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Donkeyman
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12-09-2019, 09:48 AM
11

Re: Yellowhammer released!

Originally Posted by Solasch ->
Any risk is calculated with the same formula:: risk equals impact multiplied by probability: Risk=Impact X Probability . Impact is the effect on the organization should a risk event occur. Probability is the likelihood the event could occur within a given timeframe.
The risk can be weighed against the cost by deviding the risk by the cost.
So even if an event is very unlikely to occur, and the effect is very large, the risk is can still be large. In the case of brexit the probability is high, almost 1. So in that case, if the risk is high, the effect is automatically high.
All three factors you pose in your equation Solly,ie, risk/impact
and probability are variables and so no reliable result can
come from doing the exercise??
Regards Donkeyman!
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swimfeeders
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12-09-2019, 09:58 AM
12

Re: Yellowhammer released!

Hi

There are literally hundreds of such worst case documents in Government.

It was what the Emergency Planning Staff do.

They range a accident in a Nuclear Power Station to a tanker drivers strike.

It would be incredibly stupid not to do them and have a plan of action.

It does not mean that any of them will happen.

Paranoia gone mad.
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Bread
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12-09-2019, 10:09 AM
13

Re: Yellowhammer released!

I was involved in the Millennium Big disaster that never happened in 1999. If I recall, planes would fall out of the sky at midnight when this was announced.

The amount of money that was wasted on Y2K is eye watering. The media made a lot out of it and so did consultants, that was about it.

Nothing happened and now here comes Yellowhammer and its faulty risk assessments

Here is another risk assessment technique that's used a lot but is absolutely pointless and totally inaccurate ...

Q. Rate products being delayed due to Brexit against the following criteria ..

High Risk
Medium Risk
Low Risk

In this case ...
1. All 3 scenarios require mitigation - all speculative answers
2. There is no ability to select "Accept Risk - do nothing"
3. If in doubt, just choose "medium" - resulting in wasting money or not doing sufficient mitigation, which results in increasing risk.

Risk assessments ... absolute joke !
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Donkeyman
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12-09-2019, 10:10 AM
14

Re: Yellowhammer released!

Originally Posted by swimfeeders ->
Hi

There are literally hundreds of such worst case documents in Government.

It was what the Emergency Planning Staff do.

They range a accident in a Nuclear Power Station to a tanker drivers strike.

It would be incredibly stupid not to do them and have a plan of action.

It does not mean that any of them will happen.

Paranoia gone mad.

We now know where all the mental patients went when
they closed the mental institutions Swimmy?
POSHOC is showing disturbing symptons imo
Regards Donkeyman!
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Solasch
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12-09-2019, 02:14 PM
15

Re: Yellowhammer released!

Originally Posted by swimfeeders ->
Hi

There are literally hundreds of such worst case documents in Government.

It was what the Emergency Planning Staff do.

They range a accident in a Nuclear Power Station to a tanker drivers strike.

It would be incredibly stupid not to do them and have a plan of action.

It does not mean that any of them will happen.

Paranoia gone mad.
Are you talking about contingency plans? The "risk" of a nuclear powerstation blows is mall, but the effects are great. Before chernobyl the effects were based on models, and effects were much underestimated. For such situations you have a plan to act upon.
Now you have brexit, and the best estimate of effects are based on models. Mostly the estimates are rather conservative, like chernobyls assessments were. Do you want brexit to blow up in your face?
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swimfeeders
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12-09-2019, 02:32 PM
16

Re: Yellowhammer released!

Originally Posted by Solasch ->
Are you talking about contingency plans? The "risk" of a nuclear powerstation blows is mall, but the effects are great. Before chernobyl the effects were based on models, and effects were much underestimated. For such situations you have a plan to act upon.
Now you have brexit, and the best estimate of effects are based on models. Mostly the estimates are rather conservative, like chernobyls assessments were. Do you want brexit to blow up in your face?
Hi

Certainly not, but then again the EU should not want Brexit to blow up in it's face either.

The Dover Scenario is based on modelling.

We cannot control the French, if they decide to take 5 minutes to check an HGV there will be huge delays very quickly.

However this would be a huge act of self harm for the EU.

The returning EU HGVs will be stuck here in the queues.
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Solasch
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12-09-2019, 02:38 PM
17

Re: Yellowhammer released!

Originally Posted by swimfeeders ->
Hi

However this would be a huge act of self harm for the EU.

The returning EU HGVs will be stuck here in the queues.
Only if the british would be so vengeful as to return the treatment of the french. I don't think the british would do something they condemn in the french.
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Bread
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12-09-2019, 03:23 PM
18

Re: Yellowhammer released!

Originally Posted by Solasch ->
Only if the british would be so vengeful as to return the treatment of the french. I don't think the british would do something they condemn in the french.

4 out of 5 of those lorries aren't British.

Just saying ...
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swimfeeders
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12-09-2019, 03:25 PM
19

Re: Yellowhammer released!

Originally Posted by Solasch ->
Only if the british would be so vengeful as to return the treatment of the french. I don't think the british would do something they condemn in the french.
Hi

How wrong you are.

We have no need to do anything, the HGVs will simply be stuck in the queue at Dover.
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Solasch
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12-09-2019, 03:56 PM
20

Re: Yellowhammer released!

Originally Posted by swimfeeders ->
Hi

How wrong you are.

We have no need to do anything, the HGVs will simply be stuck in the queue at Dover.
What queue at dover? You forget all the no deal planning boris is doing!
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