Join for free
Reply
Page 1 of 23 1 2 3 11 > Last »
Tonyposts
New Member!
Tonyposts is offline
United Kingdom
Joined: Dec 2018
Posts: 13
Tonyposts is male 
 
04-01-2019, 06:28 PM
1

No-deal Brexit impacts

I read through the Government's analysis from November 2018 on different Brexit scenarios recently. The impacts of a no-deal Brexit seem pretty significant and I'm surprised there isn't more discussion on the numbers.

Comparing a no-deal Brexit with staying in the EU, the estimated long-term impacts are:

- Positive long-term savings of around £22billion p.a. from no more EU budget contribution and some income from Customs fees; but
- Long-term costs of £116billion p.a. from reduced trade, lower GDP and employment and hence reduced tax revenues
-Net budget deficit compared to staying in the EU of around £95 billion p.a.

£95 billion is a really big figure. It means a lot of further cuts to the NHS, schools, police, defence and welfare.

What are your thoughts on this? I'd particularly like to hear from anyone who thinks a no-deal Brexit isn't too much of a problem.

Please have a look at the report yourselves at:
https://assets.publishing.service.go...alysis__1_.pdf
Reply With Quote
Meg's Avatar
Meg
Supervisor
Meg is offline
Worcestershire, England
Joined: Aug 2009
Posts: 36,336
Meg is female  Meg has posted at least 25 times and has been a member for 3 months or more 
 
04-01-2019, 07:02 PM
2

Re: No-deal Brexit impacts

Taken from the link...

This analysis is not an economic forecast for the UK economy. In particular:•It only considers the potential economic impacts that are specific to EU exit. Leaving the EU is just one of many factors that will influence the UK's economic performance in the long run. Other factors such as the rise of global value chains, the increasing importance of services trade, technological developments, and global demographics are held constant; •The analysis does not make judgements about any future UK Government policy decisions or responses; and•The estimates show the relative impacts of different trading arrangements in the long term and do not estimate the absolute increase or decrease in economic output compared to today. The results therefore show the broad relative impacts of the different scenarios, and in all scenarios the economy would be expected to grow.No modelling can completely capture the complex ways in which the UK economy could be affected by exiting the EU, particularly given the unprecedented circumstances of the UK's departure. While the analysis draws on a robust set of tools and evidence, there is an inherent uncertainty around this type of economic analysis. The results are therefore presented as ranges, and should be interpreted with caution.
In other words you can post as many figures and analyses as you like and they can only be speculation because no one knows for sure what the outcome will be when we leave the EU with or without an agreement.

We will just have to wait and see .
Reply With Quote
Banchory
Senior Member
Banchory is offline
Kent
Joined: Dec 2018
Posts: 104
Banchory is male 
 
04-01-2019, 07:08 PM
3

Re: No-deal Brexit impacts

Originally Posted by Tonyposts ->
I read through the Government's analysis from November 2018 on different Brexit scenarios recently. The impacts of a no-deal Brexit seem pretty significant and I'm surprised there isn't more discussion on the numbers.

Comparing a no-deal Brexit with staying in the EU, the estimated long-term impacts are:

- Positive long-term savings of around £22billion p.a. from no more EU budget contribution and some income from Customs fees; but
- Long-term costs of £116billion p.a. from reduced trade, lower GDP and employment and hence reduced tax revenues
-Net budget deficit compared to staying in the EU of around £95 billion p.a.

£95 billion is a really big figure. It means a lot of further cuts to the NHS, schools, police, defence and welfare.

What are your thoughts on this? I'd particularly like to hear from anyone who thinks a no-deal Brexit isn't too much of a problem.

Please have a look at the report yourselves at:
https://assets.publishing.service.go...alysis__1_.pdf
If it doesn’t suit the Brexiteers view of booming free trade with
the world it will be declared to be one or more of the following:

Scaremongering
Produced by “experts”who are always proved wrong
We knew/are prepared to endure hardship for the sake of our sovereignty
We endured hardship in the War for the sake of our freedom
Fake news
It’s the EU punishing us
The EU is a failing project
It’s all our politicians fault

There are probably some I’ve missed but they will no doubt hark back to times past or be empty sound bytes

We are now in a bizarre situation whereby we have a captain saying if their deal is not accepted they’ll sink the ship and the passengers in first and third class are screaming sink the ship. There are however only lifeboats for the first class passengers
Reply With Quote
d00d's Avatar
d00d
Senior Member
d00d is offline
London, UK
Joined: Jul 2018
Posts: 1,607
d00d is male  d00d has posted at least 25 times and has been a member for 3 months or more 
 
04-01-2019, 08:47 PM
4

Re: No-deal Brexit impacts

Originally Posted by Tonyposts ->
I'd particularly like to hear from anyone who thinks a no-deal Brexit isn't too much of a problem.]

You are in the right place for that. Old fogies website, alive & kickin at death's door, preparing to burn beacons on every hilltop, stocking up with corned beef, digging shelters, loving every minute.
Reply With Quote
Tonyposts
New Member!
Tonyposts is offline
United Kingdom
Joined: Dec 2018
Posts: 13
Tonyposts is male 
 
04-01-2019, 08:52 PM
5

Re: No-deal Brexit impacts

Originally Posted by Meg ->
Taken from the link...



