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Solasch
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25-08-2019, 08:07 PM
41

Re: Taking the Hit.

Originally Posted by Banchory ->
If the markets thought the UK leaving the EU was a good thing they would be betting on the pound not against it.

The fact is the pound has been falling and is likely to fall further on news of a no deal Brexit. Whether it rebounds would seem to be unlikely in a no deal scenario and whether it will recover over time is going to be dependant on a number of factors not least How quickly the UK can replace its lost trade agreements and forge others and how well UK and UK domiciled companies adapt to trading with the EU on WTO rules

I would love to see those who short the pound lose their shirts but I doubt it will happen
The pound has been falling for most of the time (see figure enclosed). There were two moments it had a moment of revival. In 1983 and 2000. Any significance in those two years for the UK?


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Moscow
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25-08-2019, 08:11 PM
42

Re: Taking the Hit.

Originally Posted by gascony ->
I'm not bothered by the offensive tone. I took no offense. I simply pointed out that the accusation and the use of the term "these people" is quite offensive. So thanks for your concern but please do not worry about me.
Actually, the post that triggered this was also quite offensive. Just presented as "it'll be fine, I can tighten my belt" casual comment. So I'm not sure what I am meant to apologise for (confused face - aren't these smilies truly dreadful?). Perhaps you can explain your smilie 'angry red face'. Is it anything to do with gammon?

For those not up to speed with Twitter insults...........

Gammon is used by lefty types too racially abuse older white folk with a ruddy complexion who hold non-lefty views.

Yes, it's pathetic and not as intelligently crafted as right of centre insults of leftys such as Snowflake.
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25-08-2019, 08:19 PM
43

Re: Taking the Hit.

Originally Posted by Banchory ->
If the markets thought the UK leaving the EU was a good thing they would be betting on the pound not against it.

The fact is the pound has been falling and is likely to fall further on news of a no deal Brexit. Whether it rebounds would seem to be unlikely in a no deal scenario and whether it will recover over time is going to be dependant on a number of factors not least How quickly the UK can replace its lost trade agreements and forge others and how well UK and UK domiciled companies adapt to trading with the EU on WTO rules

I would love to see those who short the pound lose their shirts but I doubt it will happen

The pound is falling for a number of reasons, including Brexit. It will bounce back it always does - its not as low as it was in 2008 if my memory serves me right ? YMMV

As for replacing our trade agreements there are only really 2 in question - one with the EU and the other with South Korea. So far we have South Korea ready to sign, plus Switzerland on the way. Then there is the USA which we will be signing up the first few bilateral agreements in September and Japan is also on the horizon.

How many ratified FTA has the EU completed to countries outside the single market ? Go on have a google and then look at the populations of the countries in EFTA.

If the EU want to trade with us without an FTA then we will be subjected to the common external tariff just like any other 3rd country. We simply buy our stuff that's in the best interest for the UK, unlike in the past when its in the best interest of Germany and France. I don't see why you think Brexit is a continuation of the protectionism of the EU - it isn't at all. You should bear this in mind when you post on here.

My company won't have any issues trading with WTO rules and neither should any other - they do this with the all other 3rd countries at the moment. Besides, the EU doesn't have trade deals with the USA or China and they are the two biggest economies in the world.

We can also create free ports and free towns, lower taxes such as corporation tax and VAT to make sure that the UK is one of the best places on the planet for business.

If anything it's the EU that needs to find a new market to replace the one thats just about to walk away and slam the door shut. It needs to find this replacement that has the potential of 100 billion in free trade that imports more than it exports and contributes 11.2 billion net back into it. A country prepared to sign up the single market, customs union, the Euro and be governed by Brussels and the ECJ.

So far its found Macedonia and Albania

Not going well is it
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25-08-2019, 08:28 PM
44

Re: Taking the Hit.

Originally Posted by Moscow ->
For those not up to speed with Twitter insults...........

Gammon is used by lefty types too racially abuse older white folk with a ruddy complexion who hold non-lefty views.

