03-05-2020, 03:54 PM
21
Re: New infection statistics!
Originally Posted by marciniak
->
I still would have thought using the world mortality rate as an average ie; deaths per number of infections per day/week or month, would prove the best indicatorThe number of deaths should give an idea to the number of infections.
03-05-2020, 06:59 PM
23
Re: New infection statistics!
Originally Posted by marciniak
->
I still would have thought using the world mortality rate as an average ie; deaths per number of infections per day/week or month, would prove the best indicatorThe number of deaths should give an idea to the number of infections.
So less recorded deaths must mean less infections.
Lack of tests will only produce fewer infections giving a false higher rate in Mortality.
And more testing should show a higher number of infections, which would show a lower mortality rate.
With a mortality rate showing anything from 2% and 16% ( guess) could hopefully mean there are many more unreported/unknown cases of covid 19…. Hopefully.
With government hoping new infection fall below 1000 per day should mean (approx) 800 deaths per week at present rate
succeeding in beating the epidemic by using the death rate marciniak
can you tell me what it will indicate if the deaths go to zero, but people
are still falling ill with corona, and indeed if infection rates go up
Which is quite possible to happen imo?
Donkeyman! 🤔🤔
03-05-2020, 08:34 PM
24
Re: New infection statistics!
Say the mortality rate is 3% (approx.)If the death rate becomes zero for a number of days
But new covid cases rise so will the death rate.
If one death is recorded, should indicate 33 infections
If three deaths are recorded, should indicate 100 infections
No deaths should indicate less than 33 infections and falling.( Over a period of time)
Well that’s my take, and with the death rate rising at a lower percentage rate of the previous rises recently, and hospital admissions falling ,with an extra month lockdown I really hope this is a sign of better times are ahead, and again, hopefully not that far away either.
But all these calculists agree the actions of so called covid idiots screw up all test results and predicted forecasts.
03-05-2020, 10:01 PM
26
Re: New infection statistics!
Its interesting, and kind of reassuring to see Spain death rate has fallen from April 1st 900 odd, with a continual fall to the last few days, resulting in an average of 220 deaths per day.With signs this is a continuing trend... Also quite speedy too, just a month.
03-05-2020, 10:08 PM
27
Re: New infection statistics!
Originally Posted by marciniak
->
I still would have thought using the world mortality rate as an average ie; deaths per number of infections per day/week or month, would prove the best indicatorThe number of deaths should give an idea to the number of infections.
So less recorded deaths must mean less infections.
Lack of tests will only produce fewer infections giving a false higher rate in Mortality.
And more testing should show a higher number of infections, which would show a lower mortality rate.
With a mortality rate showing anything from 2% and 16% ( guess) could hopefully mean there are many more unreported/unknown cases of covid 19…. Hopefully.
With government hoping new infection fall below 1000 per day should mean (approx) 800 deaths per week at present rate
Originally Posted by marciniak
->
Say the mortality rate is 3% (approx.)If the death rate becomes zero for a number of days
But new covid cases rise so will the death rate.
If one death is recorded, should indicate 33 infections
If three deaths are recorded, should indicate 100 infections
No deaths should indicate less than 33 infections and falling.( Over a period of time)
Well that’s my take, and with the death rate rising at a lower percentage rate of the previous rises recently, and hospital admissions falling ,with an extra month lockdown I really hope this is a sign of better times are ahead, and again, hopefully not that far away either.
But all these calculists agree the actions of so called covid idiots screw up all test results and predicted forecasts.
That is not neccassarily so is it?
For example, it has been accepted that the majority of deaths take
place amongst the old and allready sick, and that younger healthy
individuals will survive or not even know that they had corona,
So if this is so then eventually the virus will kill all the weakly ones
and then have no more weak victims left to kill?
So the death rate will become zero but the new infections will rise?
This is how immunity is built up in communities eventually as the
weak are weeded out and the virus becomes unable to kill the rest
Yes your take could well turn out right, but my point is that it aint
neccassarily so, and the signs are improving but l await the next
two weeks results of new infections before l will ring any bells!
Donkeyman! 🤘🤘
03-05-2020, 10:44 PM
28
Re: New infection statistics!
Yes I am sure you are right, but I just gave the basic formula.But with less infected ( herd immune ) transmission of the virus will be harder hopefully.
China (Wuhan ) has a huge population many of which are old age, but luckily your theory hasn't played out there, why ? I can only guess.
But I see what you are saying,( thanks for cheering me up lol )
But I am sure given all the right data some of these calculists would have some kind of answer...all way above my head.
04-05-2020, 09:31 AM
30
Re: New infection statistics!
Originally Posted by AnnieS
->
You should be able to estimate the level of actual infections per 100k based on the deaths per 100k by working back from the average death rate.
the the new case data it is not posted up front like the death
statistics on TV?
As you can see on the link Omah so kindly posted for me it gives
a daily increase graph on which you can see that allthough the
death rate has fallen nicely for the last couple of days but on the
accompanying graph that that the new or current case trend is
still up allthough not so steeply?
I am watching this with interest!
I still question why the new infection data is not published in an
open manner like the death stats?
Maybe its to cheer us up as marciniak suggests?
Donkeyman! 😟😟😟
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