Re: What Comes Next?

Alleviate?

In your dreams! Problems like if to buy an electric or hybrid or fossil fuel new car maybe or if to buy a tin of salmon or a tin of tuna (yeugh) going out of the window maybe, but there's going to be huge number of brand new or returning old problems coming through the door.

The finance sector is going to be smashed far worse than in the Great Depression, house prices will implode but that will be no help because the pound will tank, unemployment will soar because of businesses having gone to the wall and I can see rationing being brought in.

Whatever comes down the pike it won't be a return to what we had thought of as normal and it won't be nice.

Re: What Comes Next?

Aye, where there's muck there's brass .....

Re: What Comes Next?

Not wishing to be a 'prophet of doom' but I look at the future and shudder...

The C19 has yet to get established in some areas of the world, when it does we could see mass migration from those countries with little or no health care .

When a vaccine is developed it will take a long time to produce enough for the entire world, I can envisage fights over who will have priority for vaccination.

For many people they won't have the same amount of spare cash they once had for non-essentials and some of the businesses they supported will be slow to recover if they do at all.

On the positive side, new ways of trading locally and countries being more self sufficient will become the norm.

Personally I can't see a time in the coming months when it will be safe for me to go out if I wish to survive, I will be a long term prisoner of the C19 virus.

Re: What Comes Next?

Surely it has to a question of risk management? Risk Vs benefits. Given a choice of (say) even a 20% risk of harm Vs 80% avoiding the Chinese plague it's a No Brainer.

Re: What Comes Next?

There'll be a compromise between lockdown and economies. A slackening of lockdowns causing a certain number of deaths will be considered worth it to try and avoid economic ruin.

Re: What Comes Next?

Changes in the next 3 to 6 month

I believe in the next 6 months there will be a huge reduction in the virus curve, with new infections falling to the levels, dramatically easing workload pressures, which will enable the NHS to resume the care and treatments of all patients.

I believe this will also prove to be the case across most of Europe and America.

Lockdown will be lifted in the next 3 months, more allowances/help for older people will be put in place, sadly they will still have to take/continue cautious measures on distancing, even though risk of infection will be greatly reduced.

More test/testing to monitor in schools, work place and at doctors surgery.


I believe before the end of the year, a vaccine will be available, but due to production only available to those most at risk.

Also the next 6 months, more information will, how many were actually infected, what was/is the mortality rate, did the BCG vaccination help, were the ethnic people more at risk and did climate help reduce the spread.

These comments are just my opinions, whether their right or wrong I don’t really know.

It’s a good topic, interesting to read other opinions.

Re: What Comes Next?

Well it would make perfect sense after all. After all every life has a hard cash value.

A number of estimates have been made based on the added value a person makes to the economy each year Vs the cost of preserving it. The general agreement based on insurance actuaries and industry is about $US 135,000 pa which amounts to circa $US 8 MIL full life.

Remember the infamous Ford Pinto case? When the Ford board on finding a major defect that resulted in even a minor back end shunt being highly likely to result in a fire resulting in the probability of everyone in the car being turned into "crispy-critter"? (Iraq war)

In that case the board when faced with the costs of a recall-and-scrap --- or a series of actions for deaths decided on the latter based on a cost/benefit evaluation.

Ford did not come out well when this became known.

So it must be with the Chinese Plague. There is coming a point where the loss of life will have to balanced with the cost of maintaining the lock down and a very hard choice is going to HAVE to be made.

If placed in the position of having to make that decision sadly I know what I would do.

Re: What Comes Next?

Indeed,but the MMR is not without controversy.

Re: What Comes Next?

The controversy over the MMR immunisation program is being driven by the anti-vaxers and very bad science. If the deadly impacts that the Chinese Plage has was the consequence of measles or mumps or German measles then I'm pretty bloody certainty that most of the anti-vaxers would be at the front of the queue with sleeves rolled up or trousers round their ankles or maybe both

Re: What Comes Next?

Marcinack.
I love your optimism!!!