In other words you can post as many figures and analyses as you like and they can only be speculation because no one knows for sure what the outcome will be when we leave the EU with or without an agreement.

We will just have to wait and see .
Thanks for the reply Meg, I appreciate you looking at the report. The point that disclaimer is making though is that while it is hard to make an absolute forecast of economic growth (as no-one knows what else in the world will hit or help our economy over the coming years), the report looks at the relative impacts of the economy under different scenarios. So it is quite valid to compare a future "no-deal Brexit" scenario with a future "staying in the EU" scenario.

Of course the analysis can't be exact, but it does quote the range of other independent studies and the uncertainty ranges in the modelling. In all cases the basic message of big economic damage from a no-deal Brexit comes through clearly.

Sadly, the option of "waiting and seeing" won't help. If we stay in the EU, we can get our existing rebates and opt-outs continuing. If we leave, we need all countries in the EU to agree new terms (including Spain, who may choose to use Gibraltar as a bargaining chip). If we leave there is no quick or easy way to rebuild what we would have lost.
Reply With Quote
Solasch
Senior Member
Solasch is offline
Netherlands
Joined: Sep 2018
Posts: 1,038
Solasch is male  Solasch has posted at least 25 times and has been a member for 3 months or more 
 
04-01-2019, 08:56 PM
6

Re: No-deal Brexit impacts

Originally Posted by Banchory ->
If it doesn’t suit the Brexiteers view of booming free trade with
the world it will be declared to be one or more of the following:

Scaremongering
Produced by “experts”who are always proved wrong
We knew/are prepared to endure hardship for the sake of our sovereignty
We endured hardship in the War for the sake of our freedom
Fake news
It’s the EU punishing us
The EU is a failing project
It’s all our politicians fault

There are probably some I’ve missed but they will no doubt hark back to times past or be empty sound bytes

We are now in a bizarre situation whereby we have a captain saying if their deal is not accepted they’ll sink the ship and the passengers in first and third class are screaming sink the ship. There are however only lifeboats for the first class passengers
You missed an important one, marking a turn in the thinking of brexiteers. For a time they were sure of a positive endscenario: the EU needs us harder than we the EU, they will come running to trade with us.

Since the contours of a no deal brexit are becoming more firm, the latest mantra is: nobody can predict the outcome, nobody knows, it's speculation all around, and finally WE JUST HAVE TO WAIT AND SEE.

That is a lethargy that is killing the UK. Now is the time for positive action. Demand that the government revokes article 50 to save the future of the UK. As always in history it is the young who overcome the lameness of their parents.
Reply With Quote
JBR's Avatar
JBR
Chatterbox
JBR is online now
Cheshire, UK
Joined: Sep 2015
Posts: 19,941
JBR is male  JBR has posted at least 25 times and has been a member for 3 months or more 
 
04-01-2019, 09:01 PM
7

Re: No-deal Brexit impacts

I wonder whether it might be a good idea to create a special section of this web site to accommodate Project Fear?

Avoiding a specific section would be far easier than scrolling past tedious posts by the usual suspects.
Reply With Quote
Solasch
Senior Member
Solasch is offline
Netherlands
Joined: Sep 2018
Posts: 1,038
Solasch is male  Solasch has posted at least 25 times and has been a member for 3 months or more 
 
04-01-2019, 09:08 PM
8

Re: No-deal Brexit impacts

Originally Posted by JBR ->
I wonder whether it might be a good idea to create a special section of this web site to accommodate Project Fear?

Avoiding a specific section would be far easier than scrolling past tedious posts by the usual suspects.
As an alternative, a section for those piping up about the benefits of (a no deal) brexit. Reason: arguments against brexit are increasing, while the benefits diminish in numbers.
Reply With Quote
Fogey
Senior Member
Fogey is offline
Shropshire
Joined: Apr 2012
Posts: 636
Fogey is male  Fogey has posted at least 25 times and has been a member for 3 months or more 
 
04-01-2019, 09:13 PM
9

Re: No-deal Brexit impacts

Ye Gods! Why don't you morons give it a rest.
Reply With Quote
Banchory
Senior Member
Banchory is offline
Kent
Joined: Dec 2018
Posts: 104
Banchory is male 
 
04-01-2019, 09:32 PM
10

Re: No-deal Brexit impacts

Originally Posted by JBR ->
I wonder whether it might be a good idea to create a special section of this web site to accommodate Project Fear?

Avoiding a specific section would be far easier than scrolling past tedious posts by the usual suspects.
As predicted that empty sound byte “project fear” gets rolled out again when the brexit fallacies are exposed

Yes that it, create a separate section to hide away what you have no robust response to.
Reply With Quote
Reply
Page 1 of 23 1 2 3 11 > Last »

Thread Tools


© Copyright 2009, Over50sForum   Contact Us | Over 50s Forum! | Archive | Privacy Statement | Terms of Use | Top

Powered by vBulletin Copyright ©2000 - 2019, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.