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gascony
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20-08-2019, 09:48 AM
11

Re: EU Fluff and Bluster

Originally Posted by Bread ->
A no deal Brexit would be catastrophic to the EU

You can quote the bullshit from people like Barnier all day long it changes the EU situation not one bit. Your "treasure island" is walking away free to trade on it's own terms, not theirs and this simply means less trade from the EU. What do you think will happen to EU revenues if this happens ?

Are you honestly saying that the EU has a magic money tree but didn't tell anyone about ? We are its 2nd biggest nett contributor... it plans to increase its 2020 budget and make up the shortfall from Denmark France and Germany. The latter of which is going (or already in) recession.

Yeah ... your well prepared for this one... not
Funny, I didn't quote from Barnier. You must be getting paranoid about his superior negotiating position.
And you still have not grasped the central position of the EU - damaging the EU is worse than a no deal UK exit.
And you are unable to do simple maths. The impact on the UK will be many times worse than the impact on the UK. After a no deal Brexit the UK will be super desperate for any deal. I doubt the EU will want to be extra nice to the UK if the UK forces a no deal exit on them. Great planning.
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Bread
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20-08-2019, 09:58 AM
12

Re: EU Fluff and Bluster

Originally Posted by gascony ->
Funny, I didn't quote from Barnier. You must be getting paranoid about his superior negotiating position.
And you still have not grasped the central position of the EU - damaging the EU is worse than a no deal UK exit.
And you are unable to do simple maths. The impact on the UK will be many times worse than the impact on the UK. After a no deal Brexit the UK will be super desperate for any deal. I doubt the EU will want to be extra nice to the UK if the UK forces a no deal exit on them. Great planning.
How will the impact on Global UK be worse than Protectionist EU when we are the 2nd biggest net contributor, and the biggest single market for the EU after we leave ?

We are the 3rd biggest importer of German cars and a have about a £65 billion a year trade deficit in goods...

We are about to buy our stuff from elsewhere (USA and Commonwealth most likely, plus we will also increase our farming) and no longer contribute any money to the EU coffers - the EU need to find a way to make up this shortfall and I don't see any new markets opening up for Merkels cars or French agriculture ... In fact, quite the opposite now Germany is going into recession and the EU as a block goes further into decline.

Mercusor - thats a great idea for France and Irelands farming isn't it ? Then look at the USA free trade beef exports that are now permitted since the last couple of weeks or so. That should stuff their quotas up

How's this for basic maths ...

EU TOTAL FUNDING - BIGGEST SINGLE MARKET - £11.2 Billion Net Contributions - Chunk of £65 Billion Trade Defecit = ????
gascony
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20-08-2019, 10:09 AM
13

Re: EU Fluff and Bluster

"We are the 3rd biggest importer of German cars and a have about a £65 billion a year trade deficit in goods..."
I know you desperately want this purchasing of German cars to fall to zero. I know you desperately want the trade deficit with the EU to swing the other way. I know you desperately want poor quality but cheap imports from everywhere else (that always placates the masses when UK is not prepared to accommodate wage rises or social care improvements).
But you can't always get what you want, even when you are really really angry and passionate about it.
Example: most studies predict a fall in imports of cars from German companies by about 15%. Not 100%. 15%. Whereas what the UK will get is a near shutting down of the UK automotive sector. I guess you could call that winning.
Example: UK farming will see profits fall by over £800m per year which will put many out of business. The UK will be flooded by cheap poor quality food imports. More farms will go out of business. The impact on the EU agri sector - negligible. I guess that is winning.
Donkeyman
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20-08-2019, 10:12 AM
14

