Re: No-deal Brexit impacts
Originally Posted by Meg
Taken from the link...
In other words you can post as many figures and analyses as you like and they can only be speculation because no one
knows for sure what the outcome will be when we leave the EU with or without an agreement.
We will just have to wait and see .
Thanks for the reply Meg, I appreciate you looking at the report. The point that disclaimer is making though is that while it is hard to make an absolute
forecast of economic growth (as no-one knows what else in the world will hit or help our economy over the coming years), the report looks at the relative
impacts of the economy under different scenarios. So it is
quite valid to compare a future "no-deal Brexit" scenario with a future "staying in the EU" scenario.
Of course the analysis can't be exact, but it does quote the range of other independent studies and the uncertainty ranges in the modelling. In all cases the basic message of big economic damage from a no-deal Brexit comes through clearly.
Sadly, the option of "waiting and seeing" won't help. If we stay in the EU, we can get our existing rebates and opt-outs continuing. If we leave, we need all countries in the EU to agree new terms (including Spain, who may choose to use Gibraltar as a bargaining chip). If we leave there is no quick or easy way to rebuild what we would have lost.