Re: EU and UK Agree Solution on the Internal Market Bill

For once Laura Keunssberg has got it just about right, as she Tweets:
"If you’re feeling cheery - it points towards a better mood that could produce compromises for a deal.
If you’re not - it also makes it easier for UK to walk away without one. Beware sages using it as definitive proof either way! "
https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status...rc=twsrc%5Etfw

Re: EU and UK Agree Solution on the Internal Market Bill

He should stay at home

Re: EU and UK Agree Solution on the Internal Market Bill

But he's not going to.
It seems that he's off for a spot of dindins with Ursula tomorrow (Wednesday) evening - as Percy suggested earlier.

"I look forward to welcoming UK Prime Minister @BorisJohnson
tomorrow evening."
https://twitter.com/vonderleyen/stat...rc=twsrc%5Etfw

' The Prime Minister’s spokesman said: “The PM will travel to Brussels tomorrow for dinner with VDL to continue discussions on the future relationship between the UK and the EU.” '
https://www.express.co.uk/news/polit...de-deal-latest

' “The prime minister is obviously going to Brussels in the next few days and we hope that there will be movement on the EU side,” Gove said, adding the principles of British sovereignty had to be respected. '
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-br...KBN28I2KI?il=0

Re: EU and UK Agree Solution on the Internal Market Bill

Nothings changed. There's no point

Re: EU and UK Agree Solution on the Internal Market Bill

I tend to agree.

IMHO though: Boris does however (as I have said before, many times) have to make it look like he is trying as much as possible before a no deal Brexit is announced if that is what it must come to.
The EU must realise that it is unreasonable to ask any country to cede sovereignty.
(Personally I think they do, hence the Gove/Šefčovič maybe-deal announced earlier which only applies if a deal is reached.)

So, as I see it there are now only three or four possible outcomes:

First, no deal.

Second a deal which then a member country like France (or indeed our own Parliament, or even both) could still veto.
(The UK Parliament must agree a deal too but IMHO that - if no sovereignty is ceded - would have relatively clear passage.)

Third a deal which is quickly ratified by both the UK and by the EU.

Fourth is that vdLeyen and Boris still cannot reach agreement but neither will call "no deal" (for whatever reason, but by now I think "we're close" won't cut it any more) so that time just runs out and it is no deal by default; I think this is probably the least likely.

We have been waiting long enough and have seen deadlines come and go.
Tomorrow evening however could well see the final outcome.

Re: EU and UK Agree Solution on the Internal Market Bill

Hi

Whatever happened to we hold all the Cards?

We can have our Cake and eat it?

We have an oven ready Deal?

Then we have Gove.

Nobody voted for No Deal.

Re: EU and UK Agree Solution on the Internal Market Bill

Try to keep up

Re: EU and UK Agree Solution on the Internal Market Bill

Who are the ones panicking that time is running out and are seeing member states pressure them to produce a deal?
That's right, the EU.
Tick tock.



The EU are cherry-picking by trying to get the UK to cede sovereignty; since this is unprecedented globally as well as within any EU trade deals to date, who wants the cake if not the EU?

We had a deal oven-ready but the EU would rather try to use the refrigerator and cause a severe chill.
They will not go for any deal because, they say, we are geographically too close!
Of course it has nothing whatsoever to do with the fact that they are pooh-scared that we are going to show other members just how much the EU is really holding them back; no, not at all.


We have Gove, who has just decisively shown that the EU were wrong to try and use Ireland as a pawn because they have backed down on their demands.


Nobody voted for the EU, not one person in all the years that we were a member right up until 2016.
They voted for the then EEC and the EU and duplicitous UK politicians led us into something that - at the first time of asking - the UK people said they don't want.
Then, just to make sure following a few years of the self-interested gits trying to suggest that it was all a mistake, a General Election confirmed that the British people really do want to be free of the EU.


So where on Earth Swimmy comes up with these weird notions is baffling unless he's either pro-EU despite saying he wants Brexit, or he's fallen for the EU propaganda.
I'm too polite to mention another possibility but it might be evident from my recent chats with Swimmy.

Re: EU and UK Agree Solution on the Internal Market Bill

With the Irish Border issue resolved, which looks like a workable solution (although I'm still suspicious), there will no hard border on the Island of Ireland and the GFA remains unaffected. So far, the EU's biggest threat, weaponising the Irish border has turned into something of a damp squib.

This means that the EU are "off the hook" for lying about the Irish border and trade integrity under a no deal situation. This also means that e-borders are indeed possible to track goods just like has been mentioned for years. If you want a good example, just buy something that is delivered by DPD. You get regular updates of where your parcel is, where it's been and when it will arrive within a one hour time slot. This technology is already available and has been for years as I've just illustrated.

So this leaves the UK and the EU with some options ...

1. There is no-deal, in which case the message to the member states from the commission would be that when a country leaves, the remaining ones are punished by not having any trade relationships with the one who quits. It's their fault for not keeping the UK in the EU and not being as difficult as they could have been. In this case, the UK retains its sovereignty and we trade on WTO terms. The UK gets a better deal (a good one) than the EU (a bad one).

2. There is no deal but a stand-still arrangement on trade until a trade deal is agreed sometime in 2021. In which case, why not just sign up to the UK trade deal in the first place ??. In the meantime, UK businesses look elsewhere for trade because of continued uncertainty with UK/EU trading arrangements. However, it's doubtful this would happen anyway as it could be seen as extending the transition period while we are out of the EU - bad for politics. In this case, the UK would walk away and use WTO terms - a good deal for the UK a bad deal for the EU (see above). The UK retains its sovereignty.

3. The UK trade deal on offer is signed = we retain our sovereignty. The EU has access to our fishing grounds, we get a good deal but the EU a worse one than what they had while we were an EU member. The best option for the UK and the EU

4. The deadlock continues in which case the UK leaves on WTO terms. We retain our sovereignty. We get a good deal, the EU a bad one.

Re: EU and UK Agree Solution on the Internal Market Bill

Poor Ireland.
"IFAC warns 6% may be knocked off GDP if no Brexit deal"

"even if there is a free trade agreement, long-term Irish GDP could decrease by around 3%.
But Ms Lawless said that could double in a no-deal scenario to 6%, which would be the equivalent of around €21bn, based on Ireland's GDP figure for last year of €356bn."
https://www.rte.ie/news/business/202...o-brexit-deal/

Wait until it hits them and we'll see how the Irish react to that.
€21 billion per year!