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Julie1962
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06-09-2019, 12:59 PM
11

Re: Pound Goes Up and other events

Originally Posted by Meg ->
After an initial dip due to the uncertainty of change the pound will soar once we get rid of the shackles of the EU ...
Completely agree Meg and I'd also ask do we really think the people buying and selling know more than anyone else personally I think they cause a lot of trouble while having no more idea of what's happening than anyone else, they predict and guess like anyone else.
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Solasch
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06-09-2019, 03:28 PM
12

Re: Pound Goes Up and other events

Originally Posted by Judd ->
The value of currency is controlled by speculators and it's in their interest to create situations where a currency can fluctuate. Buy a currency when its value is low and then sell it back at a higher price when it recovers.
Massive buying would drive up the price of the pound, so at present no one is buying.
You only buy if you are confident the price of the pound will soar. At present no one is buying, so not much confidence in the pound soaring.
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Solasch
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06-09-2019, 03:30 PM
13

Re: Pound Goes Up and other events

Originally Posted by Meg ->
After an initial dip due to the uncertainty of change the pound will soar once we get rid of the shackles of the EU ...
A strong pound and a high exchange rate will make it unattractive to trade with the UK, especially for the usa.
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Reality1
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07-09-2019, 02:17 PM
14

Re: Pound Goes Up and other events

Originally Posted by Meg ->
After an initial dip due to the uncertainty of change the pound will soar once we get rid of the shackles of the EU ...

Do you mean the dip in 2016 that continues and worsens every time no deal looks more likely?


Maybe you could explain why it will soar when we walk away from our nearest customers and suppliers? Potentially leading to a trade war.

Could you explain exactly what you define as shackles?
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Solasch
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07-09-2019, 03:32 PM
15

Re: Pound Goes Up and other events

Originally Posted by Meg ->
After an initial dip due to the uncertainty of change the pound will soar once we get rid of the shackles of the EU ...
Amercans take a differing view:

However, for investors a number of things are becoming clear. For US investors I would make two general points to start with.

The first is that in a world of expensive assets, the UK is perhaps the only major country that is entirely unloved by international investors. My experience is that international and American investors are curious about Brexit but are not ready to commit capital. As a result, many UK equities and real estate opportunities are in ‘value’ territory. An ‘agreed’ Brexit could be a catalyst for these, though a hard Brexit would deepen levels of uncertainty.

A second point is that with the dollar continuing its rise, and beginning to inflict financial pain on emerging countries, the risk reward for holders of dollars to start to diversify is rising. Amongst the other reserve currencies the euro and the pound are relatively cheap.
The pound is interesting because on a fair value basis it is cheap, and heavily speculated against (short positions are historically very high). In addition, we are now getting a sense of trading ranges – a hard Brexit would likely see the pound trade in the 1.15 to 1.18 range, whereas an ‘agreed’ Brexit would see the pound trade higher from 1.20.

Post the October 31st*deadline, American investors will also do well to look more closely at UK domestic equities, especially banks and the hard hit retail sector, as well as the real estate sector. Watch and wait for the moment.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/mikeosu.../#715c2e053cc1
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