Yes, it's pathetic and not as intelligently crafted as right of centre insults of leftys such as Snowflake.

Funnily enough Moscow, I'm ordering the biggest gammon joint for 31st October.

I like gammon
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Bread
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25-08-2019, 10:47 PM
45

Re: Taking the Hit.

Originally Posted by gascony ->
Don't ask inane questions. Simply look up the exchange rate on the internet and look for a 20 year history of the exchange rate. Then post back and say "sorry, the Brexit vote did hammer the value of the pound by 25%". I await with anticipation.

Financial crisis was a bigger hit to the pound. It's only QE that's keeping the Eurozone from imploding. Something we managed 5 years ago to end.

Not the Eurozone though - it's all a complete mess. They can't adjust their currency value because they don't have a centralised Treasury. All the Eurozone can do is add austerity.

Question for you ...

What would you rather have

A. Our weak pound
B the Euro

Which one ?
Banchory
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26-08-2019, 12:47 AM
46

Re: Taking the Hit.

Originally Posted by Bread ->
The pound is falling for a number of reasons, including Brexit. It will bounce back it always does - its not as low as it was in 2008 if my memory serves me right ? YMMV

As for replacing our trade agreements there are only really 2 in question - one with the EU and the other with South Korea. So far we have South Korea ready to sign, plus Switzerland on the way. Then there is the USA which we will be signing up the first few bilateral agreements in September and Japan is also on the horizon.

How many ratified FTA has the EU completed to countries outside the single market ? Go on have a google and then look at the populations of the countries in EFTA.

If the EU want to trade with us without an FTA then we will be subjected to the common external tariff just like any other 3rd country. We simply buy our stuff that's in the best interest for the UK, unlike in the past when its in the best interest of Germany and France. I don't see why you think Brexit is a continuation of the protectionism of the EU - it isn't at all. You should bear this in mind when you post on here.

My company won't have any issues trading with WTO rules and neither should any other - they do this with the all other 3rd countries at the moment. Besides, the EU doesn't have trade deals with the USA or China and they are the two biggest economies in the world.

We can also create free ports and free towns, lower taxes such as corporation tax and VAT to make sure that the UK is one of the best places on the planet for business.

If anything it's the EU that needs to find a new market to replace the one thats just about to walk away and slam the door shut. It needs to find this replacement that has the potential of 100 billion in free trade that imports more than it exports and contributes 11.2 billion net back into it. A country prepared to sign up the single market, customs union, the Euro and be governed by Brussels and the ECJ.

So far its found Macedonia and Albania

Not going well is it
The House of Representatives has already stated it will not allow a trade deal with the UK if it rejects the backstop without having a working solution to the border issue, Japan has stated that we will not get as good a deal as the EU and China/UK relations are not conducive to any deal at present and China sees a deal with the EU as it’s primary objective. Additionally the UK leaving the EU has removed the main obstacle to an India/EU trade deal

The UK will not stop buying from the EU countries, we will just be paying more for it due to the worsening exchange rate

The UK companies who export to the EU will find the tariffs applied to their products make them less competitive and they will need to find new markets to offset and reduction in trade. Trading on WTZo terms is a massive retrograde step and as you keep telling us it’s what you voted for and yet you have no experience of trading under those terms and as you are supposedly a consultant therefore you never will as WTO does not cover services

Freeport’s and free trade zones are not the universal panacea you think they are else everybody would be having them, the concept has worked for Singapore but the metrics that make them successful for Singapore are not the same in the UK

The pound bouncing back from s period of global recession is not new phenomenon as we have had a number of boom and bust cycles over the years and there is a degree of predictability to to situation. Brexit ins new uncharted territory and there is no certainty of a bounce back

The EU will survive as they are more prepared and their unity is clear to see. We however are a long way off being ready and the consequences of a no deal Brexit are something the people of the UK may not like

Boris is already panicking, diplomacy has gone out the window and he’s started to issue threats. It’s certainly not going well for him,
Moscow
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26-08-2019, 07:10 AM
47

Re: Taking the Hit.

