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28-08-2020, 10:29 AM
11

Re: Merkel scrubs brexit talks!

Originally Posted by OldGreyFox ->
I'm surprised to find you in here Solasch.........
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28-08-2020, 10:54 AM
12

Re: Merkel scrubs brexit talks!

Lots of 'ifs' and 'buts'.

Personally, I don't really care. The only thing I care about is us leaving without any strings or liabilities on 1 January 2021.

What hasn't been mentioned in this thread - yet - is that once we have left things will be different. At present, Barmy and his mates are trying to look 'hard' in the hope of frightening us to back down and give in to his demands.
After we have left, the penny will finally drop that he isn't going to get his own way. Give it a little time and we'll see them come to us asking nicely if we wouldn't mind making an agreement for trade which doesn't contravene any of our 'red lines' (which have already been explained elsewhere, of course).
Then the present stirrings within some of the EU 'member states' may well develop into some of them, one by one, deciding that they, too, might be better off as independent states.

I think the EU will have a great deal to think about after the end of this year!
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28-08-2020, 11:26 AM
13

Re: Merkel scrubs brexit talks!

Originally Posted by swimfeeders ->
Hi

Thanks for your comprehensive reply.

A few points.

The EU is a much bigger economy than the UK, so the effects will be less.

The 10% Import Tariff is on the base price, which is much less than the Retail Price.

Secondly, 40% of UK Car Production is exported to the EU, only 12% of EU Car Production is exported to the UK.

So, the effect on our car industry will be 3 times greater than the effect on the EU.

Your reply mentioned Ford.

They do not build any cars in the UK, they produce engines here, which are not subject to 10% tariffs.

Germany and France own their car manufacturers, we do not own ours, we have sold them off.

Even Rolls Royce and Bentley are German Owned.

As regards food production, we import vast amounts from the EU.

This makes sense as transport costs are far less than other Countries outside the EU simply due to proximity.

In order to protect our Food Supply our published Tariffs are minimal, you can check this online.

It will have minimal effect on EU Food Imports.

We will not suddenly start producing more, we are already very efficient at farming.

We cannot compete with EU Vegetables, they have a much lower land cost base and better weather, reducing production costs.

We are not going to suddenly start eating vast amounts of tripe, haslet, liver etc which we export to the EU.

As regards fish, we are not going to suddenly start eating vast amounts of mackerel, herring, megrim etc.

As regards the Trade Deal, we will have to wait and see who blinks first.

Leaving was not about money, at least not in my view.

Leaving was because of the way the EU was going, which I want no part of.

Your missing the point.

The EU is a big economy for sure, and a lot of that is to do with the trade with the UK, the USA and China.

The UK is the EU's second biggest trading partner (only about 20 or 30 billion behind the USA) and then it tails off dramatically to China in 3rd place and then the other countries. The economy of the EU is enormously dependent on exports to the UK and USA in order to maintain it and service it. When this changes, then economies change - should the UK buy more from the USA, Japan, Canada and Commonwealth countries, then this leaves a void in the trade exports from the EU and consequently diminishes it. Unless, of course, it finds new markets to sell to where it can make up for the loss in exports to the UK. The UK economy remains relatively untouched because what it was importing x% of beans from the EU now imports x% of beans from Canada, USA, Japan etc.

However, should the UK produce more of its own food and vegetables (which it is doing) these will be sold into the UK domestic market as well as for export. This means 2 things happen:

1. The UK imports less to service its requirements from elsewhere because we produce them here

2. The EU lose on market exports to the UK and therefore have an impact on businesses in the EU that rely on the UK as a supplier.

EU food is way overpriced for numerous reasons. One is because of non-tarrif barriers and the other because of unit cost increases because of the zero rated tariffs on our imports. What this means that although the unit cost for an apple (for example) costs £1 from the EU and an apple imported with tariffs from say, Brazil would be (say) £1.10 because of the tarrif, EU suppliers have hiked up the prices of their goods to (for example) £1.08 so although still "cheaper" they are making more profit.

However, look what happens when you apply the 10% tarrif to the EU .. their price now goes up to to beyond that of Brazil - even with the tariff applied. It's now more expensive for an apple from the EU than from Brazil - even with the same tariffs applied. Taking this one step further, if we have an FTA with Brazil then the EU has no chance in trading with us unless it cuts its costs dramatically, in which case, less tax revenues, higher unemployment and more wage cuts. So we can, under our own trading arrangements, set up our own tariffs and quotas to suit the UK. So that apple from Brazil may actually be only 80p, but because EU non-tarrif barriers do not apply anymore we not only open up new markets and suppliers, we do so at huge cost reductions which benefits consumers here and takes business away from the EU

If you think the impact on the EU economy will be less then think again. There are many reasons for this including:

1. The customs union and MFN tarrif rates
2. The inability of the Eurozone to adjust its currency
3. The massive subsidies the CAP receives which need to be continued (and even increased) because the UK no longer contributes to it and then on top of that the UK will be buying less from it.