Re: EU Fluff and Bluster

Originally Posted by gascony ->
Look who is rattled. All these anti-EU posts already on this thread. Chaps, I’m so sorry to break the news to you (that is, blindingly obvious and right in your face news) but the EU is bothered by a hard no deal exit but less bothered than damaging the EU. A very senior European banker candidly told me months ago that European countries and companies expect pain but equally were well prepared. And you know, the numbers and the facts support the truth / fact / not made up wishful pish that the EU can ride the issues.
But you know what else? They will enable trade so that the UK does not collapse. It’s pragmatic logic. You Brexit chaps should try to understand the benefits of pragmatism. Not idiot ideology. (Oops, did I call your ideology idiotic? Yes.)
So you think eu will as you said, enable trade AFTER brexit?
Then we are in agreement Gascony, what are we arguing
about on this forum? We agree!
The leave side of the brexit discussion have allways advocated
leaving before negotiating!
As opposed to the renain side who believe we should
negotiate first whilst we are still constrained by eu rules and
regulations, in effect to have our hands tied behind our backs!
It is quite refreshing to hear someone from the other side who
endorses the leave philosophy now?

Regards Donkeyman!
gascony
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20-08-2019, 10:21 AM
15

Re: EU Fluff and Bluster

Originally Posted by Donkeyman ->
So you think eu will as you said, enable trade AFTER brexit?
Then we are in agreement Gascony, what are we arguing
about on this forum? We agree!
The leave side of the brexit discussion have allways advocated
leaving before negotiating!
As opposed to the renain side who believe we should
negotiate first whilst we are still constrained by eu rules and
regulations, in effect to have our hands tied behind our backs!
It is quite refreshing to hear someone from the other side who
endorses the leave philosophy now?

Regards Donkeyman!
You somewhat misunderstand me. Naturally the EU will want to establish better than WTO standards trading. It will be beneficial to them and, as they want a long positive relationship with the UK, they want it be positive for the UK too. Therefore of course the agreements will come together over time.
The foolishness of this approach is surely self evident? First we create a period of massive trade impairment which will be damaging. What's the logic in that? Second we place ourselves in a position of vulnerability and urgency - thus more willing to concede to a less favourable deal(s). What's the logic in doing that? Leaving without a deal does not improve our negotiating position, and it hugely harms our standing. You are aware that no other country has done that?
I guess if you like chaos risk and problems leaving with no deal is a great idea. I prefer stability, managed transition and clarity of what's going to happen ... and so do the financial markets (apart from the hedge funds that like betting against things and will massively profit from it).
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20-08-2019, 10:34 AM
16

Re: EU Fluff and Bluster

Originally Posted by gascony ->
"We are the 3rd biggest importer of German cars and a have about a £65 billion a year trade deficit in goods..."
I know you desperately want this purchasing of German cars to fall to zero. I know you desperately want the trade deficit with the EU to swing the other way. I know you desperately want poor quality but cheap imports from everywhere else (that always placates the masses when UK is not prepared to accommodate wage rises or social care improvements).
But you can't always get what you want, even when you are really really angry and passionate about it.
Example: most studies predict a fall in imports of cars from German companies by about 15%. Not 100%. 15%. Whereas what the UK will get is a near shutting down of the UK automotive sector. I guess you could call that winning.
Example: UK farming will see profits fall by over £800m per year which will put many out of business. The UK will be flooded by cheap poor quality food imports. More farms will go out of business. The impact on the EU agri sector - negligible. I guess that is winning.

See - you can't answer my point you're just making false accusations about my opinions on EU (in particular, German) imports. Why are other 3rd country imports inferior to your German masters ? Japanese cars are just as good as German ones, so are Fords, Hyundais and Kias. Consumer choice does not revolve around your EU supremacy bullshit.

Germany's economy relies on its manufacturing and the EU relies on Germany as its largest nett contributor. If German imports are impacted by UK tarrifs after Brexit it is not just the financial impact that will affect the EU it is the huge amounts of unemployment that will follow. I've heard figures of up to 1 in 7 Germans being out of work if there is a no deal Brexit due to the tarrifs imposed on German cars in particular.

I don't want to see German car exports go to 0% at all - my point is German car exports are the backbone of Germanys economy and if this gets affected, it impacts the whole of the EU.

