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11-01-2019, 03:09 PM
211

Re: No-deal Brexit impacts

Originally Posted by swimfeeders ->
Hi

Some boring technical bits.

About 30% of our WTO imports come through the big ports in the Netherlands and then by road through Dover.

At the moment, customs checks etc are done when they enter the EU, that will no longer be the case when we leave and we must do them here.

We are not yet ready for this.

Dover is ringed by cliffs, we cannot do them there, we have less than 90 spaces at our inland clearing facility a few miles up the motorway.

Calais is flat and has acres of space and the staff to do these checks on goods entering the EU.

The EU have said, in their published documents, that in the event of a No Deal, they will not impose additional checks on UK goods entering the EU for a limited period.

The only exception to this will be foods and agricultural products, plants, seed potatoes etc.

These will require a Health Certificate.

We do not have enough trained staff to do these.

Years ago we stopped training our staff in meat hygiene, we went to the EU System of OVS, all of our OVS staff are actually from the EU and they have been leaving.

The EU Countries have upped their wages to attract them.

There is also a shortage of qualified staff to sign Health Certificates for non fresh meat products.

Since the cuts began they have been reduced by around 20% and training has stopped.

The devil is in the detail.

We have not prepared for Brexit well and the impact will be much greater than it should have been.

We have a blinkered control freak in charge, her way or no deal.

Her way leaves us tied in, No Deal hits us harder than any other option.

We have less than 90 days to go, a complete mess of our own making.

Irrespective of the mess we are in, we voted leave.

I do not want a second Referendum and neither do I want us to go begging to the EU for an extension to Article 50.

We leave in March.

There is a way out of this, take the standard WTO Trade Deal and the Transition period.

Unfortunately we seem to stuck between May's Deal and No Deal.
Interesting stuff in this Swimfeeders, thanks. I'm a bit confused by the last statement though, I thought that if there were no deal then by default we end up with standard WTO terms - i.e. WTO terms and no deal are effectively the same thing. Have I misunderstood what you were saying?
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11-01-2019, 03:46 PM
212

Re: No-deal Brexit impacts

Hi

There is a huge difference.

A standard WTO deal would be largely tariff free and we would have a Transition Period to adapt.

All existing Trade Deals we have as part of the EU would continue during the Transition Period.

A No Deal means just that, we leave in March with no Transition Period and no Trade Deals with anyone.

I am at a complete loss to understand why May ruled out a standard WTO Trade Deal, it meets all the Red Lines.
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11-01-2019, 04:34 PM
213

Re: No-deal Brexit impacts

Originally Posted by swimfeeders ->
Hi

There is a huge difference.

A standard WTO deal would be largely tariff free and we would have a Transition Period to adapt.

All existing Trade Deals we have as part of the EU would continue during the Transition Period.

A No Deal means just that, we leave in March with no Transition Period and no Trade Deals with anyone.

I am at a complete loss to understand why May ruled out a standard WTO Trade Deal, it meets all the Red Lines.
Something to do with a £40 billion ransom demand, perhaps?
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11-01-2019, 04:41 PM
214

Re: No-deal Brexit impacts

Originally Posted by JBR ->
Something to do with a £40 billion ransom demand, perhaps?
Hi

It would be the same under any way of leaving with a 2 year Transition Period.

If she had got ready for WTO Rules straight away we would not have needed a Transition Period.
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11-01-2019, 04:45 PM
215

Re: No-deal Brexit impacts

Originally Posted by swimfeeders ->
Hi

It would be the same under any way of leaving with a 2 year Transition Period.

If she had got ready for WTO Rules straight away we would not have needed a Transition Period.
Perhaps we should leave without an expensive transition period.

We can pay the necessary tariffs on WTO trading with the £40 billion we save, and that's only until we have our own free-trade agreements.
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11-01-2019, 06:35 PM
216

Re: No-deal Brexit impacts

Originally Posted by JBR ->
Perhaps we should leave without an expensive transition period.

We can pay the necessary tariffs on WTO trading with the £40 billion we save, and that's only until we have our own free-trade agreements.
Hi

It will be interesting to see what happens if we leave without paying a penny.

It could go to International Court or the EU could use WTO Tariffs to sanction the UK.

If the money markets take a view that we have defaulted our debts will be junk bond status and we will be paying a mint in Interest on our huge debts.
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11-01-2019, 07:10 PM
217

Re: No-deal Brexit impacts

Originally Posted by Julie1962 ->
It would help if people could just accept others have a different opinion, there are very few facts about brexit it's unknowns and opinions. Predictions like mystic meg makes etc can't be proved until after we leave. Sadly I am beginning to think some remainers would rather we fail to prove they were right than thrive and see they were wrong all along. That's going to be what stops us going forward IMO


I don't want the country to be run by OPINION.

Truth is important otherwise we go back to the drivel of Johnson, Gove, Farange etc etc.

Everyone can have their own opinions, they can't have their own FACTS. It's about time people started to recognize this.

Oh! and yes, some smarty pants will come back with 'its a fact we are leaving on the 29th' not yet it isn't, it only becomes a fact when it happens.
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11-01-2019, 07:13 PM
218

Re: No-deal Brexit impacts

Originally Posted by swimfeeders ->
Hi

It will be interesting to see what happens if we leave without paying a penny.

It could go to International Court or the EU could use WTO Tariffs to sanction the UK.

If the money markets take a view that we have defaulted our debts will be junk bond status and we will be paying a mint in Interest on our huge debts.

Not sure whether you noticed yesterday SF but the pound lost against EVERY WORLD currency.
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11-01-2019, 07:21 PM
219

Re: No-deal Brexit impacts

Originally Posted by itsme ->
Not sure whether you noticed yesterday SF but the pound lost against EVERY WORLD currency.

Should offset any tarrifs then
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11-01-2019, 07:38 PM
220

Re: No-deal Brexit impacts

Originally Posted by swimfeeders ->
Hi

It will be interesting to see what happens if we leave without paying a penny.

It could go to International Court or the EU could use WTO Tariffs to sanction the UK.

If the money markets take a view that we have defaulted our debts will be junk bond status and we will be paying a mint in Interest on our huge debts.
I've yet to hear details of exactly what we owe the EU and for what reason.
 
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