Why Prorogation is So Important for Boris

Here is my take on the current situation....

The Hilary Benn bill forces the Prime Minister to bring back a Brexit Deal from Brussels for a meaningful vote on 19th October. If not, the PM must go to Brussels and ask for an extension to end January 2020. If an extension to end January 2020 cannot be granted by the PM then he must accept whatever extension that the EU give him.


So far, Mays Withdrawal Treaty has been voted on in the commons 3 times and been voted down repeatedly, on one occasion by the biggest majority in Parliamentary history and the last time it cost her, her job. Over the recent months, its clear that the EU will not change the Bill and only offered minor changes to the political declaration which is not legally binding (I refer to Geoffrey Cox Speech earlier this year when May brought back the political declaration for debate at the 2nd reading).

Under the current rules of Parliament, a bill cannot be presented to Parliament in the same Parliamentary session more than 3 times, unless the bill has been "significantly changed". As the WA will not be changed by the EU (they have repeatedly said so), this means that the bill cannot be brought back to Parliament for a debate and meaningful vote for the 4th time. In the current parliamentary session, this means Boris has only one option which is to ask for the extension in accordance with the Benn Bill as he cannot satisdy the requirement of bringing back Mays bill for the debate on the 19th.

Unless, of course there is a new Parliamentary session, in which case he can bring back Mays Withdrawal Act for the first vote in the new Parliamentary session.

However, there is one problem he has and that in order to end the current session and start a new one, he needs to prorogue Parliament and have a Queens Speech. Now we know what all the fuss was about with Gina Miller, the Supreme Court, the hysterical remainers and our ex-Prime Minister and chaotic remainer, John (hypocrite) Major. By having the Supreme Court (of EU fanatics) overrule the proroguing of Parliament by ruling that it was unlawful, it means that the existing parliamentary session has not ended and Mays withdrawal bill cannot be brought back on the 19th, forcing Boris to go for the extension by default (he can't get a new significantly changed bill from the EU).

So now, what Boris needs to do, is use the law that has been passed by the Supreme Court to prorogue parliament again for a minimum period and with a justifiable meaning. If he does this, there is nothing anyone can do about it. In the new Parliamentary session, he then needs to re-present Mays deal which will get voted down again (Conservative Whip, SNP, Greens, Liberals, principled Labour remainers) and then he is in a no-deal Brexit position again as he will have satisfied the requirements of the Benn Bill by bringing a "deal" back to Parliament by the 19th October.

So, expect another proroguing of Parliament in the next few days or so.....

That's how I see it now and why Boris is adamant he will not need to ask for an extension while not breaking the law.

I think he could be right ...


P.S. Here is the irony.

Boris has repeatedly chastised labour for their position of going to Brussels, getting a deal and then voting against it. If I'm right, the Tories will be doing just that

oh the irony !

Re: Why Prorogation is So Important for Boris

Hi Bread

I'm not sure what you suggest satisfies the requirements of the Benn Bill. As I read it, the Bill requires not just that a deal is presented to the House, but that it is also approved by resolution of the House.

Here's condition No 1 of the Bill:


"(1) The condition in this subsection is that a Minister of the Crown has laid before each House of Parliament a statement that the United Kingdom has concluded an agreement with the European Union under Article 50(2) of the Treaty on European Union and a copy of the agreement and—.

(a) the agreement has been approved by resolution of the House of Commons on a motion moved by a Minister of the Crown, and

(b) a motion for the House of Lords to take note of the agreement has been tabled in the House of Lords by a Minister of the Crown and—

(i) the House of Lords has debated the motion, or

(ii) the House of Lords has not concluded a debate on the motion before the end of the period of two Lords sitting days beginning with the first Lords sitting day after the day on which the House of Commons passes the resolution mentioned in paragraph (a).

Re: Why Prorogation is So Important for Boris

Bread, just one question please. As Theresa May's bill is everything that is repugnant to Leave voters.Why would Boris assume that the HOC would vote against it for a fourth time? What would happen if the opposition actually voted for it and won? They would then be where they wanted surely, not really having left the EU at all? Is there any risk of this happening?

Re: Why Prorogation is So Important for Boris

If the bill is voted down then I can't see anything in the benn bill that forces the PM to ask for the extension

I think Boris assumes it will be voted down because it's been voted down so many times before and "on principle" the remainers would do the same again because we would still leave the EU if it went through.

If it does go through then I guess we are out the EU and can chop away at everything that is awful about it - like what Michael Gove said, I mean, what can the EU do if we signed up our trade deals, for example ?

I doubt the numbers are there for the bill to go through and there was an awful amount of effort gone into stop prorogation of parliament when the benn bill that aimed to prevent a no deal Brexit had already passed royal ascent so quickly....

Re: Why Prorogation is So Important for Boris

As I highlighted in bold in the extract from the Benn Bill, the requirement is that any deal is AGREED.

So if it is voted down then the Benn Bill requirement is not satisfied and thus Boris is forced to ask for an extension.

Re: Why Prorogation is So Important for Boris

I may be splitting hairs here but I'm open to any correction ... I'm looking in the text and cannot find anything where the deal is NOT agreed, effectively voted down.

I know its a big ask, but look again and see if you can see what I mean ? It only mentions if the deal is AGREED and not what happens if the House DISAGREES (or votes down) the deal.

If Boris does not come back with a deal then he has to go to the EU and ask for the extension.

Thats how I'm seeing this.... I could be wrong and open to any suggestions though

I think that when Benn came up with this he assumed that Boris would go for a no deal Brexit by default. There could be no major changes to Mays bill because he knows the EU would not change it so went "all in" to stop the no-deal.

When the Benn Bill went through so quickly he didn't factor in that Boris could get round it by proroguing and representing the worst deal in history to get him back on track.

Major mistake by Benn if I'm right....

Re: Why Prorogation is So Important for Boris

You make no sense to me on this.

Here is the quote again:

"the agreement has been approved by resolution of the House of Commons"


Which part of that are you not interpreting as the House of Commons having to agree any deal?

Re: Why Prorogation is So Important for Boris

If the agreement is brought to the HoC but does not get approved.

Re: Why Prorogation is So Important for Boris

A lot has been made of the fact that taking No Deal off the table weakens the government’s hands in negotiation with the EU, and this true.
But there is another aspect that has been overlooked prior to some of the posts on this thread;
With No Deal still the default option on 31st October, any deal that BoJo presented to the house would’ve been passed. The Benn Bill stopped that happening and has kicked the can down the road till next time. Ready for the same shit to happen all over again. That was the hidden agenda of the Benn Bill.
Is there a loophole? Can it be exploited? Maybe, but get ready for another legal challenge.
But we’ve been here before; back in March it was Leftwing and Cooper, this time Benn. Was anyone really surprised? History just repeated itself in double quick time. So BoJo didn’t expect all this? It was obvious to me what would happen, and until there’s an election, it will keep happening.

Re: Why Prorogation is So Important for Boris

There is a flaw in the other assumptions. May brought in the HoC the withdrawal deal to be ratified two times. She couldn't bring it a third time without the deal being substantially changed.
To circumvent that, the third time she brought to the house the bill to turn the agreement into law.
There is nothing that obstructs boris from bringing another bill to the house to turn the present deal into law. For instance, by adding the information from yellowhammer to the bill to describe the effects of not ratifying the deal.

So, the whole argumentation why boris needs prorogation is based on quick sand, and cannot hold. Bye!