The UK on the other hand can control its own trade policy to suit the UK (the EU has to suit 27 different member states), the UK has it's own centralised treasury and its own common tax policy to encourage businesses and thereby increasing revenues.

So this brings me to the next part - taxation. Because the UK controls its own VAT and corporation tax policies (now its left the EU) it can reduce VAT and corporation tax to make itself more attractive, less beurocratic and more profitable for foreign businesses to trade here and also subsidise its own businesses should it need to because it is no longer tied into EU state aid rules (like the 27 member states are). So where we have companies that are owned by other companies in other countries, their subsidiaries will be here, operating as UK companies and paying tax here in their own rights (for example Nissan UK Limited).

And finally, the UK can set up it's own free ports and free towns to enable duty free imports and exports so that manufacturing and assembly industries (to name a few) can operate at maximum efficiency with no tax duty liabilities as components and parts are shipped in and out of the UK. This is simply not possible in the EU because the export tariffs are applied when goods leave the EU under the rules of the customs union.

So its not quite as you say, Swimmy.


As for fish, we will become a supplier of all our species including mackerel, herring, cod, bass, sole once we leave. Our fishing industry is not intended to satisfy only UK consumers, the 60% of our stocks fished by EU member states go to their markets and are even sold back to the UK because under the CFP rules, we do not have the species quotas. So, the UK fleet will fish our territorial waters, providing all species of our fish to UK consumers and exporting processed fish from our ports to the member states (and the rest of the world). Our fishing industry was never meant to service only our UK consumers, this is simply not true, we will have a global market for our fishing industry, based on a UK Fishing Bill that provides a sustainable source of fish, complete with environmental and economic protections.

Now .... take a deep breath and sing along...

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28-08-2020, 01:48 PM
14

Re: Merkel scrubs brexit talks!

Originally Posted by Bread ->
Your missing the point.

The EU is a big economy for sure, and a lot of that is to do with the trade with the UK, the USA and China.
Taking all this into consideration, why would it be that david frost is the one telling there is still a deal possible in october, whereas barnier calls it unlikely? In effect frost is saying, "don't walk away, we will budge!".

Secondly, it is a parallel negotiation of which trade is only one of the paths. Any of the parallel paths shows this stagnation.
So, is this negotiation a lost case anyway?
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28-08-2020, 01:57 PM
15

Re: Merkel scrubs brexit talks!

Originally Posted by Solasch ->
Taking all this into consideration, why would it be that david frost is the one telling there is still a deal possible in october, whereas barnier calls it unlikely? In effect frost is saying, "don't walk away, we will budge!".

Secondly, it is a parallel negotiation of which trade is only one of the paths. Any of the parallel paths shows this stagnation.
So, is this negotiation a lost case anyway?
It's because of the parallel negotiations that nothings been achieved because they only go at the pace of the slowest part.

Frost has said there is a deal possible in October - of course there is, the EU need to take it. The draft legal texts are all there, Barnier has until end of September to agree it.

The UK has not budged on anything, Solasch and it won't. Thats why Barnier has achieved nothing, he isn't listening.
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28-08-2020, 02:05 PM
16

Re: Merkel scrubs brexit talks!

Originally Posted by Bread ->
Your missing the point.

The EU is a big economy for sure, and a lot of that is to do with the trade with the UK, the USA and China.

The UK is the EU's second biggest trading partner (only about 20 or 30 billion behind the USA) and then it tails off dramatically to China in 3rd place and then the other countries. The economy of the EU is enormously dependent on exports to the UK and USA in order to maintain it and service it. When this changes, then economies change - should the UK buy more from the USA, Japan, Canada and Commonwealth countries, then this leaves a void in the trade exports from the EU and consequently diminishes it. Unless, of course, it finds new markets to sell to where it can make up for the loss in exports to the UK. The UK economy remains relatively untouched because what it was importing x% of beans from the EU now imports x% of beans from Canada, USA, Japan etc.

However, should the UK produce more of its own food and vegetables (which it is doing) these will be sold into the UK domestic market as well as for export. This means 2 things happen:

1. The UK imports less to service its requirements from elsewhere because we produce them here

2. The EU lose on market exports to the UK and therefore have an impact on businesses in the EU that rely on the UK as a supplier.

EU food is way overpriced for numerous reasons. One is because of non-tarrif barriers and the other because of unit cost increases because of the zero rated tariffs on our imports. What this means that although the unit cost for an apple (for example) costs £1 from the EU and an apple imported with tariffs from say, Brazil would be (say) £1.10 because of the tarrif, EU suppliers have hiked up the prices of their goods to (for example) £1.08 so although still "cheaper" they are making more profit.

