Whats Next for Brexit ?
After last nights shenanigans in the House of Commons, the waters just got a whole lot muddier.
Or have they ?
I spent some time in the early hours this morning mulling things over and came to a rather surprising conclusion (as I see it anyway).
Mays Deal Gets Approved (finally) in MV3
I doubt it ... its a crap deal and a crap deal is a crap deal. Last time around it was voted against by 149 MPs, the time before by 230 ... it wont have changed since 12th March so why the big change of heart by MPs to suddenly vote in favour of it ? To save Brexit ? Is it worth annexing Northern Ireland and leaving us in the CU and SM without a vote ? Nope - this is not going to fly.
Maybe we could tear up the agreement using the Vienna Convention A62, 65 and 67 (like I suggested before - the Gove/Mogg idea) then use the UN to arbitrate ? We "could" do this but its super high risk and if it fails we could end up in a much much worse situation than staying in the EU.... so this falls by the wayside.
The EU agree to a 3 month extension
I doubt it ... what will it be for ? To put through the crappy WA at the risk of a load of eurosceptic MPs from the UK infiltrating the voting process in the EU Parliament ? Besides, the EU have already told us an extension can only be granted for a general election or a second referendum, the chances of these are very slim indeed. Especially after the 2nd Referendum was voted down yesterday, even by the 2nd Referendum party, labour.
Besides, in order to get a technical extension to A50 we need a decision - we are asking the EU for a decision before the vote.... there are no guarantees here and the risk of the decision being revoked ....
The WA comes back for MV4 after failing two get approval in MV3
If it is unchanged, then Bercow may not allow it as under Erskine May, the same subject cannot be voted on twice, so the WA may be off the table completely next week (after MV3).
May gets a 2 year Extension to "Start Again"
This would mean withdrawing A50 and then triggering it again. An act of self destruction for the Tories and a complete betrayal of Brexit. It would open up the possibility of a General Election during the negotiations and also the possibility of a 2nd Referendum. Doing this would completely undermine the UK democratic process and prolong the agony, confusion and uncertainty that we are supposed to draw a line under on the 29th March.
Furthermore, a 2 year extension to start again would in reality be almost identical to signing the Withdrawal Agreement in the first place. It wouldn't come with any guarantees the UK would be voting member of the EU (far from it) and the result of another 2 years negotiations would only give us the same result. Plus ..... more money to the EU which would be bad, bad, bad for the UK tax payer.
Besides, what would the reason be that we give the EU for a 2 year extension ? Because we fcked up the negotiations and we just "need more time" ? It wont fly with the EU - they havre told us and told us that only a GE or a 2nd Referendum will suffice ....
Leave With No Deal on the 29th March
Still the most likely option in my view. Without an alternative, UK law is to leave the EU on 29th March, deal or no deal...
In order to revoke A50 we would have to have something to replace it with, but all the options have been proposed and voted down or denied by the EU - the only thing left is to "stay in the EU" and this would be suicide for Parliament .... it simply wont happen. The only things we can do unilaterally now is to surrender to the EU and revoke A50 or leave on 29th March with no deal. Everything else needs the EU to agree - we are only in control of staying (betrayal) or hard Brexit (delivering on the will of the people) .....
So a hard Brexit on 29th March is still the most likely outcome in my view ...
What we need now is the remain and leave members of parliament to unite and give us the vision of the future for the UK outside the EU. Over the past 4/5 years or so since the referendum was announced, until now where we are about to leave we see that ...
1. Project fear is just that - a load of people trying to frighten voters and getting it wrong .... every time.
2. Those who didn't know what they were voting for at the time of the referendum, have learned a lot. They haven't changed their mind either
3. The Irish border is just a plot by the EU to try to keep us in the EU. This and how they have humiliated the UK our democracy, prime minister and those who voted to leave has made a lot of people angry. There are remainers who support leave and remainers who want to uphold democracy. The country is more united than we are lead to believe ... but, parliament has some serious decisions to make in the next few days that's for sure. They are either with Brexit or they get a job in retail - their options are more limited than Theresa May's.
4. We now need the vision of the future outside of the EU to be provided. I pray that the next Prime Minister will deliver this in the next few days (please Theresa May, resign next week) and calm the waters. Business needs reassurance and the rest of the world needs the green light to invest and adapt to a global Britain outside of the EU.
I really do hope I'm right.