Where are the doom-mongers now?

Sorry, I just had to steal it from the DE's headline, it was just too good to pass over.

This article has just been flagged up as breaking news and it's all based on EU generated data .

I wonder what Solasch, Banchory and numbers will have to say about this really good news for the UK economy. Fancy German companies investing in the UK, WOW!

Re: Where are the doom-mongers now?

I'm waiting for the first cries of derision because you've quoted The Express.
Never mind that they're just the messenger or that most of our media are so pro-EU that they never ever post anything even remotely positive about a post-Brexit EU.


It's of no great surprise to me nor I suspect to most reasonable people that most things will carry on pretty much as before.
There will be ups and downs as there have always been.
But for now the country is in a pretty good place and with the will of the people combined with some positive input from our government we at last have the opportunity to move ahead.

Another example of positivity is with news in The Telegraph that a quarter of homes are selling within a week of coming onto the market!

"A quarter of homes put on the market last month sold in under a week as unprecedented demand continued to propel asking prices to record heights.

The number of properties selling in fewer than seven days in March was the highest ever recorded by property website Rightmove.

Frenzied demand is still far outpacing supply in what has been described as the strongest sellers' market in a decade, with more than nine new applicants registering for every property for sale in the UK. "

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/property...coming-market/
*Yes it's from The Telegraph.
So you might not be able to read it.
Either subscribe; take advantage of the free trial; or rely upon what I've posted to give you the general idea.

Re: Where are the doom-mongers now?

German companies have always invested in the UK. No doubt, the UK is one of the most important markets for German companies who have invested 160 billion Euros in the UK and employ about 400,000 people in 2,500 German branches. They have always taken a strong interest in British-German trade relations and were kind of caught on the hop when Brexit came although it was to some extent predictable.

The British-German Chamber of Commerce (BGCoC) does not seem to be as neutral as The German Chamber of Industry and Commerce who in its recent survey "Going international 2021" including 1,500 German companies states that business has been on the decline since Brexit. 57% of German companies are expecting a further deterioration of business relationships in the 12 months ahead while 15 per cent are planning on relocating business activities to other markets or have already done so. A glance at BGCoC's website shows that there are no recent documents supporting the statements made by DE. What can be read there, though, is "One should not expect the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement to undergo major changes in the years to come – it is what it is and, in essence, it is now about adjusting one’s business to the new framework. "
So, that seems to be somewhat in contrast to what DE is reporting, sadly without substantiating its claims.

Needless to say that trade relations will pick up a again sooner or later but what evidence is there that this is happening right now?

https://www.dihk.de/de/themen-und-po...rtschaft-35870


https://grossbritannien.ahk.de/brexi...haeftsfuehrers

Re: Where are the doom-mongers now?

Statistics take months to gather and collate so what is happening now won't be known for another three months or more.
Even then there have always been anomolies, so years would be better - decades possibly before we know how trade is really doing.


Your input is interesting but (with my apologies here for being brutally honest) it doesn't really mean very much for a number of reasons, one of which you have already hinted-at which is that different chambers of commerce have different stances.
Another which you have again touched-upon is that German business has indeed seen decreasing exports to the UK since the referendum in 2016 while by contrast UK exports to Germany - while declining - have been doing so at a slower rate.

So we are back to forecasts, and you've supplied those from German sources regarding what they think will happen to German/UK trade.
If these are even reasonably accurate then other forecasts suggest that they aren't going to have any great impact upon the UK economy because regarding this year and the next few years these suggest that UK growth will be well ahead of Germany's.

The IMF forecast for 2021 says UK = 5.3% vs Germany 3.6% and the figures are similar for 2022.
As you might have seen in other parts of the forum, those IMF estimates are on the low side for the UK from recent forecasts with the consensus suggesting UK growth will be ahead of every other major economy for the next few years.

But these, like your own examples, are forecasts.
Educated guesses if you will.
The reality at the end of the day could well be very different.

But there are a few pointers that in fact the UK is indeed (for now at least) doing as well as the growth forecasts suggest.

* A record £5.1 billion has been funnelled by investors into British startups in the first three months of this year, accounting for seven of the top 10 biggest funding rounds in the period.

* Unemployment is steady at 4.9 (lower than Germany) ; inflation has risen slightly to 1%; and optimism among UK business leaders has hit record highs

* The government's popularity has risen to a 14-point lead over the main opposition, suggesting that the public are if not rapturous at least acknowledging that their personal circumstances are good enough to keep them happy.

* As earlier: one in 4 houses new-to-market are selling within a week - and prices continue to rise too. You can't sell houses if nobody can afford them or if they don't want to buy, so people are obviously considering their futures to be secure-enough to buy what is for many the largest single purchase they will ever make.

There's more but I risk being accused of waxing lyrical, and I'm not.
But IMHO for the first time in a long, long time this country - despite years of dire warnings, remember - has the opportunity to do well and people are beginning to increasingly see that for themselves.
Even in these forums there are contributors saying that they are busier than they have ever been.
Again IMHO but now that the world is on the cusp of a new era it is an ideal time to change direction from the older ways of doing things that have never worked very well, and that doesn't only apply to our trading relationships.

Whether or not we do indeed make the most of such an opprtunity is of course another thing entirely and here we are again having gone full-circle because we again won't really know how that has gone for decades.

Re: Where are the doom-mongers now?

Excellent news PV.

I welcome all foreign investment in the UK...
well, apart from French. I'm afraid I don't trust them.

Re: Where are the doom-mongers now?

maybe we will start manufacturing products in this country instead of importing. That would create more and more jobs for our people. Well lets hope that is the way things will go

Re: Where are the doom-mongers now?

If only.

Re: Where are the doom-mongers now?

If ever we get to that, the nationals need reminding that reading the newspaper in working hours is a no-no.

Re: Where are the doom-mongers now?

There have been many Newspaper exploiters at an employers expense.

Re: Where are the doom-mongers now?

The ones I saw have probably now left the building.