However, look what happens when you apply the 10% tarrif to the EU .. their price now goes up to to beyond that of Brazil - even with the tariff applied. It's now more expensive for an apple from the EU than from Brazil - even with the same tariffs applied. Taking this one step further, if we have an FTA with Brazil then the EU has no chance in trading with us unless it cuts its costs dramatically, in which case, less tax revenues, higher unemployment and more wage cuts. So we can, under our own trading arrangements, set up our own tariffs and quotas to suit the UK. So that apple from Brazil may actually be only 80p, but because EU non-tarrif barriers do not apply anymore we not only open up new markets and suppliers, we do so at huge cost reductions which benefits consumers here and takes business away from the EU

If you think the impact on the EU economy will be less then think again. There are many reasons for this including:

1. The customs union and MFN tarrif rates
2. The inability of the Eurozone to adjust its currency
3. The massive subsidies the CAP receives which need to be continued (and even increased) because the UK no longer contributes to it and then on top of that the UK will be buying less from it.

The UK on the other hand can control its own trade policy to suit the UK (the EU has to suit 27 different member states), the UK has it's own centralised treasury and its own common tax policy to encourage businesses and thereby increasing revenues.

So this brings me to the next part - taxation. Because the UK controls its own VAT and corporation tax policies (now its left the EU) it can reduce VAT and corporation tax to make itself more attractive, less beurocratic and more profitable for foreign businesses to trade here and also subsidise its own businesses should it need to because it is no longer tied into EU state aid rules (like the 27 member states are). So where we have companies that are owned by other companies in other countries, their subsidiaries will be here, operating as UK companies and paying tax here in their own rights (for example Nissan UK Limited).

And finally, the UK can set up it's own free ports and free towns to enable duty free imports and exports so that manufacturing and assembly industries (to name a few) can operate at maximum efficiency with no tax duty liabilities as components and parts are shipped in and out of the UK. This is simply not possible in the EU because the export tariffs are applied when goods leave the EU under the rules of the customs union.

So its not quite as you say, Swimmy.


As for fish, we will become a supplier of all our species including mackerel, herring, cod, bass, sole once we leave. Our fishing industry is not intended to satisfy only UK consumers, the 60% of our stocks fished by EU member states go to their markets and are even sold back to the UK because under the CFP rules, we do not have the species quotas. So, the UK fleet will fish our territorial waters, providing all species of our fish to UK consumers and exporting processed fish from our ports to the member states (and the rest of the world). Our fishing industry was never meant to service only our UK consumers, this is simply not true, we will have a global market for our fishing industry, based on a UK Fishing Bill that provides a sustainable source of fish, complete with environmental and economic protections.

Now .... take a deep breath and sing along...

You put it all so nicely Bread !!
And it ties in with my own thinking , We have only ourselves to fear??
I see the remainers are trying all they can now to displace Boris by
hook or by crook !!

Donkeyman! 👍👍😁😁👍👍
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28-08-2020, 02:09 PM
17

Re: Merkel scrubs brexit talks!

Originally Posted by Donkeyman ->
You put it all so nicely Bread !!
And it ties in with my own thinking , We have only ourselves to fear??
I see the remainers are trying all they can now to displace Boris by
hook or by crook !!

Donkeyman! 👍👍😁😁👍👍

Yep

The silent majority has Boris support
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28-08-2020, 02:09 PM
18

Re: Merkel scrubs brexit talks!

Originally Posted by Bread ->
It's because of the parallel negotiations that nothings been achieved because they only go at the pace of the slowest part.

Frost has said there is a deal possible in October - of course there is, the EU need to take it. The draft legal texts are all there, Barnier has until end of September to agree it.

The UK has not budged on anything, Solasch and it won't. Thats why Barnier has achieved nothing, he isn't listening.
You understand of course the reciprocality from the opposite side, and it is that what causes the stagnation?
Barnier only accept terms that are not detrimental for the single market. Should he accept the legal texts just because the brits tell him to? That colonial attitude doesn't wash anymore, but some in britcountry still haven't grasped that.
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28-08-2020, 02:10 PM
19

Re: Merkel scrubs brexit talks!

Originally Posted by Solasch ->
Taking all this into consideration, why would it be that david frost is the one telling there is still a deal possible in october, whereas barnier calls it unlikely? In effect frost is saying, "don't walk away, we will budge!".

Secondly, it is a parallel negotiation of which trade is only one of the paths. Any of the parallel paths shows this stagnation.
So, is this negotiation a lost case anyway?
Rather the opposite Solly, Frosty is waiting for Barmy to accept
OUR red lines ??

Donkeyman! 👍😁👍
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28-08-2020, 02:14 PM
20

Re: Merkel scrubs brexit talks!

Originally Posted by Solasch ->
You understand of course the reciprocality from the opposite side, and it is that what causes the stagnation?
Barnier only accept terms that are not detrimental for the single market. Should he accept the legal texts just because the brits tell him to? That colonial attitude doesn't wash anymore, but some in britcountry still haven't grasped that.

It isn't at all, barnier will not move away from the level playing field or fishing. The UK has nothing to do with the single market anyway - we aren't in it.

The only attitude that is colonial is the colonial EU
 
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