04-04-2019, 02:09 PM
101
Re: Theresa May to Make A Statement Soon
There is a lot of talk about asking for a long extension to article 50 in which case we would take part in the EU elections.I wonder if the EU have thought this through,
...we have 72 MEPs and the elections take place every 5 years,
...they are already aware of a lot of disruptive UKIP members could be voted in by angry leave supporters and cause problems,
..say we have a long extension a year + and our MEPs have taken their seats, if we then leave there will be 72 empty seats and years to go before another election. It would be very disruptive to the EU parliament to have to have elections to replace such a large number of MEP s.
I don't think a long extension is a realistic option for them.
04-04-2019, 02:32 PM
102
Re: Theresa May to Make A Statement Soon
Originally Posted by Meg
->
There is a lot of talk about asking for a long extension to article 50 in which case we would take part in the EU elections.I wonder if the EU have thought this through,
...we have 72 MEPs and the elections take place every 5 years,
...they are already aware of a lot of disruptive UKIP members could be voted in by angry leave supporters and cause problems,
..say we have a long extension a year + and our MEPs have taken their seats, if we then leave there will be 72 empty seats and years to go before another election. It would be very disruptive to the EU parliament to have to have elections to replace such a large number of MEP s.
I don't think a long extension is a realistic option for them.
So far, the proposal in the EU is to reduce (yes reduce) the number of MEP seats from 751 to 705 when we leave.
This means that there will be a redistribution of our 72, with 46 held in reserve (for new nations joining).
The distribution will include +5 seats for France, +5 for Spain +3 to Italy and other member states getting one here and one there. What this means is that Germany, who already have the maximum of 96 MEPs will have these other member states getting more voting rights and making it easier to block Germany in the EU Parliament by clubbing together.
So.... if we are to be included in the elections the choices are ...
1. We go back with 72 seats which means France, Italy, Poland, Spain will most likely veto any extension because they don't want the anti-EU UK taking their voting rights they have just been given.
2. We only get the 46 seats that are "reserved" and are back in the EU with less voting rights (from 72) - "backstop light" and below Poland
3. We have no seats (or 1 seat) which means that the EU have 45 seats in reserve and the UK enter the EU Parliament as if we were in the backstop.
That's how I see it with option 3 being the one I think will be one they go for.
So it's Mays backstop now for 2 years, Mays deal for 2 years, then the backstop or we leave with no withdrawal deal on 12th April.
04-04-2019, 02:45 PM
103
Re: Theresa May to Make A Statement Soon
More good news, first Germany going into recession and now Italy.https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...rowth-forecast
04-04-2019, 02:48 PM
105
Re: Theresa May to Make A Statement Soon
Originally Posted by Bread
->
So far, the proposal in the EU is to reduce (yes reduce) the number of MEP seats from 751 to 705 when we leave.This means that there will be a redistribution of our 72, with 46 held in reserve (for new nations joining).
The distribution will include +5 seats for France, +5 for Spain +3 to Italy and other member states getting one here and one there. What this means is that Germany, who already have the maximum of 96 MEPs will have these other member states getting more voting rights and making it easier to block Germany in the EU Parliament by clubbing together.
So.... if we are to be included in the elections the choices are ...
1. We go back with 72 seats which means France, Italy, Poland, Spain will most likely veto any extension because they don't want the anti-EU UK taking their voting rights they have just been given.
2. We only get the 46 seats that are "reserved" and are back in the EU with less voting rights (from 72) - "backstop light" and below Poland
3. We have no seats (or 1 seat) which means that the EU have 45 seats in reserve and the UK enter the EU Parliament as if we were in the backstop.
That's how I see it with option 3 being the one I think will be one they go for.
So it's Mays backstop now for 2 years, Mays deal for 2 years, then the backstop or we leave with no withdrawal deal on 12th April.
we have not as yet left the EU only extended article 50 so if we haven't left before the EU elections in May (by passing the withdrawal agreement) and have to take part in them we will still be paying into the EU and are still entitled to our 72 seats.
04-04-2019, 02:49 PM
106
Re: Theresa May to Make A Statement Soon
Originally Posted by Bread
->
More good news, first Germany going into recession and now Italy.https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-...rowth-forecast
By the time our glorious leaders have finished fannying about, the EU Empire will have collapsed and broken into lots of little pieces.
When that happens, they're going to have to make some decisions all on their own.
04-04-2019, 02:52 PM
107
Re: Theresa May to Make A Statement Soon
Originally Posted by Meg
->
Bread we have not as yet left the EU only extended article 50 so if we haven't left before the EU elections in May (by passing the withdrawal agreement) and have to take part in them we will still be paying into the EU and are still entitled to our 72 seats.
04-04-2019, 02:52 PM
108
Re: Theresa May to Make A Statement Soon
Originally Posted by JBR
->
Encouraging.By the time our glorious leaders have finished fannying about, the EU Empire will have collapsed and broken into lots of little pieces.
When that happens, they're going to have to make some decisions all on their own.
04-04-2019, 02:56 PM
109
Re: Theresa May to Make A Statement Soon
Originally Posted by Bread
->
Looks like the Eurosceptic peers in the House of Lords might filibuster Yvette Cooper-Balls bill and put off votes to stop it becoming law.There is a god !
Originally Posted by Meg
->
People need to be careful playing games .The Cooper bill (if it gets through the Lords, some are now stalling it) says the PM must ask the EU for an extension to article 50 next week at the meeting and bring it back to parliament to be agreed .
So if it isn't agreed there and then by the MEPs at the EU meeting, by the time parliament has met discussed and voted on it the MEPs will have gone home
If they grant an extension to article 50 unlike other occasions when they have settled a date, because of Cooper's bill it now has to come back to parliament to be agreed and we are due to leave on the 12th .
04-04-2019, 02:59 PM
110
Re: Theresa May to Make A Statement Soon
Originally Posted by Bread
->
The EU have already published how the seats will be redistributed, Meg. There is a proposal out already on the EU web site. It doesn't matter if we have left or not, the other member states will want their extra voting rights now and veto the extension.
|
|