The UK on the other hand can buy elsewhere - Germany needs to find new markets that do not exist and the ones they have are not buying their cars. Funnily enough the 2 countries USA and China take a share of the problem and neither have a trade deal with the EU.

Well, fancy that ...
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20-08-2019, 10:56 AM
17

Re: EU Fluff and Bluster

Originally Posted by gascony ->
"We are the 3rd biggest importer of German cars and a have about a £65 billion a year trade deficit in goods..."
I know you desperately want this purchasing of German cars to fall to zero. I know you desperately want the trade deficit with the EU to swing the other way. I know you desperately want poor quality but cheap imports from everywhere else (that always placates the masses when UK is not prepared to accommodate wage rises or social care improvements).
But you can't always get what you want, even when you are really really angry and passionate about it.
Example: most studies predict a fall in imports of cars from German companies by about 15%. Not 100%. 15%. Whereas what the UK will get is a near shutting down of the UK automotive sector. I guess you could call that winning.
Example: UK farming will see profits fall by over £800m per year which will put many out of business. The UK will be flooded by cheap poor quality food imports. More farms will go out of business. The impact on the EU agri sector - negligible. I guess that is winning.

Of course we want most of the above Gascony! That is why
nations trade with each other? To achieve a profit! Not so!
If there is no profit there is no benefit unless it is a
strategic commodity!
Where do you think uk gets the money from to pay our deficit
and our fees to eu??
Obviously from out of eu somewhere? In other words something
is subsidising eu membership? Not so??
Understandably we wish to change this? Hence where we are
now! We only wanted to leave the club, we dont wish to
cause anybodies downfall!
How did we get where we are now?
Imo the remain side bear the majority of the blame by not
acknowledging the result of the ref
The eu compounded things by using the divisions in uk to
obstruct things further!
I am not a Boris fan but he has my support for now as he
has managed to get a little momentum going but his big
test is about to start with POSHOC warming up in the wings
as we speak!
Imo Boris and Nigel should form an alliance untill we have
actually achieved exit!

Regards Donkeyman!
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20-08-2019, 11:21 AM
18

Re: EU Fluff and Bluster

Originally Posted by gascony ->
You somewhat misunderstand me. Naturally the EU will want to establish better than WTO standards trading. It will be beneficial to them and, as they want a long positive relationship with the UK, they want it be positive for the UK too. Therefore of course the agreements will come together over time.
The foolishness of this approach is surely self evident? First we create a period of massive trade impairment which will be damaging. What's the logic in that? Second we place ourselves in a position of vulnerability and urgency - thus more willing to concede to a less favourable deal(s). What's the logic in doing that? Leaving without a deal does not improve our negotiating position, and it hugely harms our standing. You are aware that no other country has done that?
I guess if you like chaos risk and problems leaving with no deal is a great idea. I prefer stability, managed transition and clarity of what's going to happen ... and so do the financial markets (apart from the hedge funds that like betting against things and will massively profit from it).
So you still agree that pragmatism will win out in the end
then Goscony?
So we have made some progress at last?
But it would seem only after a more definite attitude on the
part of uk gov instead of the at best, tentative efforts of
the previous PM!
We shall soon see if the slight momentum achieved so far
can be maintained, if the eu commissions views coincide with
yours Gascony all will be well!

Regards Donkeyman!
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20-08-2019, 11:39 AM
19

Re: EU Fluff and Bluster

There are other ports beside Calais such as Rotterdam and Belgium. Both of which are desperate to get their hands on Calais trade.
swimfeeders
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20-08-2019, 12:23 PM
20

Re: EU Fluff and Bluster

Originally Posted by Bread ->
There are other ports beside Calais such as Rotterdam and Belgium. Both of which are desperate to get their hands on Calais trade.
Hi

Same problems though with RoRo.

They do not have the infrastructure and costs of crossings and time of crossing are greater.

We have to build more RoRo terminals here in the UK or offsite Secure Customs Areas.
 
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