 AM
93

Re: Reasons in favour of brexit

Originally Posted by Moscow ->
And so what?

It worked for them.......!

The 'black economy' was basically ordinary Greek folk making ends meet.
It did work until they adopted the Euro and the reduction in disposable income Impacted the already fragile economy and with little tax being collected the Greek Government chose borrowing rather than tax prudence

They certainly would have been better off keeping The Drachma
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10-02-2019, 10:12 AM
94

Re: Reasons in favour of brexit

Originally Posted by Banchory ->
It did work until they adopted the Euro and the reduction in disposable income Impacted the already fragile economy and with little tax being collected the Greek Government chose borrowing rather than tax prudence

They certainly would have been better off keeping The Drachma

As part of Greece's ascension into the EU they should have been forced to privatise their (corrupt) public sector. This was a catastrophe for both sides and now there is no way ouit of the crippling debt for Greece.
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10-02-2019, 10:33 AM
95

Re: Reasons in favour of brexit

Originally Posted by Bread ->
As part of Greece's ascension into the EU they should have been forced to privatise their (corrupt) public sector. This was a catastrophe for both sides and now there is no way ouit of the crippling debt for Greece.
That may have worked but that type of intervention is probably not within the gift of the EU

They could have made certain conditions of joining that would have achieved the same. However Greece were less than honest in the data they provided to satisfy the financial conditions for joining that were extant so there’s no guarantee that would have worked

Additionally there would still be the issue of taxation or lack of it to run a country without excessive borrowing
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10-02-2019, 10:41 AM
96

Re: Reasons in favour of brexit

Originally Posted by Banchory ->
That may have worked but that type of intervention is probably not within the gift of the EU

They could have made certain conditions of joining that would have achieved the same. However Greece were less than honest in the data they provided to satisfy the financial conditions for joining that were extant so there’s no guarantee that would have worked

Additionally there would still be the issue of taxation or lack of it to run a country without excessive borrowing
The EU could have forced Greece to privatise- they did it with the railways under EU directive 91/440.

I agree Greece were lying about their GDP figures - Spain does the same. It's all a bit of a mess the EU.
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10-02-2019, 11:33 AM
97

Re: Reasons in favour of brexit

Originally Posted by Bread ->
The financial crisis in 2008 caused GDP to fall by 2.4%. Your talking about nearly 3 times that for leaving the EU with no deal. Only something like civil war could do that much damage to the UK economy.

If ... and I mean "if" the average tarrif of 4% was applied to all uk imports it would cost the economy around 5 billion. That's less than half the 13 billion we pay the EU each year for free trade.

The 8% doesn't add up . It's just stupid scaremongering from the EU funded CBI
Tariffs are not the only factor in the equation. The automotive industry for instance works on a margin of about 5%. Its manufacturing process has evolved to include multiple crossings between the UK and mainland Europe and a just in time process. The accumulated import tariffs, delays to process and tariffs on export to the EU will seriously challenge the viability of that industry and would affect all the UK supporting busy

We also don’t know how the pound will be affected, and drop will give a short term boost to exports but over the long term as we have little natural resources left we need to import them in order to manufacture but cost will rise.

This is just one example. The previous recession was a level playing field as the impact was fairly global. Leaving the EU with no deal is not a comparable scenario as is was a borrowing/ banking crisis
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10-02-2019, 11:38 AM
98

Re: Reasons in favour of brexit

Originally Posted by AnnieS ->
"I believe" makes me think of an Elvis song. Civil war requires arms on both sides. That's not going to happen. It's a prediction as dramatic as the King being back in Vegas in April
Ha ha ha....Yes Annie, first recorded by Frankie Laine one of my all time favourites.....

By the way.....I have two tickets for the Elvis concert in Las Vegas, April if your interested....
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10-02-2019, 11:38 AM
99

Re: Reasons in favour of brexit

Originally Posted by Banchory ->
Tariffs are not the only factor in the equation. The automotive industry for instance works on a margin of about 5%. Its manufacturing process has evolved to include multiple crossings between the UK and mainland Europe and a just in time process. The accumulated import tariffs, delays to process and tariffs on export to the EU will seriously challenge the viability of that industry and would affect all the UK supporting busy

We also don’t know how the pound will be affected, and drop will give a short term boost to exports but over the long term as we have little natural resources left we need to import them in order to manufacture but cost will rise.

This is just one example. The previous recession was a level playing field as the impact was fairly global. Leaving the EU with no deal is not a comparable scenario as is was a borrowing/ banking crisis

Tariffs apply to finished goods not individual car parts

In the last recession there was nothing global about it. Japan, China India Canada Australia etc weren't affected anywhere near Europe and the US
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10-02-2019, 02:31 PM
100

Re: Reasons in favour of brexit

Originally Posted by Bread ->
Tariffs apply to finished goods not individual car parts

In the last recession there was nothing global about it. Japan, China India Canada Australia etc weren't affected anywhere near Europe and the US

Hi

No, they apply to parts as well.

The Tariff Rate is 4.5%.

You can see the them on the WTO Site.
 
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