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Meg
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08-03-2020, 04:23 PM
21

Re: I give up

Originally Posted by swimfeeders ->
Hi
We have a number of Experts on this site,
I listen and learn from them
Dogs, cats, electrics, gas, General DIY, Photography Cooking etc.
Life is so much better for the knowledge that they share.
Coronovirus is so very much different.
Loads of absolutely wrong and stupid posts made.
Yet people believe them.
How stupid is that?
Some not so good advice to ignore...


https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-51735367
marciniak
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08-03-2020, 05:34 PM
22

Re: I give up

This is an interesting read

http://theconversation.com/coronavir...o-panic-132941

1. We know what it is

The first cases of AIDS were described in June 1981 and it took more than two years to identify the virus (HIV) causing the disease. With COVID-19, the first cases of severe pneumonia were reported in China on December 31, 2019 and by January 7 the virus had already been identified. The genome was available on day 10. We already know that it is a new coronavirus from group 2B, of the same family as the SARS, which we have called SARSCoV2. The disease is called COVID-19. It is thought to be related to coronavirus of bats. Genetic analyses have confirmed that it has a recent natural origin (between the end of November and the beginning of December) and that, although viruses live by mutating, its mutation rate may not be very high.

2. We know how to detect the virus

Since January 13, a test to detect the virus has been available.

3. The situation is improving in China

The strong control and isolation measures imposed by China are paying off. For several weeks now, the number of cases diagnosed every day is decreasing. A very detailed epidemiological follow-up is being carried out in other countries; outbreaks are very specific to areas, which can allow them to be controlled more easily.

4. 80% of cases are mild

The disease causes no symptoms or is mild in 81% of cases. Of course, in the remaining 14%, it can cause severe pneumonia and in 5% it can become critical or even fatal. It is still unclear what the death rate may be. Be it could be lower than some estimates so far.

5. People heal

Much of the reported data relates to the increase in the number of confirmed cases and the number of deaths, but most infected people are cured. There are 13 times more cured cases than deaths, and that proportion is increasing.


Recuperados por día. Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by Johns Hopkins CSSE
6. Symptoms appear mild in children

Only 3% of cases occur in people under 20, and mortality under 40 is only 0.2%. Symptoms are so mild in children that it can go unnoticed.

7. The virus can be wiped clean

The virus can be effectively inactivated from surfaces with a solution of ethanol (62-71% alcohol), hydrogen peroxide (0.5% hydrogen peroxide) or sodium hypochlorite (0.1% bleach), in just one minute. Frequent handwashing with soap and water is the most effective way to avoid contagion.

8. Science is on it, globally

It is the age of international science cooperation. After just over a month, 164 articles could be accessed in PubMed on COVID19 or SARSCov2, as well as many others available in repositories of articles not yet reviewed. They are preliminary works on vaccines, treatments, epidemiology, genetics and phylogeny, diagnosis, clinical aspects, etc. These articles were elaborated by some 700 authors, distributed throughout the planet. It is cooperative science, shared and open. In 2003, with the SARS epidemic, it took more than a year to reach less than half that number of articles. In addition, most scientific journals have left their publications as open access on the subject of coronaviruses.

9. There are already vaccine prototypes

Our ability to design new vaccines is spectacular. There are already more than eight projects underway seeking a vaccine against the new coronavirus. There are groups that work on vaccination projects against similar viruses.

The vaccine group of the University of Queensland, in Australia, has announced that it is already working on a prototype using the technique called “molecular clamp”, a novel technology. This is just one example that could allow vaccine production in record time. Prototypes may soon be tested on humans.

10. Antiviral trials are underway

Vaccines are preventive. Right now, the treatment of people who are already sick is important. There are already more than 80 clinical trials analysing coronavirus treatments. These are antivirals that have been used for other infections, which are already approved and that we know are safe.

One of those that has already been tested in humans is remdesivir, a broad-spectrum antiviral still under study, which has been tested against Ebola and SARS/MERS.

Another candidate is chloroquine, an antimalarial that has also been seen to have potent antiviral activity. It is known that chloroquine blocks viral infection by increasing the pH of the endosome, which is needed for the fusion of the virus with the cell, thus inhibiting its entry. It has been demonstrated that this compound blocks the new coronavirus in vitro and it is already being used in patients with coronavirus pneumonia.

