Re: EU Poker . . A Desperate Germany Blinks First
And in English (sort of, thankyou Google)
Risk of recession increases, German economy shrinking in second quarter Germany's economy is on the brink
Trade conflicts and a weaker global economy have slowed the export-dependent German economy in the second quarter: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) decreased in the second quarter compared to the previous quarter by 0.1 percent, the Federal Statistical Office said on Wednesday based on preliminary data. At the beginning of the year, the German economy had grown by 0.4 percent.
If the economy shrinks again in the current summer quarter, experts speak of a "technical recession". There were last two consecutive quarters of minus at the turn of the year 2012/13.
The Institute for Macroeconomics and Economic Research (IMK) currently estimates the danger of a recession at 43 percent. "Germany's economy is on the edge," said the scientific director of the IMK, Sebastian Dullien. "Fact is: The German economy has been moving forward only for a year in crawlspace," said the Germany chief economist of UniCredit, Andreas Rees. There are many uncertainties for the second half of the year and also for 2020. "In addition to Brexit, this is above all the US-China trade dispute and possible US tariffs on European cars," warned Rees.
"Germany's economy is on the edge"
Worrying news has not been missing in the end: industrial production and exports in Germany have declined significantly. In the second quarter, too, development was curbed by foreign trade. Exports of goods and services fell more sharply than imports compared to the previous quarter. Private consumption rose, companies invested more. However, construction spending declined following a strong increase at the beginning of the year due to the comparatively mild winter.
Expectations of economic development in the republic are weak: The Center for European Economic Research (ZEW) reported yesterday that economic expectations of financial experts for Germany in August have fallen to their lowest level in nearly eight years. The index was minus 44.1 points, the long-term average is 21.6 points. LBBW chief economist Uwe Burkert spoke of a "recession warning signal" in view of the latest ZEW figures.
The Federal Government is meanwhile alarmed, wants to prevent in the case of a economic crisis the sharpest effects for the labor market with a program. However, Chancellor Angela Merkel rejects an active growth program despite the doldrums and risks such as Brexit. "I currently see no need for a stimulus package," she said Tuesday.
The federal government expects overall economic growth of 0.5 percent for 2019. In 2018, it was still enough for a plus of 1.4 percent.
with news agencies