22-07-2019, 10:57 AM
11
Re: Today on Brexit Central, Austin Mitchell Nails it Again !
Originally Posted by gascony
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Explain your trade deficit argument please. About half our exports go to the EU - that looks like a major dependency. About 8% of the EU exports go to the UK - that looks like a non-dependency. So explain why you think they depend on the UK.
Do you honestly believe the EU 27 do not need our business ?
Another new overseas poster that mysteriously appears on the Brexit thread...
22-07-2019, 11:00 AM
12
Re: Today on Brexit Central, Austin Mitchell Nails it Again !
The EU 27 would prefer to continue to do business with the UK, but very simply will not suffer as much as the UK will in the event of problems with that trade. The UK sends half its exports to the EU. The EU would not like to lose the 8% of exports it sends to the UK, but clearly as its only 8% of its total exports it can relatively easily take that hit. So again, explain why you see any sort of parity in dependency for trade.22-07-2019, 11:10 AM
13
Re: Today on Brexit Central, Austin Mitchell Nails it Again !
Originally Posted by gascony
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The EU 27 would prefer to continue to do business with the UK, but very simply will not suffer as much as the UK will in the event of problems with that trade. The UK sends half its exports to the EU. The EU would not like to lose the 8% of exports it sends to the UK, but clearly as its only 8% of its total exports it can relatively easily take that hit. So again, explain why you see any sort of parity in dependency for trade.
Well no because we will have the option from buying from elsewhere.
For the EU, that 8% of exports includes around 800,000 German cars .. it's a huge hit to the EU economy ... and then factor in all your food and drink etc from France and Italy, Ireland etc.
The UK trades less each year with the EU - we trade more with the rest of the world.
8% on average of the GDP of 27 countries is a huge amount, your unemployment figures are bad enough without waving goodby to 8% of your GDP.
Besides as far as our 8% of exports is concerned, if you want to have a better picture of what that means, there is only Cyprus (I think) that exports less that us
22-07-2019, 12:04 PM
14
Re: Today on Brexit Central, Austin Mitchell Nails it Again !
Actually the EU also have the option of buying elsewhere. Did you forget that?I can see that maths is not your strong point. Let me try again - 8% is less than 50%. The actual number is 48% of the UK trade goes to the EU. So you are right, 52% is more than 48%. But 48% is an enormous amount to try to sell elsewhere; whereas another 8% is large but not so massive.
Let's try another way of viewing the challenge. If any country needed to up their exports to other places and managed to do so at, say an additional 3% per year (and if you've ever been involved in selling overseas then you will know this in itself is a challenge) then:
It will take the EU less than 3 years to recover its sales.
It will take the UK 16 years to recover its export levels.
22-07-2019, 12:11 PM
15
Re: Today on Brexit Central, Austin Mitchell Nails it Again !
Originally Posted by gascony
->
Actually the EU also have the option of buying elsewhere. Did you forget that? I can see that maths is not your strong point. Let me try again - 8% is less than 50%. The actual number is 48% of the UK trade goes to the EU. So you are right, 52% is more than 48%. But 48% is an enormous amount to try to sell elsewhere; whereas another 8% is large but not so massive.
Let's try another way of viewing the challenge. If any country needed to up their exports to other places and managed to do so at, say an additional 3% per year (and if you've ever been involved in selling overseas then you will know this in itself is a challenge) then:
It will take the EU less than 3 years to recover its sales.
It will take the UK 16 years to recover its export levels.
22-07-2019, 12:18 PM
16
Re: Today on Brexit Central, Austin Mitchell Nails it Again !
Originally Posted by gascony
->
Actually the EU also have the option of buying elsewhere. Did you forget that? I can see that maths is not your strong point. Let me try again - 8% is less than 50%. The actual number is 48% of the UK trade goes to the EU. So you are right, 52% is more than 48%. But 48% is an enormous amount to try to sell elsewhere; whereas another 8% is large but not so massive.
Let's try another way of viewing the challenge. If any country needed to up their exports to other places and managed to do so at, say an additional 3% per year (and if you've ever been involved in selling overseas then you will know this in itself is a challenge) then:
It will take the EU less than 3 years to recover its sales.
It will take the UK 16 years to recover its export levels.
Sure, you have the option to buy elsewhere, but the protectionist nature of the EU would mean your French farmers would be out of work and travel to Paris for jobs that don't exist.
Where are you getting those figures from ?
For a start, the EU economies are in decline - you need to recover this first, including your car industry, then persuade Mr Trump not to stick 25-30% tariffs on them. Oh and pay off the fines from the diesel scandal ...
The 800,000 sold to the UK will become more expensive too and we will simply by Nissan, Toyota and Ford as they have far superior green technologies anyway (as we are doing now).
The UK benefits the least out of the EU 28, when it comes to the single market. When we leave we can make trade deals that benefit us, not the 27. I'm not sure you figured that into your equation.
22-07-2019, 12:25 PM
17
Re: Today on Brexit Central, Austin Mitchell Nails it Again !
Originally Posted by gascony
->
Actually the EU also have the option of buying elsewhere. Did you forget that? I can see that maths is not your strong point. Let me try again - 8% is less than 50%. The actual number is 48% of the UK trade goes to the EU. So you are right, 52% is more than 48%. But 48% is an enormous amount to try to sell elsewhere; whereas another 8% is large but not so massive.
Let's try another way of viewing the challenge. If any country needed to up their exports to other places and managed to do so at, say an additional 3% per year (and if you've ever been involved in selling overseas then you will know this in itself is a challenge) then:
It will take the EU less than 3 years to recover its sales.
It will take the UK 16 years to recover its export levels.
22-07-2019, 12:26 PM
18
Re: Today on Brexit Central, Austin Mitchell Nails it Again !
Originally Posted by Solasch
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You better not get into a discussion with du pain. He is the grenade of this forum.
22-07-2019, 12:35 PM
19
Re: Today on Brexit Central, Austin Mitchell Nails it Again !
You make multiple points and many errors.1. Where do I get my figures from? Just google the questions and there are many sources - the common figures are I showed.
2. The EU economies are in decline - wrong. Consider Poland, its being growing at about 4% pa for the last 20 years. True, some countries growth is low but even the worst performing EU countries are slowly pulling back from the terrible 2008 crash. Please provide figures to support your claim otherwise we can simply reject it.
3. The UK benefits least out of the single market. How do you figure that? The single market was a Thatcher concept that hugely benefits the UK. As is evidenced by the 48% of our exports going to the EU.
4. We will get better trade deals out of the EU. No, we are very unlikely to do that. We benefit from the EU agreed trade deals with many countries and these are on terms that the UK alone are very unlikely to improve on. Why would any country give a better deal to a place that offers less than the whole of the EU?
22-07-2019, 12:41 PM
20
Re: Today on Brexit Central, Austin Mitchell Nails it Again !
Originally Posted by gascony
->
Explain your trade deficit argument please. About half our exports go to the EU - that looks like a major dependency. About 8% of the EU exports go to the UK - that looks like a non-dependency. So explain why you think they depend on the UK.
Where do you think this money comes from??
It can only come from two sources?
1, our trade with the rest of the world! In which case that
trade is subsidising our trade with eu??
2. We print the money??
Neither option makes sense imo!!
Regards Donkeyman!
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