Other proposed trials are based on the use of oseltamivir (which is used against the influenza virus), interferon-1b (protein with antiviral function), antisera from people who recovered or monoclonal antibodies to neutralise the virus. New therapies have been proposed with inhibitory substances, such as baricitinibine, selected by artificial intelligence.

The 1918 flu pandemic caused more than 25 million deaths in less than 25 weeks. Could something similar happen now? Probably not; we have never been better prepared to fight a pandemic.
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08-03-2020, 05:50 PM
23

Re: I give up

That was a damn good read and rather reassuring.

Thanks marciniak.
Lion Queen
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08-03-2020, 06:06 PM
24

Re: I give up

I agree with morty thanks for posting Marc
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08-03-2020, 09:02 PM
25

Re: I give up

Interesting reading, Marciniak...
swimfeeders
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08-03-2020, 10:01 PM
26

Re: I give up

Originally Posted by Mags ->
Interesting reading, Marciniak...

Hi

It is.

The only issue I have with it is contact time.

The one minute is under Laboratory Conditions,

The Real World is not like that.

Unless your hands or other surfaces are perfectly clean, the one minute goes out of the door.

Think about it, the viruses are difficult to kill.]

If your hands or other surfaces are not perfectly clean the disinfecting properties of any agent are used up first on the other dirty bits.

This renders them less effective against Viruses and they need a much longer contact time.

If they are very dirty they are totally ineffective.

Wipes and Gels do kill 99% of all known germs.

It is the 1% which is the problem.
realspeed
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08-03-2020, 11:32 PM
27

Re: I give up

Done Baltic cruise from Southampton, one cruise worth doing we loved it.
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Mups
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08-03-2020, 11:34 PM
28

Re: I give up

Originally Posted by AnnieS ->
If you look at Bruce's daily stats LD I've noticed that the numbers infected are high and the numbers recovered are low and this is now the third month. So it can take a long time to get rid of the illness. This means that without controls the whole country could end up at a standstill for weeks rather than one region. I think they mentioned this recently as a worst case scenario here. 20% of the population out of action. Without adequate care the death rate is far higher, if carers go sick then it's a nightmare.

I don't think anyone is an expert on this illness as yet. There are experts on infection control and epidemiology giving reports on the news and radio. But they are just as baffled because we don't yet know enough.
There was one scientist yesterday saying that it is not indicated that the virus is mutating fast so that is a ray of hope. Common sense is all we have.

Yep, I agree with that Annie.

I wonder if we can get it more than once?
As I've said before, I do hope it isn't going to return every winter now, like Flu does.

Talking of Flu, has there been much about this winter?
The C.Virus has over shadowed people ill with seasonal Flu.
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08-03-2020, 11:54 PM
29

Re: I give up

Originally Posted by swimfeeders ->
Hi

It is.

The only issue I have with it is contact time.

The one minute is under Laboratory Conditions,

The Real World is not like that.

Unless your hands or other surfaces are perfectly clean, the one minute goes out of the door.

Think about it, the viruses are difficult to kill.]

If your hands or other surfaces are not perfectly clean the disinfecting properties of any agent are used up first on the other dirty bits.

This renders them less effective against Viruses and they need a much longer contact time.

If they are very dirty they are totally ineffective.

Wipes and Gels do kill 99% of all known germs.

It is the 1% which is the problem.
Swim you keep ignoring the dilution effect of H2O in the mix. Washing hands effectively with soap and water is the gold standard.
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09-03-2020, 12:00 AM
30

Re: I give up

Originally Posted by Mups ->
Yep, I agree with that Annie.

I wonder if we can get it more than once?
As I've said before, I do hope it isn't going to return every winter now, like Flu does.

Talking of Flu, has there been much about this winter?
The C.Virus has over shadowed people ill with seasonal Flu.
They say you cannot get it more than once. Flu returns every year because it mutates so fast. If this mutates then we will for sure be ready with a vaccine. But according to a report from one of the many "experts" this is mutating very slowly. This indicates it's not likely to keep returning if we can nip it in the bud.

Here are the latest flu stats :

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/u...s-2019-to-2020

Perhaps the new attenuated vaccines for the elderly are working. Flu is only in the news when they get the vaccine wrong. Of course it's also been a mild winter so that helps too.
 
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