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Donkeyman
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Donkeyman is offline
Melton,United Kingdom
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02-05-2020, 09:24 PM
11

Re: New infection statistics!

Originally Posted by marciniak ->
I would have thought the number of deaths, give a more accurate calculation of the spread/ decline of this virus.

This guy is well respected, and has been right with his predictions
https://www.latimes.com/science/stor...nobel-laureate
I dont think the death rate gives an accurate indication marciniak
as it is dependant on there being an infection rate in the first
place and also on the variable mortality rate, and so is itself
variable?
Whereas the new infections rate is measured,and is therefore
a direct indication of direction?

Donkeyman! 🤔🤔
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OldGreyFox
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South Yorkshire
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02-05-2020, 09:33 PM
12

Re: New infection statistics!

Originally Posted by Donkeyman ->
I dont think the death rate gives an accurate indication marciniak
as it is dependant on there being an infection rate in the first
place and also on the variable mortality rate, and so is itself
variable?
Whereas the new infections rate is measured,and is therefore
a direct indication of direction?


Donkeyman! 🤔🤔
I beg to differ Donkeyman, as more tests are being done each day it is impossible to use use the figures as a comparison.
The amount of people infected each day could be going down, but by introducing more tests they would appear to be going up....
Lion Queen
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02-05-2020, 09:51 PM
13

Re: New infection statistics!

Originally Posted by AnnieS ->
They expect this to be around for a few years, possibly forever. But the mortality should fall as the virus becomes weaker over time. It will no longer be novel and the mutations are expected to weaken it.
I was talking to a friend today and I was saying I think this is going to be around forever. I'm hoping I'm wrong of course but it certainly isn't going to go away anytime soon.

Stay safe Annie
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Baz46
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02-05-2020, 09:52 PM
14

Re: New infection statistics!

Originally Posted by OldGreyFox ->
I beg to differ Donkeyman, as more tests are being done each day it is impossible to use use the figures as a comparison.
The amount of people infected each day could be going down, but by introducing more tests they would appear to be going up....
You shouldn't be begging OGF, you are old enough to steal!
As the old saying goes!
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AnnieS
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03-05-2020, 01:20 AM
15

Re: New infection statistics!

Originally Posted by Lion Queen ->
I was talking to a friend today and I was saying I think this is going to be around forever. I'm hoping I'm wrong of course but it certainly isn't going to go away anytime soon.

Stay safe Annie
You too LQ. Fingers crossed they will find an effective treatment soon.
swimfeeders
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03-05-2020, 04:49 AM
16

Re: New infection statistics!

Hi

We are not being told the truth.

It is all about news management.

Contact tracing is not done by Public Health England.

It is done by Local Councils, the EHO Staff, who are all trained in Contact Tracing and do it all the time with Food Poisoning.

With many restaurants etc closed down they have spare capacity which is not being used.

They are also trained in taking samples and swabs, again, not being used.

This is purely a Political Decision.

The Government are starting to employ contact tracers, who are untrained but who will be subject to Government rules about disclosure.

This is a nonsense.
Donkeyman
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03-05-2020, 09:59 AM
17

Re: New infection statistics!

Originally Posted by OldGreyFox ->
I beg to differ Donkeyman, as more tests are being done each day it is impossible to use use the figures as a comparison.
The amount of people infected each day could be going down, but by introducing more tests they would appear to be going up....
Yes, that is so OGF, but l didnt suggest that testing would give
an answer , but only indicate a direction of travel, i.e. insrease or
decreas of infections? Which surely what it is all about isnt it?
I think as you say, we will see a spike in new infections due to the
new regime of testing but after the spike the increase or decrease
of infections will become apparrent?
In fact lf you look at the daily graph you can clearly see that the
spike has allready appeared!!

Donkeyman! 🤔🤔
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OldGreyFox
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03-05-2020, 11:15 AM
18

Re: New infection statistics!

Originally Posted by Donkeyman ->
Yes, that is so OGF, but l didnt suggest that testing would give
an answer , but only indicate a direction of travel, i.e. insrease or
decreas of infections? Which surely what it is all about isnt it?
I think as you say, we will see a spike in new infections due to the
new regime of testing but after the spike the increase or decrease
of infections will become apparrent?
In fact lf you look at the daily graph you can clearly see that the
spike has allready appeared!!

Donkeyman! 🤔🤔
I think the spike was when they altered the goalposts and put all the care home deaths on to the figures. I also think that even 100,000 daily tests are a poor representation from over 68 million souls. Especially since only key workers are being tested. A much better method would have been to isolate each county and eradicate the virus one by one as the South Koreans and Australia have done.
Donkeyman
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Donkeyman is offline
Melton,United Kingdom
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03-05-2020, 12:06 PM
19

Re: New infection statistics!

Originally Posted by OldGreyFox ->
I think the spike was when they altered the goalposts and put all the care home deaths on to the figures. I also think that even 100,000 daily tests are a poor representation from over 68 million souls. Especially since only key workers are being tested. A much better method would have been to isolate each county and eradicate the virus one by one as the South Koreans and Australia have done.
The spike l am refering to OGF only took place at the beginning of
May and started immediately the test rate went up so you must be
talking about the big spike earlier on?
I agree that 100,000 dailyntests is a small sample, but after after a
a month or so it will be more meaningful!
BTW l dont think uk has followed the optimum path at all, but we
are stuck with it now and must just get on with it?
I am gradually getting the idea that after the world were too slow
to isolate China, we then over reacted in our actions regarding our
own countries!
Maybe we only needed to get the vulnerable people to self isolate
and left the healthier and younger citizens to carry on as normal?
That would definitely have limited all the economic upheaval??

Donkeyman! 🤔🤔🤔
marciniak
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wales uk
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03-05-2020, 03:11 PM
20

Re: New infection statistics!

I still would have thought using the world mortality rate as an average ie; deaths per number of infections per day/week or month, would prove the best indicator

The number of deaths should give an idea to the number of infections.

So less recorded deaths must mean less infections.

Lack of tests will only produce fewer infections giving a false higher rate in Mortality.

And more testing should show a higher number of infections, which would show a lower mortality rate.

With a mortality rate showing anything from 2% and 16% ( guess) could hopefully mean there are many more unreported/unknown cases of covid 19…. Hopefully.

With government hoping new infection fall below 1000 per day should mean (approx) 800 deaths per week at present rate
 
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