Originally Posted by Bread ->
Funnily enough Moscow, I'm ordering the biggest gammon joint for 31st October.

I like gammon
I reckon 17,400,000 gammon joints will be enjoyed on that day.

It will become a new British tradition and a Bank Holiday and lead to a revival in the British Pork industry.
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Bread
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Sudbury, United Kingdom
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26-08-2019, 07:33 AM
48

Re: Taking the Hit.

Originally Posted by Banchory ->
The House of Representatives has already stated it will not allow a trade deal with the UK if it rejects the backstop without having a working solution to the border issue, Japan has stated that we will not get as good a deal as the EU and China/UK relations are not conducive to any deal at present and China sees a deal with the EU as it’s primary objective. Additionally the UK leaving the EU has removed the main obstacle to an India/EU trade deal

The UK will not stop buying from the EU countries, we will just be paying more for it due to the worsening exchange rate

The UK companies who export to the EU will find the tariffs applied to their products make them less competitive and they will need to find new markets to offset and reduction in trade. Trading on WTZo terms is a massive retrograde step and as you keep telling us it’s what you voted for and yet you have no experience of trading under those terms and as you are supposedly a consultant therefore you never will as WTO does not cover services

Freeport’s and free trade zones are not the universal panacea you think they are else everybody would be having them, the concept has worked for Singapore but the metrics that make them successful for Singapore are not the same in the UK

The pound bouncing back from s period of global recession is not new phenomenon as we have had a number of boom and bust cycles over the years and there is a degree of predictability to to situation. Brexit ins new uncharted territory and there is no certainty of a bounce back

The EU will survive as they are more prepared and their unity is clear to see. We however are a long way off being ready and the consequences of a no deal Brexit are something the people of the UK may not like

Boris is already panicking, diplomacy has gone out the window and he’s started to issue threats. It’s certainly not going well for him,

The HOR did not say that at all.

Nut case Nancy said the HOR would vote against any trade deal with the UK if the GFA was affected by building a hard border. As nobody is going to build a hard border anyway I can't see why this us an issue

Besides the HOR dont have the numbers and if they did vote against any trade deal with the UK they would lose votes hand over fist from the agricultural areas in the USA. Nut case Nancy is the USA equivalent of Diane Abbott.

Can you please read my posts on trade instead of saying the same thing over and over again ... your still thinking we will be part of a protectionist block after we leave ... you still dont understand brexit yet Besides, goods from the EU are too expensive anyway ... we can get cheaper elsewhere or even better, grow and buy our own go into Tesco and see how much produce is british now ... it really will surprise you.

Another thing is that a lot of large retailers buy their currency a year or more in advance so the weak pound won't affect their buying power until end 2020, 2021 onwards and a lot of contracts are done on fixed exchange rates that run for 12 months or more. On the other hand nobody will be buying Merkel's cars or going on holiday to spain. Nothing the EU can do about that... dam shame

A lot of my contracts are on fixed price day rates so I'm making a killing on the weak pound because most of my customers pay me in Euros and the rate is calculated at the time I send my invoice.

As for Boris getting desperate, it certainly doesn't look like it to me. In fact we are a lot more prepared for a no deal Brexit than the member states Lord Wolfson wrote an excellent article in the MoS yesterday about it - a remainer turned Brexiter but I bet you didn't read that either

I see you still can't answer my questions . No surprises there - you can't google up your own opinions
spitfire
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26-08-2019, 07:46 AM
49

Re: Taking the Hit.

That's the trouble with this Global Stuff, its just not Cricket!
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Muddy
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26-08-2019, 08:42 AM
50

Re: Taking the Hit.

Originally Posted by Moscow ->
For those not up to speed with Twitter insults...........

Gammon is used by lefty types too racially abuse older white folk with a ruddy complexion who hold non-lefty views.

Yes, it's pathetic and not as intelligently crafted as right of centre insults of leftys such as Snowflake.
I didn’t know that .
I don’t do Twitter it’s for twits.
 
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