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Dodge
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27-06-2020, 05:55 PM
11

Re: Local Outbreak.

Weather is irrelevant in my opinion because the virus has infected people in countries that are a lot warmer than the UK and also a lot colder than the UK
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27-06-2020, 08:42 PM
12

Re: Local Outbreak.

Originally Posted by Dodge ->
Weather is irrelevant in my opinion because the virus has infected people in countries that are a lot warmer than the UK and also a lot colder than the UK
I don't believe it's as black and white as that Dodge.
It is unlikely that people who live in hot climates have ever suffered any flu virus whatever, and therefore have not developed any resistance. It is possible that if you have ever had any of flu type virus, your body will have acquired some kind of resistance, albeit limited. But it would explain why people in normally hot countries are more susceptible to Covid. Viruses do tend to disappear in the UK in the summer, perhaps due to the number of people who have been infected and not registered, but survived, thereby providing a dead end (pardon the pun) and preventing the virus from passing any further.

So to sum up:-
A combination of heat, vitamin D, resistance to infection, and spending more time outdoors and not in enclosed indoor still air situations could all be playing a part in the demise of the virus in summer.....
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27-06-2020, 10:57 PM
13

Re: Local Outbreak.

Originally Posted by Dodge ->
Weather is irrelevant in my opinion because the virus has infected people in countries that are a lot warmer than the UK and also a lot colder than the UK
The virus does indeed infect people in 'warmer' countries , however, sunlight has been found to reduce surface persistence of the virus so the shorter the time particles of virus survive on surfaces outside the body the less people they can infect. Therefore the weather is relevant.

The present study provides the first evidence that sunlight may rapidly inactivate SARS-CoV-2 on surfaces, suggesting that surface persistence, and subsequently exposure risk, may vary significantly between indoor and outdoor environments
https://academic.oup.com/jid/article...iaa274/5841129
Also as particles of virus are expelled from the body, as they travel through the air they dry out in hot dry air faster than in cold damp air . This can also affect transmission of the virus.

Without sunlight, the number of people infected by the virus could be much higher.
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28-06-2020, 09:39 AM
14

Re: Local Outbreak.

First local lockdown could be enforced in Leicester 'within days' after surge in cases

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-h...n-air-bridges/

The Health Secretary Matt Hancock is reportedly examining the legislation required for the shutdown after it was revealed that there have been 658 cases of the coronavirus in the Leicester area in the fortnight to June 16.

The Department of Health and Social Care today stopped short of saying a local lockdown was likely for Leicester, but acknowledged the city was an area of concern as it urged residents in the city to be vigilant against the virus, according to The Sunday Times.
Of course, it's an "isolated" outbreak .....

Leicester 'could be locked down' says home secretary

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-englan...shire-53206506

Speaking on the BBC's Andrew Marr Show, Ms Patel said it was "correct" that the government was considering the move, reported in The Sunday Times.

About 25% of Leicester's 2,494 confirmed Covid-19 cases were reported in the two weeks before 16 June.
Mayor Sir Peter Soulsby said there was "no immediate prospect" of a lockdown.

Speaking on BBC Breakfast before Ms Patel was interviewed, he said data from testing was still being analysed.

Asked about restrictions, he said: "I don't think that is an immediate prospect.

"After many weeks of asking, we now have that data and we are analysing it over this weekend, and hopefully early next week we will know whether we have a problem and if we have, where it is."
Who'll "win" .....
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30-06-2020, 01:39 AM
15

Re: Local Outbreak.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-englan...shire-53229371

Stricter lockdown measures have been announced in Leicester because of a rise in coronavirus cases in the city.

Health Secretary Matt Hancock said non-essential shops will shut on Tuesday, and schools will close for most pupils on Thursday. The loosening of restrictions for pubs and restaurants in England on Saturday will also not be taking place.

Mr Hancock said Leicester accounted for "10% of all positive cases in the country over the past week".

Mr Hancock said the number of positive coronavirus cases in Leicester was "three times higher than the next highest city", and the relaxation of shielding measures on 6 July - which will allow the most clinical-vulnerable to spend more time outside - will also not take place in Leicester.

Leicester City Council said the new "stricter lockdown restrictions" would be in place for "at least two weeks", and it was working to establish which other parts of Leicestershire would be affected.

The authority said in a statement: "The latest figures obtained by the city council show that 3,216 Covid-19 cases have been confirmed in Leicester since the start of the epidemic. Of these, 944 cases were reported in the last two weeks.

"These figures include the number of patients and staff testing as positive in hospitals... and positive cases identified in testing centres."
If that "surge of a third" were repeated nationwide there might be 100,000 new cases and over 10,000 deaths .....
reg
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30-06-2020, 05:15 AM
16

Re: Local Outbreak.

Cases of COVID19 have risen in Leicester resulting in delays of lifting lockdown and conditions re-instated.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-englan...shire-53229371
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30-06-2020, 05:26 PM
17

Re: Local Outbreak.

Why has Leicester had a spike of coronavirus?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53235709

The first major public sign that there was a growing problem with coronavirus in Leicester was Monday 8 June.

In the east of the city, Humberstone Academy, which runs an infant and junior school, closed its doors with the head teacher explaining it was linked to positive tests for coronavirus. They briefly re-opened the following day, before being closed again.

The schools have not reopened since. Over the next two weeks, over 900 confirmed cases were recorded - one in 16 of all the positive tests seen in the UK.

The east of the city appears to be the epicentre of this local outbreak. The area includes streets with tightly packed terraced housing, and has a high proportion of ethnic minority families where multi-generational living is more common.

Health officials on the ground in Leicester suggest there are other issues at play too. There seems to be signs of transmission in workplaces, suggesting social distancing guidelines are not been adhered to as well as they should, and also transient workers passing through.

Cases are being seen now in other parts of the city, which is what has prompted ministers and local officials to take action.

"Should action have been taken sooner?" is a key question - and one that is already being asked. Even at this early stage, it is clear to see the signs have been there for a few weeks at least.

Over the weekend the city mayor, Sir Peter Soulsby, was saying the authorities there had only received limited data from the government and national testing system.

This goes to the heart of what many fear is a weakness in the system in England - the way the national test and trace system connects up with local teams.

Complex cases involving schools, care homes and prisons for example, are automatically transferred down to local public health teams, involving councils and Public Health England.

But individuals are dealt with by the national team. They ask for information from them about their close contacts and ask them to isolate.

Comprehensive information about these cases is not passed down to councils. Essentially it means they cannot monitor all local cases to see what patterns are emerging.
The ethnic composition of the city may have been the root cause of the outbreak but the reaction of the government and its' so-called "track and trace" system, led by the notorious Dido Harding, has been slow, uncoordinated and and less than effective.
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01-07-2020, 09:38 AM
18

Re: Local Outbreak.

https://www.gazetteseries.co.uk/news...counties-next/

As Leicester goes back into lockdown - the 35 other cities and counties across England at risk of being put back into lockdown next have been revealed.

The areas with cases on the rise include:

Barking and Dagenham
Brent
Derbyshire
Doncaster
Ealing
Enfield
Gateshead
Gloucestershire
Hammersmith and Fulham
Haringey
Harrow
Havering
Hounslow
Isle of Wight
Kensington and Chelsea
Medway
Milton Keynes
Plymouth
Portsmouth
Redbridge
Redcar and Cleveland
Richmond upon Thames
Sandwell
Slough
Suffolk
Sunderland
Tower Hamlets
Wakefield
Walsall
Wandsworth
Westminster
Wigan
Wiltshire
Windsor and Maidenhead
York
 
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