In Boris Johnson’s first year since winning a majority of 80, he has shed as many key aides as most prime ministers do in a full term. He’s already on to his second chancellor and his second cabinet secretary, while two of his one-time closest Downing Street advisers are now firmly on the outside.
Even for a politician famed for reinvention, it risks looking careless. He’s also seen his relationship with his parliamentary party plummet – he has gone from being viewed as a freedom-loving Brexiteer to an “authoritarian” politician at odds with many of his MPs on the issue of the day: coronavirus.
The problem for the prime minister is that going into 2021, there is little to suggest his problems are subsiding any time soon. If anything, they are about to get worse.
But for all the bad news, in Downing Street there is still optimism that next year can in the medium term be much better than what came before. That is not just because 2020 is such a low bar. It is down to changes currently being made.
The completion of a Brexit deal on Christmas Eve is viewed as the first step to a brighter political landscape. “A lot of us have looked at the past few months and decided the government is incompetent; the Brexit deal shows that actually the PM can get things done,” says an MP from the 2015 intake.
But any reputation for competence in the long term rests on a successful vaccine rollout - Johnson’s promises of a return to normal are now a running joke among his colleagues.
The departure of Vote Leave aides and the arrival of the new chief of staff, Dan Rosenfield, and press spokesperson, Allegra Stratton, is meant to herald a less combative era with more parliamentary outreach.
Yet this is where the biggest risk lies for Johnson in 2021: who will MPs blame when something goes wrong? If restrictions run past the spring? If the union looks in jeopardy? If tax rises land in the wrong place?
Over the past year, angered MPs have been quick to turn on those around Johnson, whether it was bad comms, bad scientific advice or simply the existence of Dominic Cummings. A lot of the people who were being blamed for mistakes are now gone and he doesn’t have an obvious human shield.
The prime minister enters the new year with the hope that he can get his premiership back on track with new aides to help him achieve it. But in doing so, Johnson has also made himself more politically accountable. As a parliamentary colleague puts it:
“You can get rid of the team once. The next time things go wrong people might conclude that you are the problem – not the people around you.”