Re: Brexit could 'blow £100bn hole in economy'

Professor Minford is a government Advisor on economics , he doesn't agree with the article above which says ...
''A UK vote to leave the European Union could cost the UK economy £100bn and 950,000 jobs by 2020, according to research commissioned by the Confederation of British Industry'' note the word 'could' not will .

An interesting interview with Patrick Minford..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=leKEUT1TiLU


More interesting reading on the Truth behind the EU accounts...
http://worldinnovationfoundation.blo...ounts-and.html

Re: Brexit could 'blow £100bn hole in economy'

It won't make a difference to me personally one way or the other, maybe more red tape, but that's nothing new. It will affect people I know. The company my son works for have already warned employees there is a possibility they will lose their jobs if the company closes, much of their transport business is in Europe. I also know two owner drivers who are very concerned too as they are backwards and forwards to Europe constantly. Higher tariffs will put them out of business. I'm sure job losses will worry many people. It's alright saying "it's all scaremongering" but many people can't afford to take that chance can they?

Re: Brexit could 'blow £100bn hole in economy'

You and your family must be in a very stable economic position Meg, unfortunately very many people are not.

Re: Brexit could 'blow £100bn hole in economy'

I think they will be more stable when we leave the EU Loretta.
I guess you could say I am stable, I have very little but my needs are simple so I am unlikely to win or lose either way but I want to see this country run by its inhabitance not the EU ..

Some interesting reading...
Three of the great Myths about staying in the EU
http://worldinnovationfoundation.blo...f-staying.html

Why Switzerland isn't joining the EU
http://worldinnovationfoundation.blo...t-to-join.html

some lessons there for us I think..

Re: Brexit could 'blow £100bn hole in economy'

It is rubbish it will cost us much much more, if we get out.

I'm for IN

Re: Brexit could 'blow £100bn hole in economy'

In out in out shake it all about.
I'm for OUT!

Re: Brexit could 'blow £100bn hole in economy'

Hi

The truth is Brexit is going to hurt, how much nobody knows.

This is because Dopey Dave has done it wrong.

He should have invoked Article 50, the we want to leave bit and then negotiated before we had a referendum.

We would then have been faced with a choice,

Do we leave?

Staying in will cost us £X

If we leave, this is the deal we will get.

He didn't so we have no idea what it will cost.

If you are voting Out to control Immigration, forget it.

Both Norway and Switzerland who have good deals with the EU have them on two conditions.

The first one is they have to abide by EU Regulations.

The second one is the kicker.

Both Norway and Switzerland have to accept free movement of EU Citizens to live and work there.

So we will be no better off in that respect.

The EU have made it perfectly clear that that rule will apply to the UK as well and two Countries, Romania and Bulgaria have already stated that they will boycott any change to that rule.

Many people are unaware of this, but it is what will happen.

That leaves us with one option, we trade with the EU on the WTO Terms.

It will not kill us, other Countries trade on that basis, but it is going to be a big hit for years until we build up alternative Markets for our exports.

There will be no savings at all from leaving the EU for the next few years, we still have to pay them until Dopey Dave has finalised negotiations, which is a maximum of 2 years.

We will then have to cope with the aftermath of us leaving, which will cost in terms of paying back what we owe them for EIB Loans etc.

There will also. of necessity, be more unemployment until we find different markets for our goods.

All of which we can cope with, difficult, costly and if Dopey Dave had done it differently, mostly avoidable.

However the big unknown is this, the International Money Markets.

We have no control over these at all, we owe £1.5 Trillion to them and need to borrow £70 Billion a year just to keep going, even with all the cuts we have had so far.

If they downgrade us, our Interest Payments go up, we are short of cash to keep going, the cost of investments for our Industry goes up and we are in a Credit Squeeze.

The Bank of England has built up reserves of £88 billion in case this happens, enough to keep us going for a year and to defend the £ for three weeks to stabilise the markets.

If that is not enough, we are in a serious devaluation situation.

Remember the the £ in your pocket line?

That means a hefty dose of Inflation and rising Interest rates, an economic double whammy which will hit the vast majority of people.

The big International Money lenders and speculators will make a mint, £Billions in a very short time, as will the rich here in the UK, higher Interest rates means more income if you have a few £ million in the bank.

I am still voting for out, but I have made plans, most of my shares are gone, my cash is not in £Stirling, it is in other currencies.

The £ has gone down by 10% against those currencies since November when I shifted it.

I am no great financier, never have been, but my two kids, who both want to stay in the EU, are much better at finance than I am so I am doing what they advised.

They both want to protect their inheritance.

Sod father, lets look after our money.

I can't say that I blame them.

Re: Brexit could 'blow £100bn hole in economy'

Its an outing im looking forward to

Re: Brexit could 'blow £100bn hole in economy'

As no one really knows what is going to happen its all guesses anyway, so out for me and we do still work.

Re: Brexit could 'blow £100bn hole in economy'

I'm sick of straight bananas, dodgy light bulbs and low powered vacuum cleaners so will be voting out. All the statistics mean nothing to me here in the real World and never will.